Under the leadership of Poilievre and Byrne, the conservative MPs were forced to be nastier, meaner, uncooperative than most of them actually are. It used to be that backbenchers needed to be clapping seals, now the requirement is to be barking hyenas. And ideally hyenas that are willing to defame their colleagues from other parties while shielded by parliamentary privilege.
Who in his or her right mind would leave a successful business or academic career to join this bunch of unpleasant, unprincipled and sometimes just outright dumb people? Why would you leave a rather comfortable job in provincial politics to be bossed around by a bunch of 22 year old Poilievre wannabes?
And of course if Poilievre does not get a plurality of seats, his days as party leader are numbered. And the way it looks now, the Conservatives would have a full 4 years to select a new leader.
Doesn’t Poilievre need a majority to survive? How could the CPC form a stable government with a mere plurality? Isn’t the Bloc still too toxic in ROC to be acceptable as part of a working day-to-day majority?
(I say that not as a confirmed Bloc-hater but just to be realistic.)
1) Liberals continue to govern as a minority and get the support from the Bloc and NDP to maintain confidence of the house. Poilievre can continue his howling hyena approach as leader of the opposition claiming that the government is illegitimate.
2) Liberals decline to form government and challenge the Conservatives to form a minority government. This government would not last very long, but it would be at least a few months.
I think 1) would be very unwise for the Liberals. Let the party that got more seats try to govern, as Pierre Trudeau did in 1979.
In scenario 2), I think “a few months” is highly optimistic. The first money bill would likely bring down the government, unless the Liberals and/or the Bloc made a conscious decision to support the government while they regrouped. (I’m assuming the NDP won’t have enough seats to make a difference, but I suppose there are scenarios where the CPC could come close enough to a majority that a very small number of opposition MPs could keep them propped up.)
I arrived at a similar conclusion a few weeks ago when I heard the rumour that Andrew Scheer was being considered for Finance Minister. Which I dismissed out of hand but prompted me to look at who is in caucus and who is running that would be players for the top ministries.
The the dawning realization that the rumour wasn't quite as ridiculous as it sounds because there isn't exactly 5-10 obviously preferable picks for Poilievre for the government's most senior ministry.
Which leads to other questions like why the Finance critic's top qualification for the post is some accounting courses at SAIT. And why was a De Jong's candidacy rejected in favour of a 25 year old blueberry farmer. And why did they reject the idea of some CAQ ministers who want a good job in politics after Legault gets run out in the next election. running for the CPC.
So the CPC is proposing the run the country with the top people being the last of Harper's C and D listers, Lantsman, and JD Vance's college roommate.
Lets also remember that this is coming off the era of a conservative up cycle in provincial politics that looks to be on its way out, so there should be ample up and commers with ministry experience you can recruit if your tent is broad enough to admit them. But there's no Jim Flaherty here, there's not even an effort to recruit a half dozen potential Flahertys in the hope one or two emerges.
I tend to agree. He supported MacKay, not Harper. In early 2004, the PCs merged with the Canadian Alliance to create the CPC, and Chong joined the new party. I've always felt he was more of a moderate Conservative and would have considered voting for him to oust Trudeau. But, like you say, he simply wasn't RW enough for the rest of them.
If the CPC had stuck with O’Toole they would be in better shape than they’re in now. He was knifed for daring to try to bring a somewhat coherent environmental policy that acknowledged climate change into the CPC. The fact he was pushed out says a lot about the future of the CPC as currently constructed.
As long as the CP has social media to spread disinformation and conspiracy theories through their hundreds of shills they don’t need to recruit real talent
I cannot stand them or the foolish people who believe Pierre will give them all those tax cuts AND balance the budget, reduce spending 🤡
They don't seem interested in renewing the talent pool. They busted two potential star candidates in BC, de Jong (not qualified???? lol) and Huberman. They also acclaimed some Okanagan candidates above the choice of the ED members. It appears they want toadies, not leaders.
I expect the leadership race to include Ford, Kenney and Smith.
He’s presumably referring to the David Herle podcast, which welcomed Byrne as a regular contributor after her 2015 debacle and will no doubt welcome her again after this current debacle plays out. Tells you all you need to know about who the podcast is for.
My issue with Byrne is that she’s been instrumental in changing the political culture and discourse in an unhealthy way. She clearly applies the approach that republicans have used in the US and we can see the results.
Bryne's "small town Ontario" Conservative perspective is deeply ignorant and arrogant, but important to understand.
Her extreme conservatism and love of Florida freedumb during Covid really triggered my memories of growing up in Alberta. Super familiar insecurity.
By contrast, Teneycke, forged in Saskatchewan Reform Party conservatism, seems to have learned and adapted after living in Ottawa and Toronto for decades. By aligning himself with Ford post-2015 Harper loss instead of the ideologue Poilievre train, Kory obviously lives the strategic vision people pay him for.
It seems likely the conservative tent will rupture, as I cannot see how the prairie Cons will get along with the ON Cons.
As some other comments have noted, Chong is seemingly the most legitimate of the red Tory base, and if it was him as leader against Carney, at this specific moment where the issue of the day is tariffs and Trump... I think the Conservatives win this election. Poilievre was the right person to rally against Trudeau, he just isn't cut out for what the country is demanding right now. I don't think he's an untalented politician, but he cannot flip the switch to be anything more than a Marco Rubio style attack dog.
Regarding where the party goes after PP - would bet money on it being Danielle Smith. Before the non-Albertans utterly dismiss that... I never thought there was a shot in hell that she'd be Premier here. She is evil, but she is intelligent, and the approach she takes is massively respected by uppercase Conservatives. She doesn't have an heir apparent in Alberta, but if that gets sorted out, I think she is the person they decide on to keep the CPC base while not fracturing the party towards the PPC. She would have an absolute stronghold in most of the West with industry backing, and I think she would charm Central Canada and the East in much the same way that Doug Ford has done out West - we haven't had to directly suffer the consequences of what he's done to Ontario, so the charming folksy press conferences about stopping all US "pruh-cur-ment" are just that. Again, despite being evil, she is an excellent communicator.
Prediction: Liberals win the election; the UCP predictably throws a hissy fit and threatens separation; we have an Alberta referendum that gets massively shot down; Smith turns her focus to the federal leadership. Whether she could win, I have no idea, but I think that's the only direction they can really turn, similar to how the NDP can probably only turn to Wab Kinew after Singh.
Reading this article actually had realize one can make a lot of comparisons between the CPC and the Dems in the US. Fondly remembered politicians from yesteryear and the folks who served with them being promoted while neglecting emphasis on mentorship of new blood, or writing them off as being "too far ____" to be taken seriously.
Under the leadership of Poilievre and Byrne, the conservative MPs were forced to be nastier, meaner, uncooperative than most of them actually are. It used to be that backbenchers needed to be clapping seals, now the requirement is to be barking hyenas. And ideally hyenas that are willing to defame their colleagues from other parties while shielded by parliamentary privilege.
Who in his or her right mind would leave a successful business or academic career to join this bunch of unpleasant, unprincipled and sometimes just outright dumb people? Why would you leave a rather comfortable job in provincial politics to be bossed around by a bunch of 22 year old Poilievre wannabes?
And of course if Poilievre does not get a plurality of seats, his days as party leader are numbered. And the way it looks now, the Conservatives would have a full 4 years to select a new leader.
Doesn’t Poilievre need a majority to survive? How could the CPC form a stable government with a mere plurality? Isn’t the Bloc still too toxic in ROC to be acceptable as part of a working day-to-day majority?
(I say that not as a confirmed Bloc-hater but just to be realistic.)
If he has a plurality, two things could happen:
1) Liberals continue to govern as a minority and get the support from the Bloc and NDP to maintain confidence of the house. Poilievre can continue his howling hyena approach as leader of the opposition claiming that the government is illegitimate.
2) Liberals decline to form government and challenge the Conservatives to form a minority government. This government would not last very long, but it would be at least a few months.
I think 1) would be very unwise for the Liberals. Let the party that got more seats try to govern, as Pierre Trudeau did in 1979.
In scenario 2), I think “a few months” is highly optimistic. The first money bill would likely bring down the government, unless the Liberals and/or the Bloc made a conscious decision to support the government while they regrouped. (I’m assuming the NDP won’t have enough seats to make a difference, but I suppose there are scenarios where the CPC could come close enough to a majority that a very small number of opposition MPs could keep them propped up.)
I arrived at a similar conclusion a few weeks ago when I heard the rumour that Andrew Scheer was being considered for Finance Minister. Which I dismissed out of hand but prompted me to look at who is in caucus and who is running that would be players for the top ministries.
The the dawning realization that the rumour wasn't quite as ridiculous as it sounds because there isn't exactly 5-10 obviously preferable picks for Poilievre for the government's most senior ministry.
Which leads to other questions like why the Finance critic's top qualification for the post is some accounting courses at SAIT. And why was a De Jong's candidacy rejected in favour of a 25 year old blueberry farmer. And why did they reject the idea of some CAQ ministers who want a good job in politics after Legault gets run out in the next election. running for the CPC.
So the CPC is proposing the run the country with the top people being the last of Harper's C and D listers, Lantsman, and JD Vance's college roommate.
Lets also remember that this is coming off the era of a conservative up cycle in provincial politics that looks to be on its way out, so there should be ample up and commers with ministry experience you can recruit if your tent is broad enough to admit them. But there's no Jim Flaherty here, there's not even an effort to recruit a half dozen potential Flahertys in the hope one or two emerges.
I've always believed that Michael Chong would've won the 2019 election, but he wasn't conservative enough because he had an accrual climate policy.
I tend to agree. He supported MacKay, not Harper. In early 2004, the PCs merged with the Canadian Alliance to create the CPC, and Chong joined the new party. I've always felt he was more of a moderate Conservative and would have considered voting for him to oust Trudeau. But, like you say, he simply wasn't RW enough for the rest of them.
If the CPC had stuck with O’Toole they would be in better shape than they’re in now. He was knifed for daring to try to bring a somewhat coherent environmental policy that acknowledged climate change into the CPC. The fact he was pushed out says a lot about the future of the CPC as currently constructed.
Indeed!
Voted CPC under O'Toole, had that Boomer Dad Bod vibe mixed with boring policy dude that just worked for us.
Too bad he didn't play well with the public at large.
As long as the CP has social media to spread disinformation and conspiracy theories through their hundreds of shills they don’t need to recruit real talent
I cannot stand them or the foolish people who believe Pierre will give them all those tax cuts AND balance the budget, reduce spending 🤡
And Evan - why do you hate the Curse pod so much?! Is it that you dismiss them as old farts?
Reid's Prince Edward county vernacular adds some fun colour to the usual vanilla political discourse, and Herle asks smart questions.
I used to appreciate Jenni's shilling for the Conservatives as very revealing and useful to know (although almost as irritating as Poilievre).
Kory provides similarly useful intel on Con-world. It's good to know how they think, no?
I keep wondering about the hatred for Herle and Reid as well.
They don't seem interested in renewing the talent pool. They busted two potential star candidates in BC, de Jong (not qualified???? lol) and Huberman. They also acclaimed some Okanagan candidates above the choice of the ED members. It appears they want toadies, not leaders.
I expect the leadership race to include Ford, Kenney and Smith.
Dish on the podcast animus.
He’s presumably referring to the David Herle podcast, which welcomed Byrne as a regular contributor after her 2015 debacle and will no doubt welcome her again after this current debacle plays out. Tells you all you need to know about who the podcast is for.
Hey Greg - yeah, definitely agree that Herle's stuff is what he's talking about.
Quick check of the archives shows an awful lot of dumping on his various pods.
My question was more along the lines of what Maggie asks below - is it all that bad?
I find it informative to hear how these weirdos think (or like to present themselves as thinking).
Was wondering if maybe there was something more.
My issue with Byrne is that she’s been instrumental in changing the political culture and discourse in an unhealthy way. She clearly applies the approach that republicans have used in the US and we can see the results.
Bryne's "small town Ontario" Conservative perspective is deeply ignorant and arrogant, but important to understand.
Her extreme conservatism and love of Florida freedumb during Covid really triggered my memories of growing up in Alberta. Super familiar insecurity.
By contrast, Teneycke, forged in Saskatchewan Reform Party conservatism, seems to have learned and adapted after living in Ottawa and Toronto for decades. By aligning himself with Ford post-2015 Harper loss instead of the ideologue Poilievre train, Kory obviously lives the strategic vision people pay him for.
It seems likely the conservative tent will rupture, as I cannot see how the prairie Cons will get along with the ON Cons.
Matt Green if Hamilton Centre is on track to be the next leader of the Federal NDP once Singh is booted out. Bet in it.
As some other comments have noted, Chong is seemingly the most legitimate of the red Tory base, and if it was him as leader against Carney, at this specific moment where the issue of the day is tariffs and Trump... I think the Conservatives win this election. Poilievre was the right person to rally against Trudeau, he just isn't cut out for what the country is demanding right now. I don't think he's an untalented politician, but he cannot flip the switch to be anything more than a Marco Rubio style attack dog.
Regarding where the party goes after PP - would bet money on it being Danielle Smith. Before the non-Albertans utterly dismiss that... I never thought there was a shot in hell that she'd be Premier here. She is evil, but she is intelligent, and the approach she takes is massively respected by uppercase Conservatives. She doesn't have an heir apparent in Alberta, but if that gets sorted out, I think she is the person they decide on to keep the CPC base while not fracturing the party towards the PPC. She would have an absolute stronghold in most of the West with industry backing, and I think she would charm Central Canada and the East in much the same way that Doug Ford has done out West - we haven't had to directly suffer the consequences of what he's done to Ontario, so the charming folksy press conferences about stopping all US "pruh-cur-ment" are just that. Again, despite being evil, she is an excellent communicator.
Prediction: Liberals win the election; the UCP predictably throws a hissy fit and threatens separation; we have an Alberta referendum that gets massively shot down; Smith turns her focus to the federal leadership. Whether she could win, I have no idea, but I think that's the only direction they can really turn, similar to how the NDP can probably only turn to Wab Kinew after Singh.
Looks like we'll be back shortly to two National Conservative parties. One of the East and one for the West.
Even, do you think NDP incumbent Don Davies in Vancouver Kingsway or other 3-way splits in B.C. have a chance under current polling?
Reading this article actually had realize one can make a lot of comparisons between the CPC and the Dems in the US. Fondly remembered politicians from yesteryear and the folks who served with them being promoted while neglecting emphasis on mentorship of new blood, or writing them off as being "too far ____" to be taken seriously.