In Defence Of Trudeau's Trump Strategy

Stop Asking For Them To Overreact

I cannot think of anything more pathetic than what Canadians seem to think would be standing up to Donald Trump. Thomas Lukaszuk, a former Deputy Premier of Alberta, called Trump’s latest annexation salvo/joke something that “must concern us all” and that “cannot be tolerated”. There are various ideas that the election of Trump should somehow force a Canadian election, or some united force to fight the American threat together. And my response to all of it is to be shocked that we’re all so fucking pathetic.

What the Liberals are doing is very good - this is not a criticism of them or of the idea of a Team Canada approach. Getting the Premiers, business, labour, and the Opposition all on the same page - or at least in the same loop - is great. This is not a criticism of this government, mostly because this government isn’t really doing very much in response to these comments. Which, to be clear, they shouldn’t! And the reason they shouldn’t is that if we actually are a real, mature, independent country, then you don’t need to keep consistently reminding people.

Here’s the problem for those asking for extraordinary measures or big speeches or any form of unusual response - if we’re really a proper country then the democratic, peaceful choice of an ally’s people is not a national crisis. If it is, you’re not a proper country. It can be a problem, but this notion of a true crisis is absurdist nonsense. But more importantly it’s a sign of whether people want a government that makes them feel good or one that can actually manage the problem of Trump’s election. And I know the last thing we need is nonsense pandering designed to make us feel good.

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There’s really no way to talk about this honestly without just being blunt - those people who want us to scream that ”#Actually We Are Independent And Won’t Be Trampled With” at every provocation of the Trump Transition have some of the most truly pathetic small dick energy we’ve ever seen. It’s a hot dog hollering. It’s people deeply insecure about something taking that insecurity out in fits of nonsense designed to convince people of something that’s very obviously not true.

When it’s a guy loudly proclaiming that they get laid whenever they want despite no evidence otherwise, we get it’s overcompensation. We understand this in a social context, and yet a number of Canadians seem to want the Prime Minister to loudly proclaim that we don’t need America with the same seriousness and credibility of a Leafs fan claiming that it’s actually their this year! (Actually, significantly less seriousness and credibility - the fucking 2021 Habs that only made the playoffs because of the dumb bubble rules made a Finals, and haven’t even sniffed a playoff spot since. Winning the Cup is actually much more realistic than what these idiots are proposing.)

What the government is doing is what people who actually have the asset or attributes that are under discussion do - they don’t focus on winning the public debate, they focus on achieving outcomes. And, as critical of the Federal Liberals I am these days, on this front they’re doing everything seemingly right. I spent most of Monday’s podcast with David Coletto (listen!) critical of them, but here they’re absolutely in the right.

Let’s say Trudeau comes out today flanked by whoever you like - all the Premiers, all the party leaders, a group of esteemed Canadians, or even all of the above. He stares down the camera, puts on his best serious voice, and says that Canada has won a war of southern aggression once before and that if need be they will fight one again. He says that Canadians may respect America, but the fundamental glory of Canada is in its learnings both from American success but also American failure. He says that we will not subjugate Canadians to any nonsense from a wannabe authoritarian. What happens the minute he’s done giving that speech?

I’m sure a bunch of idiots would feel better about themselves, including the former Deputy Premier who once accused the UCP of gerrymandering districts that were actually redrawn during the NDP term by an independent commission who started their work before the UCP existed. (Was that strictly necessary? No. Is it worth adding to shit on him? Yes.) But it would get a reaction from Washington, including from the famously volatile President-elect who is known for having enemies. It would do no good except in making some of us feel better.

I don’t know this, but it does seem likely to me that Trump’s continuing with this line of provocation in large part because it’s not getting a response from us. Annexing Canada isn’t happening, and a serious or credible attempt at it isn’t either. There is no universe in which an admin with the active crises it faces in Ukraine, Israel/Gaza, and Syria, plus the cold but important conflict-in-all-but-name with China, would ever muster the theoretical capacity to plan such a strike, let alone the actual capacity to attack. You have Elon and Vivek agreeing with Bernie Sanders that military spending cuts are on the table in their fake Not-A-Department, but they’re gonna invade and annex Canada. Sure.

If it seems like I’m being dismissive of all of this, it’s because there’s actually been a clear pattern to what Trump will and won’t actually do in office. People love to point to January 6th as some evidence that he could do anything in the future, but even then it’s always been the case that Trump’s bark is bigger than his bite. He loses interest in ideas that bore him easily, he is easily persuaded by the most recent person he talked to, and he has no core ideological convictions. He wants power, and he (mostly) shirks from fights that will make that harder. To the extent that January 6th deviates from that, which I don’t think it actually does, it does so in that Trump felt he had nothing to lose from it.

The idea that Trump is actually prepared to waste any political capital on an idea that would plainly end his administration before it begins is laughable. But engaging in the dumbassery of many would make the actually genuinely terrifying prospects of economic pain more real. What people cosplaying as defenders of Canada are actually proposing is a policy that will make us feel better, and immeasurably poorer too. It’s unCanadian.

What the Trudeau government is doing is playing a very bad hand about as well as they can. They have certain assets, but we are a smaller, economically reliant country that relies on American goodwill as a replacement for genuinely innovative economic policy. We can fight about what extent the fault lies with Pierre Trudeau or Brian Mulroney or Doug Ford or Mike Harris or Chretien or whoever the fuck another time. Right now we have to play the cards we have well. And what so many seem to want is counterproductive claptrap. If someone can articulate an actual path from Trudeau forcefully condemning these comments to a good outcome for Canadians I’ll listen to the case. But it doesn’t exist. Now, for your sake, stop embarrassing yourselves.