Nate was by far the better choice. Nobody has trustee Bonnie since the "right of center" comment. The last thing Ontario needs is Doug Ford in a red dress.
Let’s face it, you’re always going to have a tough go if it when you come up against a politician who cut his teeth slinging hash in the park in his younger days. What’s the word for it…street smarts.
I find the reaction in this column over the top. It’s a couple byelections a couple of months after she took the leadership. Ontarians don’t really know her or her policies and politics. People don’t vote for people they don’t know.
If these by-elections were referenda ... heavy emphasis on "if" ... then they were referenda on Ford; not on Crombie. So, yes, they should raise concern for the OLP, but concern that significant numbers of voters are still okay with Ford. No doubt that exhaustion, frustration, and dislike of Trudeau fed into the vote to some degree. What degree I don't know, but it definitely didn't help the OLP's chances. And, at the same time, Ford was able to make some good announcements right before the vote, like the Honda deal and the (useless) cellphone ban, that made it look like his was a government that was doing good things and governing reasonably well. But, back to my main point: these weren't referenda on Crombie. People went into the ballot box to judge Ford, and they still think he is okay. I don't think it's an overwhelming love-in, but they don't sufficiently know Crombie and what the Crombie OLP stand for at this early stage. The good news: There is ample time.
It is extremely bad news that people still think Ford is okay because if people haven’t had enough of his corruption and incompetence yet, it is unlikely that anything will drag his popularity down enough to lose in our FPTP system with the Liberals and NDP splitting the non-Conservative vote.
Agree. Moreover, Crombie has the monumental task of shedding the burden of the McGuinty/Wynne years (it still lingers), the need to distance the party from the NDP, and now another anchor in Trudeau and his sidekick Jag. Not an easy task - for anyone.
There is another possible lesson, which I am going to articulate because I am not and never will be a politician. It is that the people of Ontario are so stupid that we deserve the incompetent and corrupt Ford government. I guess maybe a majority even like the damage Ford is doing and don’t mind the corruption.
To Ford’s credit… he is fairly teflon and resilient. He has an Everyman quality that works, despite the fact he isn’t an Everyman. But he also benefits from a lack of opposition that people are familiar with. But I also have every confidence that people will always be pissed off about the cronyism and that he will screw up again and that people will like Bonnie as they get familiar with her.
Aside from an existing Liberal seat opening up, this was the lowest hanging fruit and the best possible scenario to get Crombie a seat. It's one of the OLP's top target seats, it was close enough to Mississauga that the usual complaints about party leaders running outside their home ridings wouldn't really stick, a win would give the OLP a shot of adrenaline and show that the party was progressing in its plan to pick off suburban PC seats they need in 2026, it would marginalize the ONDP even further, it would get Crombie a seat and some much-needed visibility at Queen's Park (and get the OLP a little closer to the 12 seat mark), and even if the party spent $100,000 winning it they'd make that money back in seven months by not having to pay Crombie a salary anymore. I was shocked when Crombie announced she wasn't running in Milton and now we know why - even though this was the best possible scenario aside from an existing seat opening up, clearly the party and/or Crombie herself thought running was too big a risk. If it's too big a risk for the leader to run in one of their top target seats - where the entire party could be mobilized and all the party's resources could be committed to winning a single seat - how does the OLP expect to win 20 or 30 seats like this all at once in 2026, with lesser known candidates and less resources for each riding?
Again, it is very early in her leadership. She needs to build her familiarity and profile with the public. That takes time. Winning this seat and getting in the legislature is not necessary to do that. She has been very effective at doing media conferences after question period to get her views and positions out there. And not being in the legislature frees her up to travel around the province and rebuild the party operation and fundraise. She’s already leapfrogged the NDP in the polls to be the clear 2nd place party, with NDP trailing by quite a margin. So, writing condemnations and obits just a few months into her leadership is very premature.
I completely agree with you that it's too early for obituaries, there's two and a half years to go and anything can happen. The polling shows that people are willing to give Crombie a chance, a luxury Marit Stiles didn't get, but that window won't stay open forever - it might even be closing; Abacus' most recent poll has the OLP up 1% from Del Duca's performance. Crombie has done some good things - I'm pleasantly surprised at how much travelling she's been doing to rebuild the party, for example, but that doesn't generate major funds or press coverage. Poilievre has used footage of him challenging Trudeau face-to-face in the House to great effect and it definitely wouldn't hurt Crombie to show her taking Ford down from time to time. I agree that the jury's still out on Crombie and people should give her a fair chance, but I think it's fair to criticize if it's done in good faith.
so Ford-in-a-skirt turns out not to be considered an effective alternative by the populace. the ON Liberals need to hit rock bottom so that there is genuine soul searching, clearing out of the very deadwood, and a transformation. It's a shame the NDP have not capitalized on the open swim lane, i like their provincial leader.
I don't think that is the case, at all. Both ridings were PC to begin with, so no seats lost or gained. While, I agree, they need to flush any remnants of the McGuinty/Wynne era, they shouldn't replace them with something more LW. The NDP occupies that postion on the political spectrum. If people want to vote for that they will. No need for two LW parties with essentially the same policies. Give people the choice of right, center and left. Just look at what is happening at the federal level. Not everyone leans the same way politically. just sayin'.
Nate was by far the better choice. Nobody has trustee Bonnie since the "right of center" comment. The last thing Ontario needs is Doug Ford in a red dress.
Let’s face it, you’re always going to have a tough go if it when you come up against a politician who cut his teeth slinging hash in the park in his younger days. What’s the word for it…street smarts.
I find the reaction in this column over the top. It’s a couple byelections a couple of months after she took the leadership. Ontarians don’t really know her or her policies and politics. People don’t vote for people they don’t know.
If these by-elections were referenda ... heavy emphasis on "if" ... then they were referenda on Ford; not on Crombie. So, yes, they should raise concern for the OLP, but concern that significant numbers of voters are still okay with Ford. No doubt that exhaustion, frustration, and dislike of Trudeau fed into the vote to some degree. What degree I don't know, but it definitely didn't help the OLP's chances. And, at the same time, Ford was able to make some good announcements right before the vote, like the Honda deal and the (useless) cellphone ban, that made it look like his was a government that was doing good things and governing reasonably well. But, back to my main point: these weren't referenda on Crombie. People went into the ballot box to judge Ford, and they still think he is okay. I don't think it's an overwhelming love-in, but they don't sufficiently know Crombie and what the Crombie OLP stand for at this early stage. The good news: There is ample time.
It is extremely bad news that people still think Ford is okay because if people haven’t had enough of his corruption and incompetence yet, it is unlikely that anything will drag his popularity down enough to lose in our FPTP system with the Liberals and NDP splitting the non-Conservative vote.
Six months before the 2011 election, Jack Layton's NDP lost Winnipeg North, a seat the NDP had held for 31 of the previous 40 years, in a by-election.
In May 2021, Keir Starmer's Labour lost a by-election in Hartlepool, a safe seat since its creation in 1974, by a landslide 52-29 margin.
Obviously the OLP would have rather won than lost this by-election but this wasn't a test of Crombie's leadership, it just wasn't.
Agree. Moreover, Crombie has the monumental task of shedding the burden of the McGuinty/Wynne years (it still lingers), the need to distance the party from the NDP, and now another anchor in Trudeau and his sidekick Jag. Not an easy task - for anyone.
There is another possible lesson, which I am going to articulate because I am not and never will be a politician. It is that the people of Ontario are so stupid that we deserve the incompetent and corrupt Ford government. I guess maybe a majority even like the damage Ford is doing and don’t mind the corruption.
To Ford’s credit… he is fairly teflon and resilient. He has an Everyman quality that works, despite the fact he isn’t an Everyman. But he also benefits from a lack of opposition that people are familiar with. But I also have every confidence that people will always be pissed off about the cronyism and that he will screw up again and that people will like Bonnie as they get familiar with her.
Aside from an existing Liberal seat opening up, this was the lowest hanging fruit and the best possible scenario to get Crombie a seat. It's one of the OLP's top target seats, it was close enough to Mississauga that the usual complaints about party leaders running outside their home ridings wouldn't really stick, a win would give the OLP a shot of adrenaline and show that the party was progressing in its plan to pick off suburban PC seats they need in 2026, it would marginalize the ONDP even further, it would get Crombie a seat and some much-needed visibility at Queen's Park (and get the OLP a little closer to the 12 seat mark), and even if the party spent $100,000 winning it they'd make that money back in seven months by not having to pay Crombie a salary anymore. I was shocked when Crombie announced she wasn't running in Milton and now we know why - even though this was the best possible scenario aside from an existing seat opening up, clearly the party and/or Crombie herself thought running was too big a risk. If it's too big a risk for the leader to run in one of their top target seats - where the entire party could be mobilized and all the party's resources could be committed to winning a single seat - how does the OLP expect to win 20 or 30 seats like this all at once in 2026, with lesser known candidates and less resources for each riding?
Again, it is very early in her leadership. She needs to build her familiarity and profile with the public. That takes time. Winning this seat and getting in the legislature is not necessary to do that. She has been very effective at doing media conferences after question period to get her views and positions out there. And not being in the legislature frees her up to travel around the province and rebuild the party operation and fundraise. She’s already leapfrogged the NDP in the polls to be the clear 2nd place party, with NDP trailing by quite a margin. So, writing condemnations and obits just a few months into her leadership is very premature.
I completely agree with you that it's too early for obituaries, there's two and a half years to go and anything can happen. The polling shows that people are willing to give Crombie a chance, a luxury Marit Stiles didn't get, but that window won't stay open forever - it might even be closing; Abacus' most recent poll has the OLP up 1% from Del Duca's performance. Crombie has done some good things - I'm pleasantly surprised at how much travelling she's been doing to rebuild the party, for example, but that doesn't generate major funds or press coverage. Poilievre has used footage of him challenging Trudeau face-to-face in the House to great effect and it definitely wouldn't hurt Crombie to show her taking Ford down from time to time. I agree that the jury's still out on Crombie and people should give her a fair chance, but I think it's fair to criticize if it's done in good faith.
so Ford-in-a-skirt turns out not to be considered an effective alternative by the populace. the ON Liberals need to hit rock bottom so that there is genuine soul searching, clearing out of the very deadwood, and a transformation. It's a shame the NDP have not capitalized on the open swim lane, i like their provincial leader.
I don't think that is the case, at all. Both ridings were PC to begin with, so no seats lost or gained. While, I agree, they need to flush any remnants of the McGuinty/Wynne era, they shouldn't replace them with something more LW. The NDP occupies that postion on the political spectrum. If people want to vote for that they will. No need for two LW parties with essentially the same policies. Give people the choice of right, center and left. Just look at what is happening at the federal level. Not everyone leans the same way politically. just sayin'.
What Timberwolf said. 😀. They were PC seats, people. Relax.