Crombie's Carbon Clarity

Yes, I'm Really Defending Her

In December, one of the last columns I wrote last year was taking Bonnie Crombie out to the woodsheds for not having an opinion on whether she supported a carbon tax. In the afterglow of the OLP leadership race, the lack of defence of a signal Liberal achievement angered me. I was wrong.

In an ideal world I’d love Ontario to have a carbon price. I quite like the Federal Carbon Tax as it is designed. If I were dictator of the world the carbon tax would be significantly higher. But I’m not dictator of the world, alas, and my preferred candidate for the Ontario Liberal leadership lost, so we have to live in reality. And here are a few facts.

There is little chance of the Federal Carbon Tax being operative by the time of the next Ontario election. There is almost no chance the Liberals will be governing at the Federal level at the time of the next election. And Ontario cannot afford a third Ford term.

Would I be happier if Nate were leader? Of course I would. I think Nate will be Premier one day and I want to make that happen. Nothing I’ve said about him changes because he lost, and I’m eternally grateful for his campaign. But at the end of the day it is an abandonment of the principles of that campaign to just handwave away anything Bonnie does as bad because we are still litigating the leadership race.

So, is Bonnie abandoning clima te action? No, and the progressive left should be far less focused on policy levers and far more focused on outcomes.

…

The current Liberal environment critic – a Nate endorser and someone who stood at Queen’s Park with Nate to announce his climate policy – is leading a working group/expert panel/advisory panel to put together a climate policy that doesn’t include a consumer facing carbon price. This is something that I wanted the Crombie team to do, because there was a lot of coherent thinking about climate that doesn’t involve a price in the various leadership campaigns’ plans.

The worry that a lot of people had is that Crombie, who is by her own admission to Nate’s (and my) right, would govern as a soft conservative. This carbon tax flip flop is seen as an admission of it, but when you announce an expert panel led by someone who opposed you in the campaign, it’s not really screaming go it alone. It’s what the party needs, which is for Crombie to be the candidate in 2026 of her ambitious on paper proposals.

The weirdest part of the post-signups phase of the campaign was when Bonnie released her housing policy, because it was easy to attack but also hard? It was a great plan that went fairly far (at least to my eye) and generally got good marks from the various housing and urbanist people I pay attention to. Her record in Mississauga wasn’t good, but the plan on paper was. Ask the average Nate voter about the actual contents of her proposals and the consensus would have been “they sound great, but”. Well, she’s now the leader, and at least so far it seems like the party is committed to using the voices who supported others.

Does any of this mean that we can all just mindlessly support Bonnie and never question anything she ever does? Fuck no, but it does mean that progressives should view today’s twin announcements together – yes, that they’re ditching the carbon tax, but also that they’re working together across the party to put together something that rises to the moment.

If what that commission/expert panel/Advisory committee/whatever the fuck comes back with weak sauce nothingness, then sure, let’s go to town on the complaints. I believe in pressuring politicians to do things. I literally wrote a column attacking performative activism this morning that I’m having to somewhat step on that argued in favour of voting Uncommitted in the Dem primary down south as a way to move Biden left on Palestine. If Bonnie does actually abandon liberal and progressive principles on climate change or any other issue I’ll be at the front of the line to use this megaphone to attack her for this. I will not vote for a Conservative or a conservative in Liberal red. But that’s not what this is.

Let’s be honest right now – do you think I want to support Bonnie Crombie? Do you think I’m jazzed about this? Do you know how much easier it would be to run my moral indignation and holier than thou politics till the election? She’s apparently not running in Milton for what I suspect are reasons I get but find to be unacceptable - that if she loses her leadership is under immediate threat. This column could be much easier to write and get the old anti-Bonnie band back together, but fundamentally if the goal is to apply pressure to keep the left of the Liberal Party relevant in a Crombie leadership then we have to be honest.

Beating Doug Ford matters more than whatever preferences you or I may have about the form of climate action is preferable. What Bonnie Crombie is doing is tossing overboard not the idea of climate action but a specific policy lever. This is like saying someone is giving up on the idea of weight loss because they hate running outside. Could that be one mechanism to lose some weight? Sure. Are there ways around it? Yes. And is getting rid of a boat anchor of a policy worth having to design new methods of emission reductions? Absolutely.

Whatever you think of the carbon tax, the Liberals’ complete failure to sell it has meant that people do not believe it is meaningfully reducing emissions. A Carbon Tax is no longer an emissions reduction tool in the eyes of the population, it’s a tax increase, and even if the Liberals spend a billion dollars rebranding the rebates and raising awareness of it the other problem – that people think it’s not actually achieving emission reductions – won’t be changed.

In Australia, we saw the same thing happen with Julia Gillard’s famed carbon tax. Because of various things – from the spill of Malcolm Turnbull over Kevin Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and then the rolling of Rudd to Gillard ruling out a tax and then passing one – the concept of a carbon price is dead in Australia. And there’s plenty still being done by the new Albanese government there, from consumer incentives for EVs to emission caps for industry and increasing renewables. It’s not all or nothing.

What we cannot let happen is the Carbon Tax come to define Climate Action. If the left lets the narrative come to be that the only way you care about the climate is through support for this one lever then we’re all fucked and Doug Ford will win 90 seats next time. Is that acceptable to anyone who reads this site? Because it’s not to me.

Crombie didn’t sell out progressives today, she avoided dying on a hill in the name of purity. If and when she falters, I’ll be first in line to criticize her. But today, Bonnie took a step to defeating Doug Ford. And for that I’m grateful.