So if the definitive answer is the pollsters in Canada are reliable for many good reasons, maybe a better question is, what’s wrong with polling in the US? Why aren’t they constrained by the same factors to get their data correct?
Even their “misses” haven’t been particularly inaccurate in terms of the raw polling numbers. If the polls say it’s going to be 51/49, but it ends up being 49/51 and the other guy wins that’s not a meaningful polling miss.
Partly it’s that their elections are so high stakes that the predictions made based on the polling are given a huge amount of attention. Partly I think their electoral college can have a magnifying effect on even slight polling differences
So if the definitive answer is the pollsters in Canada are reliable for many good reasons, maybe a better question is, what’s wrong with polling in the US? Why aren’t they constrained by the same factors to get their data correct?
Even their “misses” haven’t been particularly inaccurate in terms of the raw polling numbers. If the polls say it’s going to be 51/49, but it ends up being 49/51 and the other guy wins that’s not a meaningful polling miss.
Partly it’s that their elections are so high stakes that the predictions made based on the polling are given a huge amount of attention. Partly I think their electoral college can have a magnifying effect on even slight polling differences