Is Pierre Poilievre’s Carleton Vulnerable?

On Leaks And Liberal Dreams

Pierre Poilievre is probably not losing Carleton.

It’s a bit insane that I’m even having to write that sentence, but reporting in both the Star and the Globe on Wednesday has varying levels of Conservatives expressing concern, with Ontario PC polling showing a 14 point Liberal lead provincewide and a significant lead in Ottawa. It’s a pretty bad sign that’s made much worse by Tim Houston releasing a nominally apolitical video about how Nova Scotia he is, because if you actually think that was apolitical I have Pacific Ocean access in Regina.

The problem for Conservatives at a macro level is the fact that I had to start this column saying “probably”, because I can’t say beyond a shadow of a doubt Poilievre will win it. He probably will, but it’s not quite guaranteed. And it seems worth going through it, mostly because I’m really and truly out of content otherwise. (If this were two weeks ago I’d get a full column out of the IRG poll on Wednesday but that thing is a nonsense outlier, and with less than a week the response is to applaud them for putting it out, toss it in the model, and move on.)

The case for Carleton being safe and this being idiocy is really easy to make, but we should make it again. In my model it’s about a 12% lead for Poilievre, the land it traded with Kanata was exceptionally CPC-friendly, boosting the overall margin by about 4% by losing some suburbs and gaining some Carp, and the CPC did win the new seat by 20% last time. That’s all true, as far as it goes.

There’s two cases against that, however - one localized, and one born out from other data in this election. We’ve heard so much about Conservative potential gains with ethnic minority voters and in the 905, the possibility of the CPC realigning and doing better in heavily non-white seats. The counterpoint of that is if you do better in Brampton and Scarborough and Markham and Don Valley, and you do significantly worse province wide (which, on margin, they’re on track to do), you need above average swings in some places to make the math add up. Assuming it’s in Carleton is a mistake; pointing out it might be isn’t.

The YouGov MRP, which I don’t think is wildly important but is interesting in the way that leaked rumours about what NHL players are cheating on their wives are, makes a similar point not about Carleton directly. They have the CPC making gains north of Toronto, while the Liberals gain Niagara Falls, Niagara South, and Bay Of Quinte. It wouldn’t be completely shocking, if Poilievre is really inducing huge amounts of swing towards the CPC in minority communities while polling 9% down in Ontario - double O’Toole’s margin - that there are whiter seats where the other side of that realignment shows up.

The local case for Poilievre being in trouble is also fairly easy to make. Carleton still has a lot of civil servants, even as some were lost to Kanata, and the embrace of stringent and unclear efficiencies is hurting. Why it doesn’t seem to be hurting Carney, despite a similar scope of cuts, could be put down to him saying it’ll merely be attrition but also a belief he won’t actually do it. (Whether that double standard is fair is irrelevant to the fact it seems to exist.)

The Convoy is also a complicated legacy, because it plays very differently in the different parts of the riding. As a resident of the riding now, I can say in Stittsville, it’s a problem for him, and something that is brought up in conversation. But it’s a significantly lesser issue, and if anything a help, when you get outside of the places that consider themselves properly part of Ottawa.

This is the thing about Carleton, and was always true when Kanata extended out to Carp too - you have a mix of places that claim their status at Ottawa happily, and a bunch of places that view the city with hostility. This combination of Kanata and Carleton makes a lot more sense, trading suburban precincts that hit better in Kanata for rurals that should be in Carleton gives two seats that are closer to some form of coherent sense of community and self, but it’s also made Carleton a lot harder to win.

Look, we all know - or at least are pretty fucking sure we know - who the unnamed PCPO insider that is giving these quotes is, but I think people are conflating two things. Yes, Kory Teneycke, or whoever close to him, is probably the reason this is becoming a narrative. It’s absolutely the case that you should interpret his interventions, both on Curse Of Politics and seemingly here, through the lens of everything else going on, which you can interpret however you like. But it’s also the case that if Pierre Poilievre wins on Monday, Kory will look like a fucking idiot and be personally worse off to the tune of hundreds of thousands to potentially millions of dollars through the thorough and complete destruction his reputation, and therefore business, would endure. Kory has every incentive not to be wrong about this, or at least not this wrong.

Now, that doesn’t mean Carleton has to go, but I just don’t see a world where it’s not close. There’s been rumours of tight internal polling, one of which showed up in the Globe (a one point race). The combination of the province wide swing in Ontario, Poilievre having run very strong local campaigns that he can’t now do, and the energy and enthusiasm behind Bruce Fanjoy, Carleton’s probably a single digit race. Is that close? Who knows. I still don’t think we’ve got much of a chance, and the Conservatives should win the seat.

But I can’t say they definitely will, and that’s the true state of this campaign.