Election Night Liveblog: Can Carney Get His Majority?

Watch Me Go Insane In Live Time

This is the ScrimshawUnscripted liveblog for election night. I’ll be updating quite frequently throughout the night, and friends of the show will be chiming in with some takes as well (though typed by yours truly), but we’re here throughout the night, from the first votes out east to the last votes out west.

Consider a paid subscription, it’s a nice way to say thanks for all of this free content. That said, all the work will remain free and I do this for the love of the game.

12:19 AM - Nothing is happening until advanced ballots come through.

11:50 PM - Right now this is likely a minority but it’s highly likey if not certain that the NDP and Liberals will have a majority which will mean we have a working majority at least for a while.

11:40 PM - There are 3 seats in Kitchener, two in Brampton, two in Northern Ontario, Miramichi, and a handful in Edmonton and BC that can flip. This majority is not out of the realm of possibility at all.

11:27 PM - Just clicking around the seats, there is absolutely a path to majority government for the Liberals, that is not a guarantee they get there but there are a ton of close seats where late advanced ballots can tip them.

11:20 PM - Cochrane I love you but come on now, this is very clearly not representative of the final results in some of these seats.

11:14 PM - Rivière de Milles Ile flipping by the size it did is a great size for the Liberals in Quebec and proof this election won’t be as close as it seems.

11:08 PM - there are 9 losses from the Liberals to the Conservatives in the GTA right now. I would bet on a significant number of those coming back on early votes, in addition to Mount Royal. It might be a minority, it’s not gonna be this close at the end of the night.

11:05 PM - CTV has jumped the gun by calling the minority. They might be right in the end but I think they’re ignoring just how different advanced versus EDay votes are.

10:58 PM - Not to be boring but we’re just waiting for full counts and advanced votes. Small shifts don’t matter till we get advanced votes.

10:45 PM - if advanced votes break the same way in Central and Western Canada then it’s a majority government.

10:43 PM - Anita Anand is up 9%, which is a great result for my brand of Anand loving. She’s fantastic.

10:37 PM - The Bloc being at 21 seats is a pretty nice sign that I have correctly seen the board in Quebec and that I have been one of the best English reads on Quebec so far, and a great sign for majority.

10:32 PM - I’m not seeing anything that makes the majority or minority call particularly easy but this is going to be close at the very least.

Need more proof of NDP seats to see how they’re doing.

10:26 PM - Mirimachi is now a Liberal. I would again like apologies.

10:23 PM - the results in Central and Western Canada are not worth digging deep on yet but Terra Nova is about to flip so I’m in a great mood.

10:11 PM - CBC Calls It - Mark Carney has won, unsure majority or minority, Pierre Poilievre will not be PM.

10:09 PM - Sean Fraser is ahead in Central Nova, and I would like apologies from people who panicked.

10:08 PM - Cumberland-Colchester is tightening to the Liberals, which now means there are 4 Conservative seats in Atlantic Canada within 4% of the vote with (what we believe are) advanced votes to come.

A lot of bad narratives may have to be rewritten.

10:01 PM - Anybody who claims to know whether this is a Liberal majority or minority is overreading tiny data but also, this really looks like a Liberal win.

10:00 PM - Miramichi just closed to 2%, more evidence late ballots are helping the Liberals at least out east.

9:53 PM - Blatantly stealing this from Dan Arnold, (CalgaryGrit on Twitter) but: “Over the last hour, popular vote in Newfoundland has moved from a tie to +7 Liberal.” Probably a good sign about late votes!

9:50 PM - Apparently the Liberals are flipping 12 Bloc seats on very very very very very early results. These are not results that matter at all, but I’m out of content.

9:48 PM - Sean Fraser and Anthony Germain are inching back closer in Central Nova and Terra Nova so those would be nice flips if the trends continue.

9:44 PM - We are not seeing anything significant from Central or Western Canada.

9:35 PM - for the next 20 minutes I’m not bothering to check any individual ridings west of Atlantic Canada because it’s going to be random and tiny. Not overreacting to anything yet.

9:30 PM - Everything outside of BC and Yukon has closed. Welcome to the rush.

9:23 PM - there are 3 Conservative seats under 3.5% right now and a real reason to think the votes that are out are better for us. People overpanicking are dumb and bad.

9:20 PM - Can we get any more fucking results in these key seats?

9:11 PM - Nothing I’m seeing suggests anything other than a Liberal Government so far.

9:06 PM - I’m drunk but I don’t see Fraser losing and at that point it’s a mediocre to good night for the CPC, plus NB Liberal sources feel good about Miramichi.

8:57 PM - Look, if Sean Fraser is going to lose while South Shore St. Margaret’s is red, then we might want to give up. Or, far more likely, it’s proof that these results aren’t greatly representative.

8:55 PM - This is going to be annoying when we have to do this Election Day/Advanced Vote thing bullshit again in Central and Western Canada.

Nothing is currently changing in a significant way.

8:48 PM - If the CPC are going to walk out of Election Day votes with tiny margins they’re in real trouble but sure, if the results stay the same they’re in trouble.

They won’t, but sure, let’s panic. (This is sarcasm.)

8:36 PM - The problem with this is that people are wildly overreacting to on the day votes which are breaking Conservative and forgetting that the polling shows that the Advanced Votes are going to break Liberal. Cmon guys, stop overreacting.

8:32 PM - Long Range Mountain called for the Conservatives, which isn’t a shock. Terra Nova is down to a 2.3% margin, so more proof that later, bigger polling places are breaking for the Liberals. Still quite confident the Liberals are fine.

8:25 PM - people need to calm the fuck down. We know that advanced votes are going to break Liberal, the math is getting better, and there’s still two seats where the Liberals should win (Madawaska and Central Nova) that are currently blue, plus Terra Nova which is closing slowly.

Oh, and Miramichi just flipped. When there’s reason to panic, I will. There’s none.

8:21 PM - Jason Kenney acknowledging that early results are smaller polling places and then pretending that this is proof of Shy Tory is bullshit.

8:17 PM - Terra Nova sticking around a close race is good, I’m choosing not to overly panic about small margins in early polls, especially given the Conservatives are currently winning 2 seats (Madawaska and Halifax) there’s no way in fuck they’re actually going to win.

8:14 PM - 40% of the polling places and 25% of the 2021 vote total are in in Terra Nova, which is a decent sign that these polling places are not representative. That said, obviously not great to see 13 Conservatives. If there’s a Conservative tilt on EDay that will be counteracted in Advanced Voting this’ll repeat itself.

8:12 PM - nothing here is suggesting a huge Conservative overperformance but as of right now I’m not feeling the best. That said, a Made-In-Atlantic polling miss would never be that surprising given the small samples.

Pretending things are fine is a lie, but pretending things are great for the CPC is pretty wrong too.

8:07 PM - I’m pretty sure advanced votes are counted at the end, which would be good for the Liberals. Lead’s down to 6% in Terra Nova, which suggests the CPC results are slightly inflated by where the polls are in right now and should close between bigger polling places and advanced votes.

8:03 PM - At this point I’ve had a Newfoundland Liberal concede they’re basically giving up on Long Range Mountains and Central Newfoundland. That said, I projected that so who cares.

7:55 PM - Terra Nova is the only thing we’re really waiting for right now. David Cochrane makes the point that these are all on the days, which should break right compared to the Earlies if the polling is right.

7:46 PM - I’m remarkably bored of overreacting to 15% at most of the count but this is also what we’re doing here so I don’t know.

7:45 PM - I swear this will get more interesting soon.

7:38 PM - First results in non-Newfoundland seats are pretty good, and Terra Nova is tightening. Looks good so far!

7:32 PM - the Newfoundland results are certainly not excellent so far but let’s see what the rest of Atlantic shows (as well as what later counts in Newfoundland show).

7:30 PM - The very very early results in Terra Nova Pennisula aren’t great, but it’s a pretty interesting riding with multiple corners and I wouldn’t overreact yet.

This is also where I beg Elections Canada to release poll matching that Australia does, so we know better.

7:21 PM - updates will speed up when there’s actually results, to be clear.

7:17 PM - Small towns are coming in in Newfoundland, and they’re breaking a bit more Conservative. Until we get close to the bigger counts coming in I’m not freaking out.

7:10PM - Central Newfoundland is a very varied seat full of small towns so I wouldn’t read anything into these results for now, but at least we have results!

7:00PM - the polls are closed in Newfoundland! Let’s hope Ben Oates’ intel doesn’t fuck me. (Love you Benny.)

6:55PM - Jason Kenney is absolutely right that there tends to be a shy Tory effect in Alberta, but Rosie letting that slide as if it applies Nationally is bullshit, when all the evidence works against it. Cochrane > Rosie, forever and always.

6:42 PM - Gerry Butts not being on the CBC coverage this year is unfun. He was very good in 2021, and is a good friend of this site. Whatever, if he’s not on TV maybe he has a chance to actually read this coverage.

In terms of the total coverage, I’m a big fan of the way the CBC coverage is set up. I like that they’ve split up their “co-hosts” (the non-Rosie people at the main table) as separating the coverage.

6:27 PM - I should make this announcement - in mid-May, I’ll be running a 5-part, 20k word Longread on how this campaign happened on this site exclusively, featuring a ton of conversations and intel I couldn’t share during the campaign but can share after it. This’ll be probably the biggest project of my career but I’m very exciting to run that here next month.

6:23PM - I am very here for Robert Benzie just emptying the notebook on Poilievre live on TV, and I am getting incredible “the team is about to trade the best player” vibes from this CBC panel. Anybody who has ever seen a sports team laying the ground work for a trade knows what Benzie is currently doing.

6:15 PM - David Cochrane can’t say it outright but it’s very obvious and well known that Jenni Byrne tried to kill Don Stewart’s campaign to save Trudeau, and it was well known at the time she was doing it so don’t pretend it’s just post facto revisionism.

6:05PM - This is once again my opportunity to say that David Cochrane is so much better at this job than everyone else who has held his job and I’m so glad we have a proper electoral nerd in his chair.

Introduction - Setting The Table

The Liberals should win tonight.

Anything other than a Liberal win tonight would be a failure, and there’s nothing to suggest they will lose. Whether it’s a majority or minority is unclear, and while the math says majority, it’s not to say it’s some huge failure if they end up at 168.

I don’t have any pithy quotes or fun takeaways anymore - I’m fucking sick of this campaign and have been running on empty since March. Whatever contempt I show is not forced or a bit, I’m fucking sick of this campaign and I’ve been waiting for it to end for months.

I will say I do appreciate my readers more than I can say - this is an incredible privilege to have whatever amount of power and influence I have, and I’m honoured that so many of you care what I have to say.

Yesterday, on the liveblog, I went province by province in Atlantic Canada to set expectations, so let’s just run that again while we wait for things to actually happen.

PEI - If the Liberals are losing a seat on the island then there’s some big problems. I feel like if there was some great local crisis there we’d have heard about it by now, and I’ve heard nothing. Should remain a clean 4-0.

New Brunswick - if the Conservatives get 5 or more it’s notable. They have three fairly easily - Fundy Royal, Saint John—St. Croix, Tobique—Mactaquac - and Miramichi is a plausible fourth. After that, the pickings are fairly slim - maybe Fredericton? Cause Wayne’s not in trouble in Saint John and honestly if Dom is in trouble in Beausejour I think we might see flying pigs. If you’re the Liberals, 3 Conservatives is great, 4 is good, 5 is big polling miss territory, and 2 is 200 seats.

Nova Scotia - Here there’s more intrigue, just because there’s more competitive seats here. South Shore-St. Margaret’s doesn’t have an NDP candidate which helps us hopefully steal a seat from Rick Perkins, Cumberland Colchester is within a point in my model right now, but on a different night the CPC could be looking at gains in Cape Breton and even Central Nova.

It’s likely the CPC are capped at 3, because this isn’t the kind of night where the Conservatives win or even come close, but whether Sean Fraser wins easily or not will be a bit of a tell. Right now I’ve got 2 Conservatives, and 3 is a mediocre but survivable result for the Liberals. Anything more and I’m worried.

Newfoundland And Labrador - this is the actual reason I feel the need to do this segment. I’m not even particularly scared, I’m just pretty certain this is going to go badly for us tomorrow. Now, “go badly” means 2 CPC seats, holding Central Newfoundland and gaining Long Range Mountains, but still. Central Newfoundland has a CPC incumbent and the loss of Scott Simms’ significant personal vote, while Long Range Mountains has a shit candidate and a campaign that is going shit, according to my sources.

In any other region I wouldn’t care - the math says both should go red - but this is Newfoundland. These are rural and regional seats where personal votes and candidates matter, and this is the kind of thing that sheer spreadsheet nerdery can never account for. Maybe I’m dooming too hard, but don’t be surprised by a 5/7 result for the Liberals - and don’t think it means anything about the national.