Well Polievre did eliminate the the in his slogans. Its are taxes, build homes instead of verbing the nouns.
Polievre is a Muppet and the most loathsome of politicians, the ones that say no, create nothing, and have done nothing else. You can criticize Carney about inflation fighting, and that is an opinion I do not share. But he was making policy, dealing in the big leagues in and out of government. I want someone in charge who is as serious as a heart attack and as skilled as the surgeon doing the surgery. Carney is that guy. Polievre is not even the orderly mopping the floors in that operating room.
This is most interesting, and, as one whose interest in economics came late, I'd have to do some research before really tackling your argument about Carney's approach as Governor of both Central Banks...you've certainly brought up a very important point. One thing, though -- I wonder if you underestimate Carney's ability to learn from experience? Granted that he seems to have brought the same viewpoint to both of his central banking appointments, but the impression I get from reading his book is that he thinks things through carefully, does his research, is prepared to learn...in other words, Carney the Prime Minister intends to be a different animal from Carney the Central Banker. Now, I may be seeing the man through rose-coloured glasses, but so far, I'm convinced that Carney wants to build our economy for Canadians.
The ‘tell’ is Carney’s self-description as a pragmatist. Carney is not an ideologue—he understands how the world economy works, and how Canada works, at a deep level from his experience. He will do what is necessary to build up the economy and move us away from US integration and towards Europe (and the rest of the world).
It might be worth a full post on this and I'd eat it up like a loaf of freshly baked bread, but it really feels like Poilievre is running to be leader of the opposition more than he's running to be PM. It's a comment I heard a few times before the campaign started in earnest, but every time parties have done that in my recent recollection, it's gone poorly.
The NDP in 2019 and 2023 in Alberta were strongly running campaigns on why the UCP were bad, not why they would be good if they formed government. Andy Scheer and Erin O'Toole also fell into this trap.
Poilievre has not articulated a vision for Canada. He is a transactional leader and that does not generate much enthusiasm. He comes across as shallow as a mud puddle, and I believe it is because he has no life experience outside of the bubble of Parliament.
The Con strategy is to whip up a base of Maple MAGAs believing it is enough to win an election. In a “normal” year, the Con numbers might be sufficient to win a minority government but this is now pretty much a two-party race and 60 beats 40 every time.
Punditry has Abacus at LPC +6 which translstes to around +10 in other models.
It's gonna take a massive series of gaffes by Carney to overcome this.
He's survived the candidate, Polytechnique misnaming and "That's enough!" So...not sure what CPC can do now other than to raise John A. MacDonald monuments on every street corner.
Is it fair to say that the CPC is running a bad campaign when they are polling towards their traditional ceiling? I mean they definitely aren’t adding to their tent, but they could pull in a vote share that gave Harper his majority. I’m losing sleep at night not worrying about the CPC, but about a Bloc/NDP resurgence making PP the PM.
Yes, I think the Bloc will end up doing better than what’s being projected - OTOH, there are so many scandals because the CAQ is such a disaster (I know not the same party but still), some Quebeckers who usually vote Bloc May vote Lib out of spite or frustration? 🤷🏻♀️
I have a feeling the CP will also do better than expected in the 905 - I hope I am wrong!
NDP, I don’t believe they will lose all those seats
The conservatives are running a horrible campaign. Ya dont say.
The day that the Tariffs were announced and the news of our country being economically attacked, I checked my emails, I received my daily conservative email. The header on the email was : Mark do you like cheap beer. Really? You have the president of the US speaking of annexation and then adding tarrifs. And your email to a Canadian is about cheap beer?
Dont get me wrong like any Red Blooded Canuck I love my CANADIAN BEER. But Please.......
Well Polievre did eliminate the the in his slogans. Its are taxes, build homes instead of verbing the nouns.
Polievre is a Muppet and the most loathsome of politicians, the ones that say no, create nothing, and have done nothing else. You can criticize Carney about inflation fighting, and that is an opinion I do not share. But he was making policy, dealing in the big leagues in and out of government. I want someone in charge who is as serious as a heart attack and as skilled as the surgeon doing the surgery. Carney is that guy. Polievre is not even the orderly mopping the floors in that operating room.
I love this! 😂
Well drawn conclusion.
Poilievre did not spend enough time building the case for his ability to do the job.
Which is AWFUL considering he has had 20 freaking years to prepara
He spent lots of time undermining Erin O'toole. Perhaps?
This is most interesting, and, as one whose interest in economics came late, I'd have to do some research before really tackling your argument about Carney's approach as Governor of both Central Banks...you've certainly brought up a very important point. One thing, though -- I wonder if you underestimate Carney's ability to learn from experience? Granted that he seems to have brought the same viewpoint to both of his central banking appointments, but the impression I get from reading his book is that he thinks things through carefully, does his research, is prepared to learn...in other words, Carney the Prime Minister intends to be a different animal from Carney the Central Banker. Now, I may be seeing the man through rose-coloured glasses, but so far, I'm convinced that Carney wants to build our economy for Canadians.
The ‘tell’ is Carney’s self-description as a pragmatist. Carney is not an ideologue—he understands how the world economy works, and how Canada works, at a deep level from his experience. He will do what is necessary to build up the economy and move us away from US integration and towards Europe (and the rest of the world).
It might be worth a full post on this and I'd eat it up like a loaf of freshly baked bread, but it really feels like Poilievre is running to be leader of the opposition more than he's running to be PM. It's a comment I heard a few times before the campaign started in earnest, but every time parties have done that in my recent recollection, it's gone poorly.
The NDP in 2019 and 2023 in Alberta were strongly running campaigns on why the UCP were bad, not why they would be good if they formed government. Andy Scheer and Erin O'Toole also fell into this trap.
Poilievre has not articulated a vision for Canada. He is a transactional leader and that does not generate much enthusiasm. He comes across as shallow as a mud puddle, and I believe it is because he has no life experience outside of the bubble of Parliament.
The Con strategy is to whip up a base of Maple MAGAs believing it is enough to win an election. In a “normal” year, the Con numbers might be sufficient to win a minority government but this is now pretty much a two-party race and 60 beats 40 every time.
By FAR one of your best columns.
Punditry has Abacus at LPC +6 which translstes to around +10 in other models.
It's gonna take a massive series of gaffes by Carney to overcome this.
He's survived the candidate, Polytechnique misnaming and "That's enough!" So...not sure what CPC can do now other than to raise John A. MacDonald monuments on every street corner.
Is it fair to say that the CPC is running a bad campaign when they are polling towards their traditional ceiling? I mean they definitely aren’t adding to their tent, but they could pull in a vote share that gave Harper his majority. I’m losing sleep at night not worrying about the CPC, but about a Bloc/NDP resurgence making PP the PM.
Yes, I think the Bloc will end up doing better than what’s being projected - OTOH, there are so many scandals because the CAQ is such a disaster (I know not the same party but still), some Quebeckers who usually vote Bloc May vote Lib out of spite or frustration? 🤷🏻♀️
I have a feeling the CP will also do better than expected in the 905 - I hope I am wrong!
NDP, I don’t believe they will lose all those seats
The conservatives are running a horrible campaign. Ya dont say.
The day that the Tariffs were announced and the news of our country being economically attacked, I checked my emails, I received my daily conservative email. The header on the email was : Mark do you like cheap beer. Really? You have the president of the US speaking of annexation and then adding tarrifs. And your email to a Canadian is about cheap beer?
Dont get me wrong like any Red Blooded Canuck I love my CANADIAN BEER. But Please.......