If you want to know what is coming in the form of conservative attacks, look at the Twitter feed of Brian Lilley. Based on that, we can expect the conservatives to become even more desperate.
Expect more of the following:
- Tax strategy of Brookfield while Carney was leading Brookfield
- Innuendo about Carney’s personal taxes
- Revisiting 2008 financial crisis again trying to make the point that Carney was just a spectator
- Bail issues
- Discrediting expertise and PhDs in economics
None of it will work, people want to hear how we are going to get through the Trump crisis.
I don’t know. I wouldn’t say they’ve had a bad campaign to date. They’re still above their numbers from ‘21. They’ve had some difficulties, sure, but so have all of the other parties. I think the bigger issue is structural: the context changed dramatically - Trump and tariffs, JT resigned, Carney wins leadership, key policy reversals from Libs - and the CPC were slow in adjusting to the new environment. That suggests a lack of strategic foresight and adaptability on their part, but in terms of the day-to-day tactics of running a campaign, they’ve been okay.
This is reflected in your own analysis, where you push them to focus on the things that matter but also admit they’re not that far out of it (yet, at least). My own view? This is a group that likes the smell of their own farts. I don’t expect a major campaign reorientation from them. They’ll stick to what is largely working, and what would have worked, if they were still operating in 2024.
Its seems to me that centre/centre-left political commenters such as yourself, and quit a few others, have spent most this past week talking about how the Cons can get back in the race and offering up the ways and means to do so.
I remember listening to her on the “Curse of politics”podcast, not know who she was and thinking she sounded like a little,excitable, yapping dog. I was not impressed one bit. She needs to take a breath and act like a grown up. I’m embarrassed to say she is from the same generation as I am.
Would love to actually ‘hear Jenni Byrne speaking ! Can you add any detail or nuance re Curse of Politics ? Am unaware of it completely !
She & her identical Twin Sister are a story unto their own.. oh deary me !
The bizarre thing is how Andrew Lawton & his current ‘Campaign in London South & Elgin is ‘igniting !
I’ve deep Personal & Professional background re people ‘with mental issues’ - better said - Mood Disorders as Defined within the DSM 4 & 5 Differential Diagnostic Criteria & Algorithms .. But ‘couple that’ alongside his actions re The Ottawa Occupation .. (and note Ms Supramanya now trying to scrub her involvement !)
There seems a Shit Ton of ‘former diehard Reform & Alliance Advisors, Consultants, Enablers, Public Relations wanks, Coders & DataWankers & Foot Soldiers - now attempting to LAUNDER their ‘uh ARDOUR for Harper & Ray Novak, Jason Kenney among many other CLOSET Separatists aligned with GOP / Republican ‘Black Ops’ Election Propaganda Operatives .. not to mention Evangelical Workshops on ‘How To Take Over Election District Associations & School Board - Board of Directors - the ‘IDEA’ being - Ensure Federal Candidates are ‘Only Those Aligned & Compliant’ with ‘Head Office CPC
I think Jenni Bryne once read The Prince. She doesn't read anymore because she's got all the answers. That didn't work for her before; ain't gonna work for her now.
I'm not as convinced as you are that the conservatives have any message with any punch left on crime.
The reality is that much of the screaming about "jail not bail" and so much of the data and memes that are put out into the metaverse is hopelessly skewed in order to present such a negative picture that I believe most Canadians will ultimately reject it in favour of the national unity message that is playing out in camp Carney.
The thing the Cons can’t change is that the top two issues in the campaign are Trump and the economy. Carney wins on both of those, and PP is not the guy who can knock him off his horse.
The only thing that will save the little twerp is a magic likeability pill. Policy is what we all go on about but when it boils down to it, it the decision hinges on whether or not you can see the guy running the country. I can see Carney running the country; I can also see Poilievre running the country into the ground. If he won, all Poilievre would have is "the country is broken" and still have no plan to fix it. His solution to the Trump attack is "Bring it home?" Slogans are not going to cut it. His past (convoy nonsense, incel hashtags, bitcoin foolishness etc etc) is dragging behind him like a dirty diaper. His caucus is the weakest gang of misfits we've seen in some time. Hell, the Green Party caucus could run circles around that pathetic crew. Also, what the heck is going on with the security clearance? Don't voters need to know why the future PM can or can't get one? Why hasn't this been dealt with? Carney isn't perfect but Poilievre is so bad that his own fellow conservatives in Ontario have already abandoned him. And he's aligning himself with that health-scandal tainted incompetent in Alberta. A fine strategy in the face of Trump's aggression: a Trumpy national leader cosying up to a Trumpy provincial leader to assure Canadians that they will go into battle against Trump on their behalf. You have to be kidding!
"the realignment of CPC voters to be younger and less white than in the past"
Does this require the "and"? I've been watching the rise of the manosphere's influence on younger people, and even watched the Adolescence TV series. There is something there that is so extremely different than I grew up in (I'm a white cis-hetero male in my 50's).
Do the various models being used for predictions take how certain social conservative movements have harnessed social media and anger about systemic failures in ways that social liberals have not?
I wonder if there's really much the Tories can do. They are still at about 35-40% in the polls. That is, realistically, their ceiling. Maybe they can improve by a few points if they are lucky. I will be astonished if they are consistently above 40%. That would be highly, highly unusual.
They need the NDP to do better and to pull down Carney's numbers. And Singh is a disaster.
.. seriously - with Andrew Lawton being served his own ass currently - anointed by Poilievre, Jenni Byrne & Harper .. & you still can’t ’paint recluse Candace Bergen by numbers’ into the Overall Scenario Lawton was in up to his el freako eyeballs - I’ve long suggested she got the ‘old collegial free pass to Do Not Go To Jail & Instead Spend The Rest Of Your ‘more time with family’ by retiring in a blaze of Occupation Enabler Glory Be eh ! Picked up by Canadian Security Agency ‘listeners’ while colluding either with the CPC & Lawton to Optimize the Opportunity
.. enroute home she stopped off to be Keynote Speaker at the Harper IDU Purity Ball
How many ‘Degrees of Separation between Jenni Byrne & Former Reformer Candace Bergen.. & for that matter - to The Plymouth Brethren of Guelph Notoriety ? How many Degrees to Stephen Harper & Ray Novak & Stephen Lecce ! To Preston Manning & Stockwell Day ? Where is Arthur Hamilton ? Candace was receiving Top Secret Briefings as Official Opposition Leader while leading the Poilievre ‘Final Push To His Ascent To Power.. blah blah
Pierre Poilievre is ‘one whistleblower from Historic National & International RIDICULE 🦎🏴☠️
If you want to know what is coming in the form of conservative attacks, look at the Twitter feed of Brian Lilley. Based on that, we can expect the conservatives to become even more desperate.
Expect more of the following:
- Tax strategy of Brookfield while Carney was leading Brookfield
- Innuendo about Carney’s personal taxes
- Revisiting 2008 financial crisis again trying to make the point that Carney was just a spectator
- Bail issues
- Discrediting expertise and PhDs in economics
None of it will work, people want to hear how we are going to get through the Trump crisis.
THISSSSS...do you think I give two fucks about immigration, corruption, Brookfield?
This. Is. A. Trump. Election.
Talking about ANYTHING else will rightfully have you lose.
This is NOT a regular election; stop attacking the Liberals and start being Captain Canada.
I don’t know. I wouldn’t say they’ve had a bad campaign to date. They’re still above their numbers from ‘21. They’ve had some difficulties, sure, but so have all of the other parties. I think the bigger issue is structural: the context changed dramatically - Trump and tariffs, JT resigned, Carney wins leadership, key policy reversals from Libs - and the CPC were slow in adjusting to the new environment. That suggests a lack of strategic foresight and adaptability on their part, but in terms of the day-to-day tactics of running a campaign, they’ve been okay.
This is reflected in your own analysis, where you push them to focus on the things that matter but also admit they’re not that far out of it (yet, at least). My own view? This is a group that likes the smell of their own farts. I don’t expect a major campaign reorientation from them. They’ll stick to what is largely working, and what would have worked, if they were still operating in 2024.
Its seems to me that centre/centre-left political commenters such as yourself, and quit a few others, have spent most this past week talking about how the Cons can get back in the race and offering up the ways and means to do so.
Fucking stop it!!!
Do you think Jenni Byrne reads my Substack?
Cause Liberals do, and I’d like them to know their weaknesses, but Byrne doesn’t
I remember listening to her on the “Curse of politics”podcast, not know who she was and thinking she sounded like a little,excitable, yapping dog. I was not impressed one bit. She needs to take a breath and act like a grown up. I’m embarrassed to say she is from the same generation as I am.
Would love to actually ‘hear Jenni Byrne speaking ! Can you add any detail or nuance re Curse of Politics ? Am unaware of it completely !
She & her identical Twin Sister are a story unto their own.. oh deary me !
The bizarre thing is how Andrew Lawton & his current ‘Campaign in London South & Elgin is ‘igniting !
I’ve deep Personal & Professional background re people ‘with mental issues’ - better said - Mood Disorders as Defined within the DSM 4 & 5 Differential Diagnostic Criteria & Algorithms .. But ‘couple that’ alongside his actions re The Ottawa Occupation .. (and note Ms Supramanya now trying to scrub her involvement !)
There seems a Shit Ton of ‘former diehard Reform & Alliance Advisors, Consultants, Enablers, Public Relations wanks, Coders & DataWankers & Foot Soldiers - now attempting to LAUNDER their ‘uh ARDOUR for Harper & Ray Novak, Jason Kenney among many other CLOSET Separatists aligned with GOP / Republican ‘Black Ops’ Election Propaganda Operatives .. not to mention Evangelical Workshops on ‘How To Take Over Election District Associations & School Board - Board of Directors - the ‘IDEA’ being - Ensure Federal Candidates are ‘Only Those Aligned & Compliant’ with ‘Head Office CPC
I think Jenni Bryne once read The Prince. She doesn't read anymore because she's got all the answers. That didn't work for her before; ain't gonna work for her now.
She might?
I'm not as convinced as you are that the conservatives have any message with any punch left on crime.
The reality is that much of the screaming about "jail not bail" and so much of the data and memes that are put out into the metaverse is hopelessly skewed in order to present such a negative picture that I believe most Canadians will ultimately reject it in favour of the national unity message that is playing out in camp Carney.
It only plays to their base which they've had locked in for months (years?). It won't expand their vote.
I absolutely hate their message
The thing the Cons can’t change is that the top two issues in the campaign are Trump and the economy. Carney wins on both of those, and PP is not the guy who can knock him off his horse.
The only thing that will save the little twerp is a magic likeability pill. Policy is what we all go on about but when it boils down to it, it the decision hinges on whether or not you can see the guy running the country. I can see Carney running the country; I can also see Poilievre running the country into the ground. If he won, all Poilievre would have is "the country is broken" and still have no plan to fix it. His solution to the Trump attack is "Bring it home?" Slogans are not going to cut it. His past (convoy nonsense, incel hashtags, bitcoin foolishness etc etc) is dragging behind him like a dirty diaper. His caucus is the weakest gang of misfits we've seen in some time. Hell, the Green Party caucus could run circles around that pathetic crew. Also, what the heck is going on with the security clearance? Don't voters need to know why the future PM can or can't get one? Why hasn't this been dealt with? Carney isn't perfect but Poilievre is so bad that his own fellow conservatives in Ontario have already abandoned him. And he's aligning himself with that health-scandal tainted incompetent in Alberta. A fine strategy in the face of Trump's aggression: a Trumpy national leader cosying up to a Trumpy provincial leader to assure Canadians that they will go into battle against Trump on their behalf. You have to be kidding!
Someone pointed out on X to Pierre’s promise of making it easier for people to buy guns which contradicts his intimate partner violence 🤷🏻♀️
*announcement
"the realignment of CPC voters to be younger and less white than in the past"
Does this require the "and"? I've been watching the rise of the manosphere's influence on younger people, and even watched the Adolescence TV series. There is something there that is so extremely different than I grew up in (I'm a white cis-hetero male in my 50's).
Do the various models being used for predictions take how certain social conservative movements have harnessed social media and anger about systemic failures in ways that social liberals have not?
Yes, I don’t have models t I’ve spent an unhealthy amount of time pouring over Pierre’s followers on X
I wonder if there's really much the Tories can do. They are still at about 35-40% in the polls. That is, realistically, their ceiling. Maybe they can improve by a few points if they are lucky. I will be astonished if they are consistently above 40%. That would be highly, highly unusual.
They need the NDP to do better and to pull down Carney's numbers. And Singh is a disaster.
.. seriously - with Andrew Lawton being served his own ass currently - anointed by Poilievre, Jenni Byrne & Harper .. & you still can’t ’paint recluse Candace Bergen by numbers’ into the Overall Scenario Lawton was in up to his el freako eyeballs - I’ve long suggested she got the ‘old collegial free pass to Do Not Go To Jail & Instead Spend The Rest Of Your ‘more time with family’ by retiring in a blaze of Occupation Enabler Glory Be eh ! Picked up by Canadian Security Agency ‘listeners’ while colluding either with the CPC & Lawton to Optimize the Opportunity
.. enroute home she stopped off to be Keynote Speaker at the Harper IDU Purity Ball
How many ‘Degrees of Separation between Jenni Byrne & Former Reformer Candace Bergen.. & for that matter - to The Plymouth Brethren of Guelph Notoriety ? How many Degrees to Stephen Harper & Ray Novak & Stephen Lecce ! To Preston Manning & Stockwell Day ? Where is Arthur Hamilton ? Candace was receiving Top Secret Briefings as Official Opposition Leader while leading the Poilievre ‘Final Push To His Ascent To Power.. blah blah
Pierre Poilievre is ‘one whistleblower from Historic National & International RIDICULE 🦎🏴☠️
Always interesting to read an article written by a Liberal on how the Conservative campaign is so bad and failing.
On a different note - has anyone seen Chrystia Freeland campaigning lately?
.. calling Scrimshaw a ‘Liberal is infantile ..
FYI .. no - have not seen Ms Freeland Campaigning .. & glad of it
Have a nice day eh .. 🦎🏴☠️🍁