OK so... Quito is indicating that the "shifts" he is seeing are definitely Quebec going Bloc en masse as a reaction to Sachi Kurl. Assuming O'Toole doesn't get momentum elsewhere in the RoC from the debate, it could still be positive for the Liberals. But... if he does, and "Bloc Majoritaire" happens because the modern-day Salome of the Angus Reid Institute delivered Trudeau's head to Legault on a platter, that's not going to bode well either.
I was concerned that the Saint Jody vitriol would blunt any Trudeau momentum, but now I don't think the debate references have had any particular impact (though I did love Trudeau's "I'm not taking any lessons in caucus management from you" remark to Paul) I also think now the book "revelations" are basically going to get lost in a sea of all the other political news we'll be seeing next week. Certainly Canadian Indigenous leadership won't be supporting any of her Trudeau-bashing right now either.
Quito Maggi says to hold off on making any definitive predictions as of yet, that a tightening of the race could occur and it's too early to say whether or not the latest numbers are "noise." He says there are "potential signals" in his data that could point to a shift in the race by Monday or Tuesday. I'm not sure what this is, it could be a Bloc recovery after the debates and Legault's endorsement of a CPC government, PPCers coming home to the CPC, or even NDPers sticking by Singh just to stick it to Trudeau.
He's also coming out with a poll on who he feels won the debate. Chances are it wasn't Trudeau. Plus there's the "Liberal-friendly weekend effect" that may fade as we get closer to e-day. Or, the opposite may occur and the LPC lead is real due to NDPers/Greens coming home or whatever factor. He's saying that it's still too soon to make a firm shot call, at least based on his data.
At least per your model and some others the Liberals are favoured, but there's still a good chance it's very close. I just know I won't be able to relax if and until I see Trudeau making an acceptance speech on the night of September 20th.
OK so... Quito is indicating that the "shifts" he is seeing are definitely Quebec going Bloc en masse as a reaction to Sachi Kurl. Assuming O'Toole doesn't get momentum elsewhere in the RoC from the debate, it could still be positive for the Liberals. But... if he does, and "Bloc Majoritaire" happens because the modern-day Salome of the Angus Reid Institute delivered Trudeau's head to Legault on a platter, that's not going to bode well either.
I have not cared what Quito has said about this campaign at any time, so on earth would I care now
I was concerned that the Saint Jody vitriol would blunt any Trudeau momentum, but now I don't think the debate references have had any particular impact (though I did love Trudeau's "I'm not taking any lessons in caucus management from you" remark to Paul) I also think now the book "revelations" are basically going to get lost in a sea of all the other political news we'll be seeing next week. Certainly Canadian Indigenous leadership won't be supporting any of her Trudeau-bashing right now either.
Quito Maggi says to hold off on making any definitive predictions as of yet, that a tightening of the race could occur and it's too early to say whether or not the latest numbers are "noise." He says there are "potential signals" in his data that could point to a shift in the race by Monday or Tuesday. I'm not sure what this is, it could be a Bloc recovery after the debates and Legault's endorsement of a CPC government, PPCers coming home to the CPC, or even NDPers sticking by Singh just to stick it to Trudeau.
He's also coming out with a poll on who he feels won the debate. Chances are it wasn't Trudeau. Plus there's the "Liberal-friendly weekend effect" that may fade as we get closer to e-day. Or, the opposite may occur and the LPC lead is real due to NDPers/Greens coming home or whatever factor. He's saying that it's still too soon to make a firm shot call, at least based on his data.
At least per your model and some others the Liberals are favoured, but there's still a good chance it's very close. I just know I won't be able to relax if and until I see Trudeau making an acceptance speech on the night of September 20th.
Frank Graves has also deleted his tweets forecasting an LPC win. So quite possible it's still too early to tell.
Frank Graves has a habit of deleting most of his "foretelling" tweets after a day.