The Abacus report give one of the better insights in how the electorate in Canada is thinking about the various parties. For me the most interesting answer was this one:
40% say they would be more likely to vote Liberal if the economy improved
Unemployment is as low as it can go. Decent economic growth in the past years despite a pandemic. Why do people think that the economy is poor right now and needs to improve?
I suspect it is actually not about the state of the economy, but a function of confidence in the economy. How confident are people that their salaries will keep up with inflation (so far they have)? Are the retirement savings enough to retire in 15 years? Etc. etc. A lot of this is “feeling” and not fact.
I believe the challenge for the Liberals is to have Canadians “feel” good about the economy. Facts probably play only a minor role in this.
I must have missed Poilievre's "positive" ads. Even the ones where he's tryin' ta be a regular guy, y'know, come across as smarmy and insincere. But yes, I am biased.
The polls peaked at 15 for the tories but have decline to 14 two weeks ago and 13 now. People may be tired of Trudeau but they may now be getting sick of PP's overexposure.
Polls this far out are like a sports score at halftime. No one should think the final score is going to match, but it’s a good indicator of who’s been performing better and who needs to adjust their strategy.
I’d like to be wrong, but I think Team Trudeau is going to be that old-school coach who has three plays that got them this far, and won’t even consider in-game adjustments even though it’s no longer working. The fans watching can see that the game is still winnable and are going to yell louder and louder at the screen as the team keeps running the same plays over and over
Yes. it's the economy. But the economy has multiple aspects to it. Perhaps the most important currently is housing. Can anyone, even the Liberals, turn around the housing situation in the next two years? Doubtful They can make a start if the provinces and municipalities cooperate, but there is just so far they can go in what amounts to a year.
Inflation. We are told that it will be back to around 2% by the end of 2024. But we have had very rosy forecasts for the last two years. And as Tiff Macklem said recently, it does not help that fiscal and monetary policy are working at cross-purposes. Governments should cut spending. Will they?
Interest rates. Depend in large part on inflation.
Unemployment. Here the picture is more rosy, and we can hope that this lasts. But large bets on Stellantis, Volkswagen, and now perhaps Toyota, don't help. Canada shouldn't "bet the farm" on two or three large projects, we should diversify more.
Carbon tax. That's a difficult one. The government was doing the right thing, but the voters obviously don't like it. So which comes first, votes or the green economy?
Polls: We have left probability samples far behind and now rely on opt-in samples. Who knows how representative these are? One thing I'm pretty sure of -- the response rates, if calcualted in any meaningful wat, are pretty low. So I agree that polls, especially two years ahead of an election, are pretty meaningless. Unfortunately, they seem to be enough to panic the government into unforced mistakes. Ouch!
Polls mean nothing, most are conservative controlled. I’m in the polls but am never ever asked the political questions. Media is killing us, they accept money over facts. The conservatives, oil corporations and republicans control a lot of media sources and it’s huge. If people are still falling for Poilievre then the stupidity on politics needs more education. Most don’t realize this is provincial responsibility that’s hi jacking the economy. Once voters understand the difference in responsibilities maybe people will get smarter. We have a conservative-republican party in Canada that plays the stupid. I know I drank with conservatives. People get who they vote for and if people think they are safe under Pierre, then we have a stupidity problem in Canada. Like the Tshirt I bought “stupid people, new pandemic”. You just need common sense to know the dangers of Pierre and his extremism. As for Singh how long do we have to say, get rid of Mr Rolex? He’s more conservative then NDP. Why does he even care the conservatives are trying to trash him with Trudeau? He needs guts and say I vote for democracy, for the people. When people attack me as a liberal/NDP, I thank them. The liberals had a big pandemic on their plate with a sick far right group of Neanderthals and religious cults that have riches. It’s a case of evil versus intelligence. We need people to stop supporting crap media and demand facts. We have idiots controlling us, and the power of greed. We have a republican/conservative government with money, willing to take everything away that made Canada great. And if people have gotten to dumb to catch on, then they need a lesson. But that lesson comes with a deep cost. Instead of always blaming the libs, how about reporting the good they’ve done? Right now they are the better choice for the people, we need to make voting more comfortable. Immigrants say they are too afraid to go vote because people stare, or say things to them. There is droves of rural voting but not city? In Sask Brad Wall added more rural ridings then city. Why aren’t we talking about that? Is this happening in other provinces?
The Abacus report give one of the better insights in how the electorate in Canada is thinking about the various parties. For me the most interesting answer was this one:
40% say they would be more likely to vote Liberal if the economy improved
Unemployment is as low as it can go. Decent economic growth in the past years despite a pandemic. Why do people think that the economy is poor right now and needs to improve?
I suspect it is actually not about the state of the economy, but a function of confidence in the economy. How confident are people that their salaries will keep up with inflation (so far they have)? Are the retirement savings enough to retire in 15 years? Etc. etc. A lot of this is “feeling” and not fact.
I believe the challenge for the Liberals is to have Canadians “feel” good about the economy. Facts probably play only a minor role in this.
I must have missed Poilievre's "positive" ads. Even the ones where he's tryin' ta be a regular guy, y'know, come across as smarmy and insincere. But yes, I am biased.
The polls peaked at 15 for the tories but have decline to 14 two weeks ago and 13 now. People may be tired of Trudeau but they may now be getting sick of PP's overexposure.
Abacus is led by a Harperite, Coletto. Why is this not worth pointing out?
Polls this far out are like a sports score at halftime. No one should think the final score is going to match, but it’s a good indicator of who’s been performing better and who needs to adjust their strategy.
I’d like to be wrong, but I think Team Trudeau is going to be that old-school coach who has three plays that got them this far, and won’t even consider in-game adjustments even though it’s no longer working. The fans watching can see that the game is still winnable and are going to yell louder and louder at the screen as the team keeps running the same plays over and over
Wouldn’t the heating oil carve out be an in-game adjustment? Albeit a poorly execute in-game adjustment.
Yes. it's the economy. But the economy has multiple aspects to it. Perhaps the most important currently is housing. Can anyone, even the Liberals, turn around the housing situation in the next two years? Doubtful They can make a start if the provinces and municipalities cooperate, but there is just so far they can go in what amounts to a year.
Inflation. We are told that it will be back to around 2% by the end of 2024. But we have had very rosy forecasts for the last two years. And as Tiff Macklem said recently, it does not help that fiscal and monetary policy are working at cross-purposes. Governments should cut spending. Will they?
Interest rates. Depend in large part on inflation.
Unemployment. Here the picture is more rosy, and we can hope that this lasts. But large bets on Stellantis, Volkswagen, and now perhaps Toyota, don't help. Canada shouldn't "bet the farm" on two or three large projects, we should diversify more.
Carbon tax. That's a difficult one. The government was doing the right thing, but the voters obviously don't like it. So which comes first, votes or the green economy?
Polls: We have left probability samples far behind and now rely on opt-in samples. Who knows how representative these are? One thing I'm pretty sure of -- the response rates, if calcualted in any meaningful wat, are pretty low. So I agree that polls, especially two years ahead of an election, are pretty meaningless. Unfortunately, they seem to be enough to panic the government into unforced mistakes. Ouch!
Your readers might be interested in this:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-have-political-polls-become-a-crutch-for-journalists/
Opt-in polls shouldn’t refer to “Canadians” but to members of our panel, etc. Also, no pollster called Quebec in 2018.
Polls mean nothing, most are conservative controlled. I’m in the polls but am never ever asked the political questions. Media is killing us, they accept money over facts. The conservatives, oil corporations and republicans control a lot of media sources and it’s huge. If people are still falling for Poilievre then the stupidity on politics needs more education. Most don’t realize this is provincial responsibility that’s hi jacking the economy. Once voters understand the difference in responsibilities maybe people will get smarter. We have a conservative-republican party in Canada that plays the stupid. I know I drank with conservatives. People get who they vote for and if people think they are safe under Pierre, then we have a stupidity problem in Canada. Like the Tshirt I bought “stupid people, new pandemic”. You just need common sense to know the dangers of Pierre and his extremism. As for Singh how long do we have to say, get rid of Mr Rolex? He’s more conservative then NDP. Why does he even care the conservatives are trying to trash him with Trudeau? He needs guts and say I vote for democracy, for the people. When people attack me as a liberal/NDP, I thank them. The liberals had a big pandemic on their plate with a sick far right group of Neanderthals and religious cults that have riches. It’s a case of evil versus intelligence. We need people to stop supporting crap media and demand facts. We have idiots controlling us, and the power of greed. We have a republican/conservative government with money, willing to take everything away that made Canada great. And if people have gotten to dumb to catch on, then they need a lesson. But that lesson comes with a deep cost. Instead of always blaming the libs, how about reporting the good they’ve done? Right now they are the better choice for the people, we need to make voting more comfortable. Immigrants say they are too afraid to go vote because people stare, or say things to them. There is droves of rural voting but not city? In Sask Brad Wall added more rural ridings then city. Why aren’t we talking about that? Is this happening in other provinces?