Democrats In Array?

On A Sneaky Good Month

With the news that the Democrats have a deal on the Inflation Reduction Act and noted pain in the ass Senator Sinema is on board, it’s worth stepping back for one second and asking a very simple question: when was the last time Democrats had this good of a sustained news period?

Whatever you think of the Democrats’ bill, or their chances in November, it’s almost inarguable that their stasis in the last year has hurt them, and led to the increases in dissatisfaction with the President and the Congressional party. It’s always been the case, in least in my eyes, that passing something would be advantageous to their chances of doing better (not good, just better) in November this year, and that you should take whatever Joe Manchin offered.

Put another way, if you had told a Democrat in January of 2022 that Democrats would have a tied Generic Ballot, a reconciliation package with a ton of climate spending and reduced costs for prescription drugs in it on route to package, and a Senate map where Democratic chances are up like 13% in a month (per 538) and comfortably above 50%, Democrats would have taken that any day of the week. And, rightfully so, it’s time to start acknowledging a very basic fact.

Democrats are having one hell of a month right now.

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I am aware of the incredible crassness of a man seeming to celebrate the fall of Roe on the basis of Democrats doing better in the polls because of it, so let’s just dispense of that first – obviously, the overturning of Roe is disgraceful and horrible. Nobody here is saying that it isn’t.

From the day Roe was overturned, the fortunes of the Democratic Party have been much improved, moving from a R+2 Generic Ballot per 538 and a R+3.5 per RCP to a tie in 538 and a near tie in RCP, but more importantly, we’re seeing most polls continuing to get better in the last couple of weeks. Far from an immediate surge to Democrats and a gradual return for the GOP, it seems the further we get away from Dobbs the worse the polls get for the GOP. We don’t 1000% know this, given the number of pollsters who have given us multiple post Dobbs polls is pretty low, but with InsiderAdvantage and Rasmussen snapping left in their most recent poll after their first post Dobbs polls showing no change, I feel fairly certain that the Democratic position isn’t fading yet.

It's also clear from the results in Kansas that the anger isn’t done yet, with 59% of the early ballots cast in the ballot measure on abortion coming from women and something like 70% of new voters registered in the post-Dobbs era being women. If the GOP were hoping that this would be a momentary blip in the news cycle – which is what most GOP strategists said in public after the decision – it seems like that bet hasn’t paid off.

What we also know is that the GOP are getting hit by a version of what Democrats got hit with in 2020 and 2021 on COVID – a lack of coherent, national messaging on COVID restrictions let the GOP say that the way that blue cities and states were acting on COVID would be the way they’d govern nationally or in Virginia. True or not, that was used as a cudgel against the centre of the party, and in so doing, it hurt moderates who never would have let restrictive national policy happen.

In the same way, the GOP are hurt by the drip, drip, drip of news stories on abortion these days – from the 10 year old Ohioan who had to go to Indiana to get an abortion to all the states debating further restrictions now, to the stories of the consequences of bans in the weeks and months ahead – this story won’t fade away. There is no ability for the GOP to stop everyone with elected office and an R beside their names from talking about abortion, and with social media, we know about every insane state legislator in (to take today’s example) Indiana who decides to come out for abortion policy that would force fifth graders who were raped to carry the kid to term against their will. And it will be electoral suicide for the GOP, drip by drip.

Let’s be clear about the limits of this so far – the evidence it has swung a meaningful number of 2020 Trump voters to actually vote for Democrats is (so far) functionally non-existent, but what it’s done much more importantly is made Democrats much more likely to turn out. Given the Democrats have lost more seats than you can count on low turnout from Democratic-leaning minority voters in the last 15 years in midterms, this really matters. If the legacy of Dobbs is killing the GOP turnout edge, that’s enough to take the ceiling out of most optimistic Republican projections. If this also keeps a ton of suburban, Romney-Biden voters in the tent, it’s enough to flip the Senate.

Again, nobody is saying this means Democrats will win the House or are route for 52+ Senate seats. But this is the kind of progress that Democrats needed a few months ago to have a shot at getting somewhere, and now it’s happened.

Honestly, I get that Democrats are preconditioned to be miserable about everything as a function of our status, but this is the sort of month that Democrats could only have dreamed of six months ago. The party is in with a real shot, and frankly for the first time we have a message that works in suburban Minneapolis and small town Pennsylvania. The IRA gives Democrats a message about taxing rich corporates to pay for clean energy, drought relief, and cheaper prescription drugs, and if you think that message can’t sell, then you’re an idiot, because Joe Fucking Manchin is sounding like Bernie Sanders when he goes on TV and sells the 15% minimum tax as a way to ensure corporations do their patriotic duty.

At some point, it’s not delusion to say that Democrats have had a better month than anyone ever could have expected, and that has an electoral consequence. If inaction and dithering cost Democrats in 2021 and early 2022, getting shit done and giving themselves a message to run on can only help Democrats now.

And for the first time in a while, Democrats can look at their current situation and smile, because right now, it’s coming up roses for them.