Good analysis as usual but I think you missed the two big events this week who make me feel PP may have another hard week.l: Tuesday April 1st removal of the customers carbon tax and Wednesday April 2nd Trump worldwide tarifs. This will probably get all the media traction, which is not bad for carney
The April Fool’s removal of the Carbon Tax is a Conservative victory, except the Conservatives are not adept enough to make the point.
The Carbon Tax was THE signature climate change policy of the Trudeau Government and it is now in tatters. For the Liberals to turncoat their own green agenda in a cynical vote getting venture is apparent to anyone following along.
I don't disagree with you. The carbox tax is being removed largely because the CPC has been so sucessful in making it a wedge issue. However, when gas prices will drop tomorrow, the credit will go to Carney.
The credit might go to Carney. If the Conservative election team has a clue they will flood the media with ads taking credit for reducing their cost of living.
I agree with you this would be the logic things to do. Let's see if the conservatives campaign can refocus on things that matter for this elections after having make a couple of strategic mistakes.
Or the Conservatives will take the blame for us no longer getting those cheques.
Many of us received far more from the rebate than we could possibly pay in the Carbon Tax.
My problem with the way the Liberals did the policy is that there were far too many Tax expendatures (too many exceptions -- 100% of what was collected should have gone to citizens), and the tax rate was too low to actually cause a shift in energy efficiency.
I can disagree with the Liberals and the Conservatives at the same time. There isn't a False Binary, and these parties are not the "opposite" of each other.
If you want it to be a Carbon Tax then no rebate would make sense. I understand why the current Populist Conservatives want it to be a Carbon Tax, because they can then push the "all taxes are bad" and "there is only one taxpayer" simplistic rhetoric.
If you want it to be a Tax Shift, which is where the policy comes from (Green Tax Shifts), then not a penny of the money can go into general revenue. What is collected in Income Taxes by the government must go down by the exact amount that was collected on carbon.
This is one of the problems with the way the Liberals rolled this out -- they muddying the waters about whether it was a New Tax or a Tax Shift. They opened the door to critque. This is something the Liberals do on many policies: appear to have a good idea, but then implement it in a way that will generate failures. I don't know if this is incompetence or dishonesty, but the outcome of policy failures ends up the same.
Recognizing that what the Liberals did is wrong isn't the same thing as agreeing with the current Populist Conservatives that Canada should continue to effectively subsidize certain polluting industries by allowing them to externalize costs onto taxpayers.
Agree 100%. What they guy did was reprehensible and the LPC needs to set him loose and find another candidate if they can. If not, sacrificing the seat to the QPC or the NDP would at least allow the Liberals to take the moral high ground.
I for one am not in favour of a middle class tax cut. Something for folks with kids or those living with disabilities then yes. But not tax cuts which won’t mean much in real dollar terms. And what ever happened to reducing the gap between the ultra wealthy and the rest of us? If I were the NDP I would hit the Liberals hard on that point.
A tax cut doesn't mean a thing when it represents a credit value based on a percent of net income before deductibles. The line item is absorbed as the allowable expenses are max'd based on Gross Income. We've been around the block before.
Taxes always increase. I've been retired for 3 years and my taxes due have increased each year based on my pension income. As a teacher, I always owed as well. I have no recall of ever paying enough tax, despite decades of tax relief promises.
Our elbows are up in AB, fighting the legacy of Preston Manning as it is channeled through the Maple MAGAt lips of Danielle Smith and the UCP, while embracing the hope that Carney brings to the majority of Canadians who actually care about our sovereignty. Polls are notoriously unreliable; the energy, respect and support at the grassroots level for our new PM is not.
One of the things I like about this Substack is that the author is not narrowly focused on "National" polls, but tries to bring discussions to local politics which is what matters. While it is regularly mentioned that Quebec isn't the same as Ontario (Or Alberta), it is also true that Ottawa isn't the same as Toronto (with there being so many regional differences within each province).
The importance of local politics is something I find is missed by those who are focused on "National" polls or the interests of "National" parties.
I bring up electoral reform regularly, and my opposition to optimizing Parliamentary Seat counts to being based on some alleged National support for National political parties (the common misunderstanding of Proportional Representation). That type of thinking may make sense in the context of smaller countries, but makes no sense at all in the context of Canada or any of its provinces.
I agree with those who believe the current voting system is flawed, but I disagree that National Party focused PR is the alternative. Those looking to promote positive change need to take a closer look at the functioning of Parliament and the People who sit in those seats representing their regions, and spend less time narrowly focused on the special interests of National Parties.
I hope you're correct about Niagara South -- it's my riding. Liberal MP Vance Badawey is a good, hard-working representative, but the Cons are never far behind in this riding. And the boundaries have changed, too, which means we get Fort Erie (some Maple MAGA nut-cases in that border town) in exchange for Thorold (that birthed ONDP strength in the region). The Cons are a nasty bunch at all levels of government here...
My fear is that tariffs and Trump both subside in the voters’ minds such that issues like cost of living, shortage of doctors or even immigration will rise to the forefront. That would burst the Carney balloon and return them to earth. But, please please disagree with me 👍🏻🍁
Your fears are well founded. Any focus on the Liberals record in the last 10 years, will bring their polling numbers down with a thud. That’s why it’s crucial to focus on Trump Trump Trump!
PP is visiting Saint John NB today. Sponsored, I am sure, by the Irving interests. But a PP appearance will only help the Grits. Wayne Long (never a friend of Justin btw) will be reelected.
Good analysis as usual but I think you missed the two big events this week who make me feel PP may have another hard week.l: Tuesday April 1st removal of the customers carbon tax and Wednesday April 2nd Trump worldwide tarifs. This will probably get all the media traction, which is not bad for carney
Good point. Plus, count on more random help from Danielle Smith.
The April Fool’s removal of the Carbon Tax is a Conservative victory, except the Conservatives are not adept enough to make the point.
The Carbon Tax was THE signature climate change policy of the Trudeau Government and it is now in tatters. For the Liberals to turncoat their own green agenda in a cynical vote getting venture is apparent to anyone following along.
I don't disagree with you. The carbox tax is being removed largely because the CPC has been so sucessful in making it a wedge issue. However, when gas prices will drop tomorrow, the credit will go to Carney.
The credit might go to Carney. If the Conservative election team has a clue they will flood the media with ads taking credit for reducing their cost of living.
I agree with you this would be the logic things to do. Let's see if the conservatives campaign can refocus on things that matter for this elections after having make a couple of strategic mistakes.
Or the Conservatives will take the blame for us no longer getting those cheques.
Many of us received far more from the rebate than we could possibly pay in the Carbon Tax.
My problem with the way the Liberals did the policy is that there were far too many Tax expendatures (too many exceptions -- 100% of what was collected should have gone to citizens), and the tax rate was too low to actually cause a shift in energy efficiency.
I can disagree with the Liberals and the Conservatives at the same time. There isn't a False Binary, and these parties are not the "opposite" of each other.
A fair carbon tax would rebate NO money to anyone. That way, the tax is transparent and voters can decide if it’s good policy.
If you want it to be a Carbon Tax then no rebate would make sense. I understand why the current Populist Conservatives want it to be a Carbon Tax, because they can then push the "all taxes are bad" and "there is only one taxpayer" simplistic rhetoric.
If you want it to be a Tax Shift, which is where the policy comes from (Green Tax Shifts), then not a penny of the money can go into general revenue. What is collected in Income Taxes by the government must go down by the exact amount that was collected on carbon.
This is one of the problems with the way the Liberals rolled this out -- they muddying the waters about whether it was a New Tax or a Tax Shift. They opened the door to critque. This is something the Liberals do on many policies: appear to have a good idea, but then implement it in a way that will generate failures. I don't know if this is incompetence or dishonesty, but the outcome of policy failures ends up the same.
Recognizing that what the Liberals did is wrong isn't the same thing as agreeing with the current Populist Conservatives that Canada should continue to effectively subsidize certain polluting industries by allowing them to externalize costs onto taxpayers.
Or in other words: It is never too late to panic.
Having said that, it is time to drop Paul Chiang.
They’ve really got to do something about that. At the least it needs a better explanation so we understand why he is kept in.
Wondering if the current effort is “Look dude, we’ll let you back out and save some face. You have until Monday at h:mm.”
Agree 100%. What they guy did was reprehensible and the LPC needs to set him loose and find another candidate if they can. If not, sacrificing the seat to the QPC or the NDP would at least allow the Liberals to take the moral high ground.
Danielle Smith is NUTS!
I for one am not in favour of a middle class tax cut. Something for folks with kids or those living with disabilities then yes. But not tax cuts which won’t mean much in real dollar terms. And what ever happened to reducing the gap between the ultra wealthy and the rest of us? If I were the NDP I would hit the Liberals hard on that point.
I agree!
I don’t need that tax cut
A tax cut doesn't mean a thing when it represents a credit value based on a percent of net income before deductibles. The line item is absorbed as the allowable expenses are max'd based on Gross Income. We've been around the block before.
Taxes always increase. I've been retired for 3 years and my taxes due have increased each year based on my pension income. As a teacher, I always owed as well. I have no recall of ever paying enough tax, despite decades of tax relief promises.
Our elbows are up in AB, fighting the legacy of Preston Manning as it is channeled through the Maple MAGAt lips of Danielle Smith and the UCP, while embracing the hope that Carney brings to the majority of Canadians who actually care about our sovereignty. Polls are notoriously unreliable; the energy, respect and support at the grassroots level for our new PM is not.
A good thing if liberals have a bit of panic.
Would help get them to a polling station.
One of the things I like about this Substack is that the author is not narrowly focused on "National" polls, but tries to bring discussions to local politics which is what matters. While it is regularly mentioned that Quebec isn't the same as Ontario (Or Alberta), it is also true that Ottawa isn't the same as Toronto (with there being so many regional differences within each province).
The importance of local politics is something I find is missed by those who are focused on "National" polls or the interests of "National" parties.
I bring up electoral reform regularly, and my opposition to optimizing Parliamentary Seat counts to being based on some alleged National support for National political parties (the common misunderstanding of Proportional Representation). That type of thinking may make sense in the context of smaller countries, but makes no sense at all in the context of Canada or any of its provinces.
I agree with those who believe the current voting system is flawed, but I disagree that National Party focused PR is the alternative. Those looking to promote positive change need to take a closer look at the functioning of Parliament and the People who sit in those seats representing their regions, and spend less time narrowly focused on the special interests of National Parties.
Carney’s
Got this 🇨🇦❤️
I have a hard time believing these polls. Based on what exactly? All because there's an idiot to the south?
If there js one thing cdnpoli has shown is it reacts to idiots to the south, largely to LPC favour.
This election is akin to a Seinfeld episode.
The Liberals have massively rebounded because of tarrifs and removing their existing policies?
As for things getting cheaper…
The price of gas here in Vancouver is up 20 cents over last week so even if the carbon tax is taken off it will still be more expensive.
"Aaron Rodgers rock & roll, take us to rhe Super Bowl."
Oh yeah, Scrimshaw went there.
Good column overall but I was irredeemably excited by the mention of next NDP leader "Eight (seats) is Enough" Niki Ashton.
Carry on.
I hope you're correct about Niagara South -- it's my riding. Liberal MP Vance Badawey is a good, hard-working representative, but the Cons are never far behind in this riding. And the boundaries have changed, too, which means we get Fort Erie (some Maple MAGA nut-cases in that border town) in exchange for Thorold (that birthed ONDP strength in the region). The Cons are a nasty bunch at all levels of government here...
My fear is that tariffs and Trump both subside in the voters’ minds such that issues like cost of living, shortage of doctors or even immigration will rise to the forefront. That would burst the Carney balloon and return them to earth. But, please please disagree with me 👍🏻🍁
Your fears are well founded. Any focus on the Liberals record in the last 10 years, will bring their polling numbers down with a thud. That’s why it’s crucial to focus on Trump Trump Trump!
Needed this…
Why?
Would you consider a deeper dive into my Riding of Peterborough and Michelle Ferreri? A big NoMoreMPFerreri campaign is underway.
PP is visiting Saint John NB today. Sponsored, I am sure, by the Irving interests. But a PP appearance will only help the Grits. Wayne Long (never a friend of Justin btw) will be reelected.