I am in the Carleton riding. Although I would very much like to see a victorious Bruce Fanjoy on Monday evening, it is hard to find the numbers to support this.
Let’s look at 2021:
CPC: 35k
LPC: 24k
NDP: 8k
PPC: 1.7k votes
What has changed?
Riding became more rural with the boundary changes. Riverside South, part of the riding and more LPC friendly, grew by 4-5000 people. PPC is not running a candidate in 2025. On balance, this is probably a gain for the CPC, but let’s argue it is a wash.
So, Pierre starts with 35k votes and that is probably realistic as the absolute CPC support has actually not changed that much. Therefore the gap is 11k. Now, let’s collapse the NDP vote and allocate 3/4 of this to the LPC. That would be 6k additional orange votes for Bruce. Now the gap is 5k.
To bridge these remaining 5k votes we would have to argue that there are significant local effects. Can we give Bruce a “putting in the hard work” bonus? Can we give Pierre a “convoy” penalty? It is possible, but without an actual local riding poll, we are just speculating.
Now, I have been called twice on the landline for a local riding poll. So, one or both parties are interested enough to see if there is local effect. My two cents, close enough to be concerned, but still very much an uphill battle for Bruce.
EDIT:
I am changing my mind. I suspect that the internal polling shows indeed a neck-to-neck race or even losing race in Carleton. Why? Poilievre is closing his campaign with a rally in Greely at a wedding event centre that can hold a maximum of 400 people. That is not a winning campaign. A winning campaign is flying from East to West, 10 stops along the way, all close ridings. Finishing your campaign with an intimate gathering of your closest friends is throwing in the towel.
EDIT2: Elections Canada has reported the turn out for the advance voting days per riding. 43.400 early votes in Carleton. That is a lot. If the total number of votes is again around 70k, it would mean that over 65% of the people that vote, have already voted. I have a hard time seeing this being a function of enthusiasm for Poilievre.
You've built in an assumption that all those CPC voters will stick with Poilievre. You've completely ignored the possibility that some of those votes would have been anti-Trudeau votes, the possibility the Carney might appeal to traditional Red Tory voters in the riding, and have made no mention of the elephant in the room, The Mango Mussolini, Donald Trump. Poilievre could (should?) win his own riding, but then again, he should (?) win the election but that is now highly unlikely. And I think you underestimate the Fanjoy factor. He has worked his tail off and Poilievre has been invisible. Finally, I didn't know about the Greely rally as his campaign close, but that is not a good look. With all that, plus your EDIT, I can see why you are now ambivalent.
Well, I do mention a potential “convoy” penalty and recognize Fanjoy’s hard work. I just don’t know if it will be enough to create a swing of 5k votes. And maybe Fanjoy needs a larger swing since the riding has become more rural and all the PPC votes are guaranteed to go to Poilievre.
The Poilievre’s geographic strategy in the final days of the campaign is baffling. What is he doing in Saskatchewan today? He should be doing 3 rallies in Ontario or BC. And on the final day it is time drop the kids off at grandma and do as many stops as you can manage. You want to show that you leave it all out on the field. It looks like they have given up.
I'm next door to you in Nepean. I'm hoping and praying PP loses Carleton, even if (bite my tongue) CPC wins on Monday. We need to put an end to his type of politics. The last election saw a low turnout nationwide, maybe that's where the new numbers will come from. I've already voted for Carney. But my riding is also historically CPC, except the last two terms when Chandra ran. And we saw where that went.
Intending to vote and actually voting are two different things. On E-day I will be a scrutineer for the special election ballots and I am told the turnout was over three times what it was in the last election.
A flood of irregular voters actually voting in this election is going to help the Liberals in unexpected places.
It would be icing on the cake if that results in Poilievre losing his seat!
Pierre has decided to hold a last day rally in his own riding,
The Conservative spin will be this is his closing campaign stop to salute his home riding. It doesn't exactly swat away the stories he's in trouble in his own riding.
Evan - Kory mentioned in today's Curse that the "minority" ridings in GTA always skew towards who is winning govt.
I.e., any gains Poilievre thinks he's made in suburban ON would appear to be overestimated. As much as the Cons are pushing the apocalyptic-crime story, the burbs in GTA and Lower Mainland don't seem to be buying it.
Again, not as scary as Trump.
These ridings, including Carleton, will come down to who is most motivated to vote, fearing either: Trump and Poilievre's extreme conservatism, or a Liberal hellscape.
Maybe a few Canadians will vote FOR confidence and opportunity despite the challenges ahead.
As I said, I would be very happy to see a victorious Bruce Fanjoy Monday evening. But these claims of “help from Calgary” require a little more hard evidence before I believe it.
I am in the Carleton riding. Although I would very much like to see a victorious Bruce Fanjoy on Monday evening, it is hard to find the numbers to support this.
Let’s look at 2021:
CPC: 35k
LPC: 24k
NDP: 8k
PPC: 1.7k votes
What has changed?
Riding became more rural with the boundary changes. Riverside South, part of the riding and more LPC friendly, grew by 4-5000 people. PPC is not running a candidate in 2025. On balance, this is probably a gain for the CPC, but let’s argue it is a wash.
So, Pierre starts with 35k votes and that is probably realistic as the absolute CPC support has actually not changed that much. Therefore the gap is 11k. Now, let’s collapse the NDP vote and allocate 3/4 of this to the LPC. That would be 6k additional orange votes for Bruce. Now the gap is 5k.
To bridge these remaining 5k votes we would have to argue that there are significant local effects. Can we give Bruce a “putting in the hard work” bonus? Can we give Pierre a “convoy” penalty? It is possible, but without an actual local riding poll, we are just speculating.
Now, I have been called twice on the landline for a local riding poll. So, one or both parties are interested enough to see if there is local effect. My two cents, close enough to be concerned, but still very much an uphill battle for Bruce.
EDIT:
I am changing my mind. I suspect that the internal polling shows indeed a neck-to-neck race or even losing race in Carleton. Why? Poilievre is closing his campaign with a rally in Greely at a wedding event centre that can hold a maximum of 400 people. That is not a winning campaign. A winning campaign is flying from East to West, 10 stops along the way, all close ridings. Finishing your campaign with an intimate gathering of your closest friends is throwing in the towel.
EDIT2: Elections Canada has reported the turn out for the advance voting days per riding. 43.400 early votes in Carleton. That is a lot. If the total number of votes is again around 70k, it would mean that over 65% of the people that vote, have already voted. I have a hard time seeing this being a function of enthusiasm for Poilievre.
You've built in an assumption that all those CPC voters will stick with Poilievre. You've completely ignored the possibility that some of those votes would have been anti-Trudeau votes, the possibility the Carney might appeal to traditional Red Tory voters in the riding, and have made no mention of the elephant in the room, The Mango Mussolini, Donald Trump. Poilievre could (should?) win his own riding, but then again, he should (?) win the election but that is now highly unlikely. And I think you underestimate the Fanjoy factor. He has worked his tail off and Poilievre has been invisible. Finally, I didn't know about the Greely rally as his campaign close, but that is not a good look. With all that, plus your EDIT, I can see why you are now ambivalent.
Well, I do mention a potential “convoy” penalty and recognize Fanjoy’s hard work. I just don’t know if it will be enough to create a swing of 5k votes. And maybe Fanjoy needs a larger swing since the riding has become more rural and all the PPC votes are guaranteed to go to Poilievre.
The Poilievre’s geographic strategy in the final days of the campaign is baffling. What is he doing in Saskatchewan today? He should be doing 3 rallies in Ontario or BC. And on the final day it is time drop the kids off at grandma and do as many stops as you can manage. You want to show that you leave it all out on the field. It looks like they have given up.
I'm next door to you in Nepean. I'm hoping and praying PP loses Carleton, even if (bite my tongue) CPC wins on Monday. We need to put an end to his type of politics. The last election saw a low turnout nationwide, maybe that's where the new numbers will come from. I've already voted for Carney. But my riding is also historically CPC, except the last two terms when Chandra ran. And we saw where that went.
Intending to vote and actually voting are two different things. On E-day I will be a scrutineer for the special election ballots and I am told the turnout was over three times what it was in the last election.
A flood of irregular voters actually voting in this election is going to help the Liberals in unexpected places.
It would be icing on the cake if that results in Poilievre losing his seat!
This is exactly what I thought in a purely intuitive way, but thank you for providing actual reasons to back up those intuitions.
Pierre has decided to hold a last day rally in his own riding,
The Conservative spin will be this is his closing campaign stop to salute his home riding. It doesn't exactly swat away the stories he's in trouble in his own riding.
Evan - Kory mentioned in today's Curse that the "minority" ridings in GTA always skew towards who is winning govt.
I.e., any gains Poilievre thinks he's made in suburban ON would appear to be overestimated. As much as the Cons are pushing the apocalyptic-crime story, the burbs in GTA and Lower Mainland don't seem to be buying it.
Again, not as scary as Trump.
These ridings, including Carleton, will come down to who is most motivated to vote, fearing either: Trump and Poilievre's extreme conservatism, or a Liberal hellscape.
Maybe a few Canadians will vote FOR confidence and opportunity despite the challenges ahead.
The icing on the cake if pp looses.
.. ‘Convoying ‘conservative volunteers’ in from the rest of Canada to ‘door knock is a great look.. shock & awe 🦎🏴☠️🚧
A rumour like that is easily started and not necessarily true.
.. it is what it is .. whatever it turns out to be .. is another matter entirely, but that’s beside the point
Rescuing Pierre Poilievre from his personal crusade to historic ‘amplitude just aint on my ‘to do List
Canadians are absorbing Myriad Narratives Daily .. & I always wonder / sometimes in public - Qui Bono ?
As I said, I would be very happy to see a victorious Bruce Fanjoy Monday evening. But these claims of “help from Calgary” require a little more hard evidence before I believe it.
Democrats from the Kamala Harris’ campaign, working for the Liberal party is not a good look either.
Kind of fun to read this column for the first time the day after. Kory’s pockets should be well lined today