I think there is one thing that is certain. Whatever happens in Canada regarding elections is determined by what happens in the US.
What is not certain at all, is what is going to happen in the US. Full out stupid tariffs war? Continued 51st state talk by Trump. Trump gets bored and decides to start picking on another country? It is impossible to tell with the chaos in the Us government right now.
I am maybe not in the most popular camp but I believe the chances are high that the next election will be in the fall. First, I think the NPD will walk back from his commitment to vote the non-confidence at the first occasion, especially if the current pollining trend continue for them. As Evan pointed out, they are now at risk of losing everything. Second, I am pretty sure that no opposition party, except the bloc, really wants an election at the middle of a tarif war. Third, I also think Carney will prefer to have some time to build his team and have something to run on
Canada will face an endless loop of tariff crises until it has a government with a strong mandate to open trade negotiations. The election needs to be as as soon as possible.
I agree with most of what you've written here. The country would be better served by giving Carney a chance to govern and demonstrate an alternative to a potential PP government.
Two problems.
First, the NDP are stupid enough to bring down the government. Singh has repeated many times he is serious and will vote against them at the first chance. His credibility is really on the line here. I know he is not a serious person and disingenuous. But for now, I believe him. We can't fantasize about another world where he changes his mind.
Second, if Carney puts forward a motion to cancel the carbon tax (or the increase to it) and the Conservatives votes against it, that is not going to be spun as PP being "pro carbon tax." Give me a break. He will say, convincingly to many, Carney cannot be trusted to abandon a policy he has promoted so enthusiastically. "Don't be fooled by false Liberal promises to end this tax, only a PP government will truly protect you from it."
Blah blah blah - I know, it's nonsense, but it sells. No one would believe PP doesn't want the carbon tax gone. He'll say only he / the Cons can be trusted to really do it. I think your proposed would make Carney look cynical and superficial. Furthermore, we do not want the narrative shifting back to the carbon tax either! This is horrible ground for the Liberals.
Carney's big selling point is he is a serious man who can stand up to Trump in a way PP cannot. PP has far too many people in his big tent that are secretly (openly?) Trump fans. There are many more Danielle Smiths and Kevin O'Leary's hiding under the covers. Expose them! Hit those nerves! Force them to condemn Trump as much as possible and see if they can even do it or if they can't bring themselves to say so. Carney can be the true defender of Canada.
That is the only way to win. And Trump has handed him a lifeline. They should be spending money non-stop ASAP to colour the narrative accordingly. If PP is able to define himself as the strong defender of Canada against Trump despite all evidence to the contrary it's game over.
But we need to plan for an election in the spring. It's happening.
Carney can't put forward any motions as he isn't and still won't be elected during this Parliament.
The Liberals and NDP want a trade war as an excuse to justify their inclinations towards protecting industries and borrowing money to stimulate the economy. Bond markets will eventually drive the dollar into the ground and push up interest rates, but not in the election timeframe.
All but single digit Liberal MPs voted for a NDP motion on Palestine so unless the NDP are also pro-genocide keep your dumbassery out of my comment section
The site also tracks how Canada supplies various military parts used to help bomb children in tents, or put sniper's bullets into toddler's skulls.
23/155 Liberal MPs signed the arms embargo petition. Is that really good enough?
Several NDP MPs have made statements reacting to Trump's call for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and Palestine, like Matthew Green. Have you seen one from a Liberal MP, because I haven't.
Standing up against apartheid states used to be a Canadian tradition. Supporting international humanitarian law used to be a Canadian value. Can you honestly say they are today under the Liberals, after the last 15 months?
On the subject of dumbassery: Substack has a block function, genius – it's how you can stick your head in the sand about Canada's complicity in genocide like the majority of the compromised media.
I think there is one thing that is certain. Whatever happens in Canada regarding elections is determined by what happens in the US.
What is not certain at all, is what is going to happen in the US. Full out stupid tariffs war? Continued 51st state talk by Trump. Trump gets bored and decides to start picking on another country? It is impossible to tell with the chaos in the Us government right now.
I am maybe not in the most popular camp but I believe the chances are high that the next election will be in the fall. First, I think the NPD will walk back from his commitment to vote the non-confidence at the first occasion, especially if the current pollining trend continue for them. As Evan pointed out, they are now at risk of losing everything. Second, I am pretty sure that no opposition party, except the bloc, really wants an election at the middle of a tarif war. Third, I also think Carney will prefer to have some time to build his team and have something to run on
Canada will face an endless loop of tariff crises until it has a government with a strong mandate to open trade negotiations. The election needs to be as as soon as possible.
I agree with most of what you've written here. The country would be better served by giving Carney a chance to govern and demonstrate an alternative to a potential PP government.
Two problems.
First, the NDP are stupid enough to bring down the government. Singh has repeated many times he is serious and will vote against them at the first chance. His credibility is really on the line here. I know he is not a serious person and disingenuous. But for now, I believe him. We can't fantasize about another world where he changes his mind.
Second, if Carney puts forward a motion to cancel the carbon tax (or the increase to it) and the Conservatives votes against it, that is not going to be spun as PP being "pro carbon tax." Give me a break. He will say, convincingly to many, Carney cannot be trusted to abandon a policy he has promoted so enthusiastically. "Don't be fooled by false Liberal promises to end this tax, only a PP government will truly protect you from it."
Blah blah blah - I know, it's nonsense, but it sells. No one would believe PP doesn't want the carbon tax gone. He'll say only he / the Cons can be trusted to really do it. I think your proposed would make Carney look cynical and superficial. Furthermore, we do not want the narrative shifting back to the carbon tax either! This is horrible ground for the Liberals.
Carney's big selling point is he is a serious man who can stand up to Trump in a way PP cannot. PP has far too many people in his big tent that are secretly (openly?) Trump fans. There are many more Danielle Smiths and Kevin O'Leary's hiding under the covers. Expose them! Hit those nerves! Force them to condemn Trump as much as possible and see if they can even do it or if they can't bring themselves to say so. Carney can be the true defender of Canada.
That is the only way to win. And Trump has handed him a lifeline. They should be spending money non-stop ASAP to colour the narrative accordingly. If PP is able to define himself as the strong defender of Canada against Trump despite all evidence to the contrary it's game over.
But we need to plan for an election in the spring. It's happening.
Carney can't put forward any motions as he isn't and still won't be elected during this Parliament.
The Liberals and NDP want a trade war as an excuse to justify their inclinations towards protecting industries and borrowing money to stimulate the economy. Bond markets will eventually drive the dollar into the ground and push up interest rates, but not in the election timeframe.
Missing the main point: What will the NDP demand for an Autumn election?
Will Carney be forced to walk back his moronic cancellation of a wealth tax?
How about implementing a full arms embargo on genocidal entities? (Would the 100s of pro-genocide Liberal MPs dare to prevent this?)
How about fast-forwarding a multi-billion dollar fund for union-built climate infrastructure?
Will Carney negotiate in good faith – or is he stupid enough to roll the dice.
All but single digit Liberal MPs voted for a NDP motion on Palestine so unless the NDP are also pro-genocide keep your dumbassery out of my comment section
https://armsembargonow.ca/
The site also tracks how Canada supplies various military parts used to help bomb children in tents, or put sniper's bullets into toddler's skulls.
23/155 Liberal MPs signed the arms embargo petition. Is that really good enough?
Several NDP MPs have made statements reacting to Trump's call for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and Palestine, like Matthew Green. Have you seen one from a Liberal MP, because I haven't.
https://substack.com/@matthewgreenndp/p-156613665
Standing up against apartheid states used to be a Canadian tradition. Supporting international humanitarian law used to be a Canadian value. Can you honestly say they are today under the Liberals, after the last 15 months?
On the subject of dumbassery: Substack has a block function, genius – it's how you can stick your head in the sand about Canada's complicity in genocide like the majority of the compromised media.