A thought about the neighbour poll. It's possible that people heard their neighbours trash talk the Liberals for the past several years and haven't registered how they might have reconsidered over the past few weeks. Even then, the Conservative vote has stayed pretty solid, so they'd only notice a shift if they were in a Dipper neighbourhood.
I think some 905 will vote Con but have no idea if enough to tip if blue
Was listening to CBC’s Ian H. to the phone in portion of his show and was pleasantly surprised to hear many NDPers speak so eloquently about why they voted Liberal - including some folks who even tho were unhappy with Justin, voted Liberal because of the Trump’s threats and Carney’s résumé
I am more confident Liberals will win a majority which is INCREDIBLE given where we were in Jan. 😭
And utterly disgusting of the vomit-inducing RW to blame catch and release policies to what happened in Vancouver - just terrible, immediately reminded me of the Incel van attack in TO 😔
How much do you worry about US-style response bias in the polls, where conservatives with low social trust are just less likely to agree to be surveyed?
Kouvalis dropped an Ontario only poll with the liberals up 49-39 province wide. The conservatives are down 61-30 in the city of Ottawa and tied in the eastern Ontario. There is a bit of racedep in the GTA though. Assuming that the spilts are correct it seems like Poilievre might be screwed in his own seat.
Re: Liberals. I think they must have pretty good #'s if they've sent Carney back to Saskatoon for a 2nd time and had a swing through both Edmonton and Calgary planned before the Vancouver attack changed plans.
Evan, from conversations you’ve had, what’s the mood right now within the LPC regarding tomorrow’s prospects for the party? Any optimism where we’d be surprised, or nervousness around specific ridings or regions?
Are the models building in the potential for a much higher turnout than we have seen in a few decades? Because I think that is where we are heading… and if so, Frankie’s margin is going to look like the real deal.
Is there any particular reason to think that other ethnic minorities might mirror the same shifts as were in the Chinese polling? Anecdotally many are saying this
Here is another question. I was reading some of your older posts and you basically said Joly and Guilbeault were clowns. I would have been tempted to agree with you on Joly last year, but I've been really pleasantly with her handling of the USA issue.
So I guess, why was this your evaluation of their work at the time (for someone who's not paying attention more than the newspaper every day), and has this changed since?
Awesome idea, this Eve Live Blog. Okay, first question - the Chinese everything of it all, what's up with that? Initially there was no comment from Carney on China. I thought wow, maybe we're slowly going towards easing those relationships? And then the answer in the English debate. Why go there? I'm assuming this has some influence on the Chinese swing you just mentioned?
More deeply than just the election though, I thought a large part of the measures Canada had taken against China was to please the USA, which we don't need to play along to the same level now... So what am I missing?
I am working with university researchers, and the measures implemented by the previous government in terms of research security are bonkers disconnected and ridiculous. You now get your funding yanked for having supervised a student 7 years ago who then went to work at a Chinese university deemed to be forbidden 3 years ago. This is Maccarthysm level bullshit.
What do you think is up with the large delta between the polls regarding the youth vote? Abacus and angus have the libs winning 18-29 by a decent margin but others have them losing them by a similarly decent margin? Any clue what’s happening?
A thought about the neighbour poll. It's possible that people heard their neighbours trash talk the Liberals for the past several years and haven't registered how they might have reconsidered over the past few weeks. Even then, the Conservative vote has stayed pretty solid, so they'd only notice a shift if they were in a Dipper neighbourhood.
I think some 905 will vote Con but have no idea if enough to tip if blue
Was listening to CBC’s Ian H. to the phone in portion of his show and was pleasantly surprised to hear many NDPers speak so eloquently about why they voted Liberal - including some folks who even tho were unhappy with Justin, voted Liberal because of the Trump’s threats and Carney’s résumé
I am more confident Liberals will win a majority which is INCREDIBLE given where we were in Jan. 😭
And utterly disgusting of the vomit-inducing RW to blame catch and release policies to what happened in Vancouver - just terrible, immediately reminded me of the Incel van attack in TO 😔
Graves was 45/36 last night / early this AM on X (unless he shared different #s with you).
How much do you worry about US-style response bias in the polls, where conservatives with low social trust are just less likely to agree to be surveyed?
Kouvalis dropped an Ontario only poll with the liberals up 49-39 province wide. The conservatives are down 61-30 in the city of Ottawa and tied in the eastern Ontario. There is a bit of racedep in the GTA though. Assuming that the spilts are correct it seems like Poilievre might be screwed in his own seat.
What was Southwestern Ontario and the North like?
(and is there a public link for the #'s anywhere?)
A link is here
https://x.com/nickkouvalis/status/1916637445287821476?s=46
The liberals are leading 45-38 in SW Ontario and 43-39 in Northern Ontario.
Re: Liberals. I think they must have pretty good #'s if they've sent Carney back to Saskatoon for a 2nd time and had a swing through both Edmonton and Calgary planned before the Vancouver attack changed plans.
Just wanted to say I am a paid subscriber!
Evan, from conversations you’ve had, what’s the mood right now within the LPC regarding tomorrow’s prospects for the party? Any optimism where we’d be surprised, or nervousness around specific ridings or regions?
Are the models building in the potential for a much higher turnout than we have seen in a few decades? Because I think that is where we are heading… and if so, Frankie’s margin is going to look like the real deal.
Is there any particular reason to think that other ethnic minorities might mirror the same shifts as were in the Chinese polling? Anecdotally many are saying this
Here is another question. I was reading some of your older posts and you basically said Joly and Guilbeault were clowns. I would have been tempted to agree with you on Joly last year, but I've been really pleasantly with her handling of the USA issue.
So I guess, why was this your evaluation of their work at the time (for someone who's not paying attention more than the newspaper every day), and has this changed since?
Awesome idea, this Eve Live Blog. Okay, first question - the Chinese everything of it all, what's up with that? Initially there was no comment from Carney on China. I thought wow, maybe we're slowly going towards easing those relationships? And then the answer in the English debate. Why go there? I'm assuming this has some influence on the Chinese swing you just mentioned?
More deeply than just the election though, I thought a large part of the measures Canada had taken against China was to please the USA, which we don't need to play along to the same level now... So what am I missing?
I am working with university researchers, and the measures implemented by the previous government in terms of research security are bonkers disconnected and ridiculous. You now get your funding yanked for having supervised a student 7 years ago who then went to work at a Chinese university deemed to be forbidden 3 years ago. This is Maccarthysm level bullshit.
Thanks for your work Evan.
Already have my popcorn for CPC infighting Shenanigans.
Where can I become a paid subscriber?
What do you think is up with the large delta between the polls regarding the youth vote? Abacus and angus have the libs winning 18-29 by a decent margin but others have them losing them by a similarly decent margin? Any clue what’s happening?