From what I can tell, it would appear more than ever, that the way people feel about the state of society and economy is getting more divorced from reality. And it is not limited to Canada, the same is happening in the US. I thought this article summarized it quite nicely:
With record low unemployment, lower inflation than the rest of the world, wages that are keeping up with inflation, significant economic growth, the U.S. is doing more than fine. Yet, most Americans believe they are worse off than a few years ago. I suspect that no amount of hard data is going to change that view.
Although we like to think in Canada that our political system is better than the US and that Canadian are better informed, the same is happening in Canada. The actual data is irrelevant when people “feel” differently. And the CPC, with a lot of help from a large part of the media, is making sure that people “feel” about society and the economy in a particular way that is not based on actual data.
Now, the good thing for the Liberals is that is easier to change people’s feelings than it is to change an economy. Unlike the UK, we are not dealing with a shrinking economy and a persistent high inflation. But to change people’s views, you need to engage them where they are. Show that you care. Pick a fight for the sake of picking a fight.
Jeez, you’re one of those who fell for the polls and we’re stuck with Trudeau. I actually think I would like him as a person, but I don’t like him at all as a leader. I could see that right from the start, no offence Trudeau. That’s because I know that politics is about more than polls. With polls, it’s about winning. Having won though, what do we do with a charming unprepared person? Would so much rather have the anti-Harper. Harper was horrible for so many reasons. We could have had Tom Mulcair fixing Harper’s conservative mistakes and actually putting in the long list of NDP programs that people really like. Think again, Scrimshaw.
If you’re going to insult me, and the 39% of Canada that voted Liberal in 2015, it’s worth pointing out that Tom Mulcair put out a costing document that A) didn’t actually show how much things would cost and B) assumed that a 2% corporate tax rise overnight would have no impact on the Canadian economy, so maybe just maybe save the fucking condescension
Good grief. What has falling for the horse race fun that is polling have anything to do with disagreeing on a particular policy? I stand by my point. Canadians got an inexperienced but nice person as PM. Now look at the mess. Criticism isn’t insulting. Get over yourself why don’t you? Notice I didn’t say: why the fuck don’t you?
Well, Mr. Scrimshaw, your comments about polls and pollsters could be extended to all political analysts. Most of their comments are based on their own personal experiences of ten, twenty, or thirty years ago. Do these add any predictive value? No. But then neither does the daily horoscope (and, often, the daily weather forecast) and I'm addicted to them too.
There remains the question of whether polls et al actually influence policies. It seems to me that, to a certain extent, they do. See carbon tax and home heating oil. More generally, there are many sound policy proposals that are off limits because they test badly in focus groups and internal polls.
So yes, in a weird sort of way, polls do have some predictive power.
From what I can tell, it would appear more than ever, that the way people feel about the state of society and economy is getting more divorced from reality. And it is not limited to Canada, the same is happening in the US. I thought this article summarized it quite nicely:
https://www.ft.com/content/c17c35a3-e030-4e3b-9f49-c6bdf7d3da7f
With record low unemployment, lower inflation than the rest of the world, wages that are keeping up with inflation, significant economic growth, the U.S. is doing more than fine. Yet, most Americans believe they are worse off than a few years ago. I suspect that no amount of hard data is going to change that view.
Although we like to think in Canada that our political system is better than the US and that Canadian are better informed, the same is happening in Canada. The actual data is irrelevant when people “feel” differently. And the CPC, with a lot of help from a large part of the media, is making sure that people “feel” about society and the economy in a particular way that is not based on actual data.
Now, the good thing for the Liberals is that is easier to change people’s feelings than it is to change an economy. Unlike the UK, we are not dealing with a shrinking economy and a persistent high inflation. But to change people’s views, you need to engage them where they are. Show that you care. Pick a fight for the sake of picking a fight.
I love reading your writing. Your words do not go unnoticed.
Many a horse racing enthusiast has lost their money on a sure bet.
Brilliant as always Evan.
.. glad to see you’re coming around to my perspective ..
should be obvious mine is akin to bellingcat style
a dynamic shifting lens.. docu view ..
The ‘contemporary coup d’état ..
yes.. very successfully deploying currently
The ‘conservative ethic or ‘being’ .. in play
& By very nature is compelled ..
to gain or regain POWER - CONTROL - COMMAND .. it’s their nature
All they are lacking is - VOTER OBEISANCE .. Herd Voting ? y’say
Why yes.. this is a done deal .. the Polls CONFIRM THIS
MainStreamMedia - both NON PARTISAN ACTUAL NEWS JOURNALISM
as well as ‘conservative’ Partisan MainStream MEDIA plus x % of SOCIALMEDIA
banter this shit.. turbocharged non stop 24/7 ie
THE ZONE IS FLOODED WITH SHIT h/t Steve Bannon
Jenni Byrne’s ‘time is up’.. so is Ray Novak’s dude .. Alberta ! don’t get me started
.. & where the fuck is the ‘wolverines’ .. a la bellingcat
you read Michael Lewis - The Premonition - A Covid Story
you know the sort of ‘wolverines’ I mean..
& that was just TEN OF THEM who distinguished themselves
in a Unique Way .. they could - and Within their Career Arc as Exemplars
HAPPENSTANCE btw - is the term you’re attempting to dangle with.. haha puckluck ?
C’mon Evan .. with respect.. The Guy Is A Disgrace
His Backtrail is one of Toxic Waste
His Daily Dudley DoRight cum performancing top notch
His Forward Path .. attainable HolyGrail life as A GOD ..
& he’s Livin it LARGE.. since his ascension to LEADER PIERRE
HE IS ON THE RIDE OF A LIFETIME IS HE NOT ! .. cui bono might I ask
aside from the truly obvious .. but Who is The Mechanism ?
Jenni Byrne is Extremely Powerful within her Organizational & Command
but she is no Strategic Viral Savant .. just an adapter of Best Practices
re Propaganda & coup d’état GROOMING & ASSAULT ELECTORAL CONSPIRACIES
the Funding must be FASCINATING 🦎🏴☠️
Jeez, you’re one of those who fell for the polls and we’re stuck with Trudeau. I actually think I would like him as a person, but I don’t like him at all as a leader. I could see that right from the start, no offence Trudeau. That’s because I know that politics is about more than polls. With polls, it’s about winning. Having won though, what do we do with a charming unprepared person? Would so much rather have the anti-Harper. Harper was horrible for so many reasons. We could have had Tom Mulcair fixing Harper’s conservative mistakes and actually putting in the long list of NDP programs that people really like. Think again, Scrimshaw.
If you’re going to insult me, and the 39% of Canada that voted Liberal in 2015, it’s worth pointing out that Tom Mulcair put out a costing document that A) didn’t actually show how much things would cost and B) assumed that a 2% corporate tax rise overnight would have no impact on the Canadian economy, so maybe just maybe save the fucking condescension
Good grief. What has falling for the horse race fun that is polling have anything to do with disagreeing on a particular policy? I stand by my point. Canadians got an inexperienced but nice person as PM. Now look at the mess. Criticism isn’t insulting. Get over yourself why don’t you? Notice I didn’t say: why the fuck don’t you?
Mulcair’s an idiot, the NDP platform you’re defending was moronic and calling me “one of those people” makes you an asshole
“One of those”. You’re thin-skinned. Is that all there is to your analysis? Why bother with a blog then.
Well, Mr. Scrimshaw, your comments about polls and pollsters could be extended to all political analysts. Most of their comments are based on their own personal experiences of ten, twenty, or thirty years ago. Do these add any predictive value? No. But then neither does the daily horoscope (and, often, the daily weather forecast) and I'm addicted to them too.
There remains the question of whether polls et al actually influence policies. It seems to me that, to a certain extent, they do. See carbon tax and home heating oil. More generally, there are many sound policy proposals that are off limits because they test badly in focus groups and internal polls.
So yes, in a weird sort of way, polls do have some predictive power.