For me the results in Carleton are most telling. It shows that a high quality candidate, who is willing to put in the work, supported by an effective get out the vote effort, can win a riding against long odds. Bruce Fanjoy deserves this victory.
My advice to the Liberals, start identifying 20-30 high quality candidates in key Ontario and Quebec ridings that were lost by 1-2%. Show these these candidates the Fanjoy path and support them appropriately.
Good work. Your writing style is unique and riveting. Our next project is to figure out why so many voted conservative when we could all see the danger of Trump right before our eyes. Well done you for outstanding and gripping writing.
I saw comments on a friend's page last night that they're sure Carney will bow the knee to Tr*mp and we'll become the 51st state. Another commenter said, "um, it was the other way around? PP was the danger?" So some propaganda out there used the 51st state fear to sway votes conservative?
Thank you for your coverage. I think our work has just started though. The vote percentages were way closer than I would have liked to have seen. With the threat of annexation on our doorstep, 41% of voters bought into the conservative message vs. just over 43% for the Liberals. We need to figure out what drove the Conservative vote and what we’re going to do about it.
Just browsing Substack this morning and thought I'd reply to your comment. I can't claim to know what drove people in general to vote Conservative but here's my take as someone who voted Conservative (but was not upset that Poilievre lost his seat).
YMMV but the last 10 years have been a mess. The government was constantly in deficit (even when times were good) and our productivity (a perennial problem) is low. GDP per capita is flat or declining and falling behind the US. Our government is slow, expensive and unable to succeed at large projects. It worries me that Carney's plan to deal with our productivity is yet another government fund - the last one ended up shutting down parliament to avoid the embarrassment of what happened with it.
Yes, Carney is a new guy, but unlike many Liberals I don't think he's Canadian Jesus. He has a great resume, but I was disappointed how quickly he started lying (about his past and his opponents). I'm also concerned that he was unwilling to reveal the contents of his blind trust, and hid behind the letter of the law.
His plans to deal with Trump's tariffs were pretty much the same as Poilievre's. That's not a criticism, just that if you are looking at policies their ideas for dealing with Trump were pretty similar. The Liberal's economic platform was as full as fairy dust and unicorns as the Conservatives (though it was definitely a few school grades ahead of the Conservative's paltry effort).
So, if you accept at least some of the above, to vote Liberal you have to buy into the argument that Carney is such a big deal that everything is going to change even though the rest of the team is the same. I don't - though I'd be overjoyed if I'm wrong!
Good call on your part... I expected a slight majority....but whatever..... I think a lot and I mean a lot of good and faithful NDP'ers changed their vote in order to give the Liberals the tools to fight the upcoming Trump fight and believe because of their sacrifice a special exception should be made parliament to keep their party status....They put country above party...
Feels like the joe Biden election like the bureaucracy wins but the chaos and conspiracies are lapping at the door. May mark carney be more effective than joe Biden at communicating in our new world and also helping people find safety in this uncertain time - neither is an easy ask….
We still need electoral reform in this country. I wish Trudeau had done it but I don’t see Carney entertaining it when we have so much else taking priority. Prairie progressives exist & need a way to be heard or they will continue to stay home or split votes and lose great candidates like Blake Desjarlais.
I agree. But “electoral reform” is often conflated with “proportional representation” but it is actually a much bigger set of actions.
They should pass some changes immediately like:
- all candidates must pass a police records check and an RCMP or CSIS security clearance in order to just qualify to run. We do not need traitors in the House.
- define and confine the role of the PM and PMO to be more of a Chair of the Board type role in order to empower the ministers so that Cabinet discussions are more robust instead of taking marching orders from the PM.
- political parties need to be certified. In order to be certified there are some requirements. For example:
— most importantly, they must publish and keep current a list of laws and policies they intend to enact if elected. What they intend to do, not what they intend to oppose.
— They must agree to a set of guiding principles that also limit the role of any party to electoral activities not governing activities (get the f*ck out of the Cabinet and civil service please).
— they must train all candidates and staff in politics 101 so they know their roles and how this version of democracy is supposed to work, not just how to screw your opponent.
Congratulations .. to both of us - & Canadians as well .. was a historic Win for Canada
Zero ‘apologies or fucks given..’ but I’ve just ‘begun to Shit On Pierre4Poilievre & Jenni Byrne & Stephen Harper & Ray Novak - & their Megalithic Reform/IDU Separatist Evangel Cult. And that includes All the Overt & Fanatical PartisanMedia piggybacking with Poilievre’s Personal MediaMachine.. (have a nice day with your ‘Merch’ - Anaida !)
More ‘later & today.. Enjoy your Rest young man .. hard earned & well deserved !
Yes ! Major Toasts to Bruce Fanjoy & his brilliantly simple Crew & Campaign & Ethics !
I knew ‘Poutine was Vulnerable when Candice Bergen suddenly vacated Ottawa & ‘it was i who called it ! The ideological sleeze Harper now looks like the ‘proud’ owner of tarnished ‘legacy & completely toxic ‘citizen of the world .. & is totally Vulnerable Himself NOW ! Endorsing the avowed separatist Danielle Smith !
‘Today Is A Great.. & Historic Day.. To Be Canadian .. ! the Salamanders have Spoken !
Evan, do you have any insight as to how/why Liberal Ronnie LeBlanc lost to Con Chris d'Entremont in Acadie- Annapolis when most of Nova Scotia went Liberal? In an interview today, d'Entremont said it was the fishing issue/fight with the previous federal Liberal government. However, Chris, the incumbent, was in Parliament for 4 years and did SFA to help it. Meanwhile, Ronnie is a career lobster man and a previous MLA. They both have Acadian roots, just from opposite coasts of the province. MIMS. Thanks.
I'm interested in this too- this was my old riding before this election but we shifted into Kings-Hants with the new boundaries. It's an interesting voting demographic: fishermen (mostly lobster/scallop) and farmers.
I grew up on Cape Sable Island, the southernmost point of NS, and was THRILLED to see the Liberal candidate win by a great margin in South Shore-St Margaret's! All the angry white men are going to be upset today!
Looks like there are still some ballots remaining there according to the info on the Elections Canada site. Only 500 votes between the Cons and Libs. The NDP canidate has 1,742. 🤷♀️🤦♀️
This was a nice piece to read and a deserved victory lap.
I would quibble on the idea that the supply and confidence agreement was a "mistake".
Politics isn't a game, it has real stakes for real people, and the C&S Agreement secured perhaps the three biggest progressive policy achievements of Trudeau's entire run as PM (childcare, dentalcare, a skeleton of pharmacare). Real people are better off because of the agreement, and if Singh leaves the arena having achieved those results he'll have achieved a lot more than most politicians manage.
The agreement may have been a political mistake, but it was a policy success, and any politician with integrity should make that trade 100 times out of 100.
Sleep well. I am still hoping at least three of those four votes may come from Southern Ontario. There are three very close races, and who knows, one or two polling stations may be the 500 votes needed to win that seat for the Liberals.
Dave Thaler: I agree with you that Carney is more of a centrist conservative than a traditional liberal (though I would be kinder to him and call him a progressive conservative), but take issue with your characterization of the NDP as “far left”. I’ve been NDP my whole life and I can tell you from the inside that, if anything, the party has drifted more and more toward a rather muddled “centre” - and in my view, that’s the problem with it right now. Are there some “far left” people in the party? Sure. But none of them are actually in office. I agree that Jagmeet Singh has been an ineffective leader and I look forward to what I hope will be an invigorating leadership campaign as they look to replace him. I also hope the party will reexamine its soul and get a lot clearer on its “why”. We need a party that fights for the many who have been dealt a bum hand by the prevailing social and economic systems, and who will continue to fall through the cracks without a party to advocate for them. Remember that virtually all the progressive legislation Canada has ever enjoyed, from Medicare to student loans to dental care to you-name-it, happened during minority Liberal governments that had their feet held to the fire by the NDP. OK. End of sermon.
It's a sad state of affairs when the winner, who started out and is actually a centrist Conservative, win under the Liberal banner. The far left under Singh got tossed into the dustbin of history...see ya'.
The Cons have drifted so far right they wound up under Donald's shoe.
Canadians have different priorities, we value integrety and character.
"Whatever personal affection you may have for Trudeau, this is a result he never could have achieved, and the Liberals needed to stop Poilievre" EXACTLY 👏👏
For me the results in Carleton are most telling. It shows that a high quality candidate, who is willing to put in the work, supported by an effective get out the vote effort, can win a riding against long odds. Bruce Fanjoy deserves this victory.
My advice to the Liberals, start identifying 20-30 high quality candidates in key Ontario and Quebec ridings that were lost by 1-2%. Show these these candidates the Fanjoy path and support them appropriately.
Well stated! I'm jist sorry that more aren't focused on PP's defeat.
This is really, really good advice. I hope they take it.
Well done, Evan!
Maybe between a couple of flips to the Liberals and maybe a couple of floor crossings from the NDP a majority will be possible.
But…. FANJOY!!!! Love it!
Good work. Your writing style is unique and riveting. Our next project is to figure out why so many voted conservative when we could all see the danger of Trump right before our eyes. Well done you for outstanding and gripping writing.
I saw comments on a friend's page last night that they're sure Carney will bow the knee to Tr*mp and we'll become the 51st state. Another commenter said, "um, it was the other way around? PP was the danger?" So some propaganda out there used the 51st state fear to sway votes conservative?
Thank you for your coverage. I think our work has just started though. The vote percentages were way closer than I would have liked to have seen. With the threat of annexation on our doorstep, 41% of voters bought into the conservative message vs. just over 43% for the Liberals. We need to figure out what drove the Conservative vote and what we’re going to do about it.
Just browsing Substack this morning and thought I'd reply to your comment. I can't claim to know what drove people in general to vote Conservative but here's my take as someone who voted Conservative (but was not upset that Poilievre lost his seat).
YMMV but the last 10 years have been a mess. The government was constantly in deficit (even when times were good) and our productivity (a perennial problem) is low. GDP per capita is flat or declining and falling behind the US. Our government is slow, expensive and unable to succeed at large projects. It worries me that Carney's plan to deal with our productivity is yet another government fund - the last one ended up shutting down parliament to avoid the embarrassment of what happened with it.
Yes, Carney is a new guy, but unlike many Liberals I don't think he's Canadian Jesus. He has a great resume, but I was disappointed how quickly he started lying (about his past and his opponents). I'm also concerned that he was unwilling to reveal the contents of his blind trust, and hid behind the letter of the law.
His plans to deal with Trump's tariffs were pretty much the same as Poilievre's. That's not a criticism, just that if you are looking at policies their ideas for dealing with Trump were pretty similar. The Liberal's economic platform was as full as fairy dust and unicorns as the Conservatives (though it was definitely a few school grades ahead of the Conservative's paltry effort).
So, if you accept at least some of the above, to vote Liberal you have to buy into the argument that Carney is such a big deal that everything is going to change even though the rest of the team is the same. I don't - though I'd be overjoyed if I'm wrong!
Good call on your part... I expected a slight majority....but whatever..... I think a lot and I mean a lot of good and faithful NDP'ers changed their vote in order to give the Liberals the tools to fight the upcoming Trump fight and believe because of their sacrifice a special exception should be made parliament to keep their party status....They put country above party...
Im one of those life long NDPers, but I couldn’t risk the Cons getting in and also Jagmeet sucks.
Thank you for putting country above party.......We need more Canadians like you....
Same. Hope they get a new leader soon.
Thank you for your service.
Yes, that was me as well.
And me, and my husband, and several friends.
Thank you for your service soldier……
Feels like the joe Biden election like the bureaucracy wins but the chaos and conspiracies are lapping at the door. May mark carney be more effective than joe Biden at communicating in our new world and also helping people find safety in this uncertain time - neither is an easy ask….
We still need electoral reform in this country. I wish Trudeau had done it but I don’t see Carney entertaining it when we have so much else taking priority. Prairie progressives exist & need a way to be heard or they will continue to stay home or split votes and lose great candidates like Blake Desjarlais.
I agree. But “electoral reform” is often conflated with “proportional representation” but it is actually a much bigger set of actions.
They should pass some changes immediately like:
- all candidates must pass a police records check and an RCMP or CSIS security clearance in order to just qualify to run. We do not need traitors in the House.
- define and confine the role of the PM and PMO to be more of a Chair of the Board type role in order to empower the ministers so that Cabinet discussions are more robust instead of taking marching orders from the PM.
- political parties need to be certified. In order to be certified there are some requirements. For example:
— most importantly, they must publish and keep current a list of laws and policies they intend to enact if elected. What they intend to do, not what they intend to oppose.
— They must agree to a set of guiding principles that also limit the role of any party to electoral activities not governing activities (get the f*ck out of the Cabinet and civil service please).
— they must train all candidates and staff in politics 101 so they know their roles and how this version of democracy is supposed to work, not just how to screw your opponent.
…we could go on.
Congratulations .. to both of us - & Canadians as well .. was a historic Win for Canada
Zero ‘apologies or fucks given..’ but I’ve just ‘begun to Shit On Pierre4Poilievre & Jenni Byrne & Stephen Harper & Ray Novak - & their Megalithic Reform/IDU Separatist Evangel Cult. And that includes All the Overt & Fanatical PartisanMedia piggybacking with Poilievre’s Personal MediaMachine.. (have a nice day with your ‘Merch’ - Anaida !)
More ‘later & today.. Enjoy your Rest young man .. hard earned & well deserved !
Yes ! Major Toasts to Bruce Fanjoy & his brilliantly simple Crew & Campaign & Ethics !
I knew ‘Poutine was Vulnerable when Candice Bergen suddenly vacated Ottawa & ‘it was i who called it ! The ideological sleeze Harper now looks like the ‘proud’ owner of tarnished ‘legacy & completely toxic ‘citizen of the world .. & is totally Vulnerable Himself NOW ! Endorsing the avowed separatist Danielle Smith !
‘Today Is A Great.. & Historic Day.. To Be Canadian .. ! the Salamanders have Spoken !
🦎🏴☠️💋🍁
Evan, do you have any insight as to how/why Liberal Ronnie LeBlanc lost to Con Chris d'Entremont in Acadie- Annapolis when most of Nova Scotia went Liberal? In an interview today, d'Entremont said it was the fishing issue/fight with the previous federal Liberal government. However, Chris, the incumbent, was in Parliament for 4 years and did SFA to help it. Meanwhile, Ronnie is a career lobster man and a previous MLA. They both have Acadian roots, just from opposite coasts of the province. MIMS. Thanks.
I'm interested in this too- this was my old riding before this election but we shifted into Kings-Hants with the new boundaries. It's an interesting voting demographic: fishermen (mostly lobster/scallop) and farmers.
I grew up on Cape Sable Island, the southernmost point of NS, and was THRILLED to see the Liberal candidate win by a great margin in South Shore-St Margaret's! All the angry white men are going to be upset today!
Looks like there are still some ballots remaining there according to the info on the Elections Canada site. Only 500 votes between the Cons and Libs. The NDP canidate has 1,742. 🤷♀️🤦♀️
This was a nice piece to read and a deserved victory lap.
I would quibble on the idea that the supply and confidence agreement was a "mistake".
Politics isn't a game, it has real stakes for real people, and the C&S Agreement secured perhaps the three biggest progressive policy achievements of Trudeau's entire run as PM (childcare, dentalcare, a skeleton of pharmacare). Real people are better off because of the agreement, and if Singh leaves the arena having achieved those results he'll have achieved a lot more than most politicians manage.
The agreement may have been a political mistake, but it was a policy success, and any politician with integrity should make that trade 100 times out of 100.
Sleep well. I am still hoping at least three of those four votes may come from Southern Ontario. There are three very close races, and who knows, one or two polling stations may be the 500 votes needed to win that seat for the Liberals.
So here’s hoping.
Dave Thaler: I agree with you that Carney is more of a centrist conservative than a traditional liberal (though I would be kinder to him and call him a progressive conservative), but take issue with your characterization of the NDP as “far left”. I’ve been NDP my whole life and I can tell you from the inside that, if anything, the party has drifted more and more toward a rather muddled “centre” - and in my view, that’s the problem with it right now. Are there some “far left” people in the party? Sure. But none of them are actually in office. I agree that Jagmeet Singh has been an ineffective leader and I look forward to what I hope will be an invigorating leadership campaign as they look to replace him. I also hope the party will reexamine its soul and get a lot clearer on its “why”. We need a party that fights for the many who have been dealt a bum hand by the prevailing social and economic systems, and who will continue to fall through the cracks without a party to advocate for them. Remember that virtually all the progressive legislation Canada has ever enjoyed, from Medicare to student loans to dental care to you-name-it, happened during minority Liberal governments that had their feet held to the fire by the NDP. OK. End of sermon.
It's a sad state of affairs when the winner, who started out and is actually a centrist Conservative, win under the Liberal banner. The far left under Singh got tossed into the dustbin of history...see ya'.
The Cons have drifted so far right they wound up under Donald's shoe.
Canadians have different priorities, we value integrety and character.
The winner last night has it in spades.
"Whatever personal affection you may have for Trudeau, this is a result he never could have achieved, and the Liberals needed to stop Poilievre" EXACTLY 👏👏
I’m exhausted but very happy!
So... the Global Fucking Realignment lives?