Thank you for your discussion on 84 and 93. It's been driving me crazy in certain circles that people act like the boost and then collapse for Turner and Campbell is some law of new party leaders in Canadian politics. Even putting aside the specific circumstances of those races, a sample size of 2 cannot ever create a hard law in the social sciences.
A lot is happening and polls are very volatile so it's hard to say where exactly things are at, but the Tories wouldn't be trying to do a major message reset if their internal polls weren't also showing this big swing. This is a competitive race, and everyone needs to be treating it as such.
It’s nice to see this in black and white! I’m very hopeful. No longer have a sense of dread. have followed Mark Carney at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England. Always hoped Mr . Carney would present himself one day. Mr. Carney is a man of vision and humility. This will give us the best opportunity to keep Trump in check. Mr Carney will make wise informed decisions for Canada and Canadians.
I think it is impossible to claim with certainty that the reversal of the Liberal fortunes is exclusively due to a new leader coming in. Nor is it possible to claim with certainty that this is exclusively due to Trump coming into office. I believe it is both, but my gut feel is that the Trump effect is stronger.
But I will take it either way. Keeping Poilievre out of government is a worthwhile goal, regardless how we get there. Now, the question is, how do we “bring it home”?
I suspect that the supposedly hot mic with Trudeau saying that Trump is after Canada’s resources may have been deliberate. After all, would that not be the perfect ballot question for an election triggered by a confident and newly minted PM Carney in April?
I think the key takeaway for the Liberal party is that Canadian voters are signaling an openness to giving them another chance. Faced with a party that was unresponsive, voters were willing to walk away completely. Now, with a visible signal of change, voters are willing to give them some benefit of doubt
My concern is that instead of using this as the opportunity for policy reset that it is, certain insiders are going to see the higher polling numbers as a cushion to turn Carney’s government into Trudeau 2.0. If they do, what they’ll get is Trudeau polling (and eventually election) results 2.0
Edit: the second biggest story is the complete collapse of the NDP polling. If there’s a broad consensus that they’re simply not viable the Liberals are going to end up winning a bunch of seats that otherwise wouldn’t be in play in a normal ABC voting environment
Thank you for your discussion on 84 and 93. It's been driving me crazy in certain circles that people act like the boost and then collapse for Turner and Campbell is some law of new party leaders in Canadian politics. Even putting aside the specific circumstances of those races, a sample size of 2 cannot ever create a hard law in the social sciences.
A lot is happening and polls are very volatile so it's hard to say where exactly things are at, but the Tories wouldn't be trying to do a major message reset if their internal polls weren't also showing this big swing. This is a competitive race, and everyone needs to be treating it as such.
It’s nice to see this in black and white! I’m very hopeful. No longer have a sense of dread. have followed Mark Carney at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England. Always hoped Mr . Carney would present himself one day. Mr. Carney is a man of vision and humility. This will give us the best opportunity to keep Trump in check. Mr Carney will make wise informed decisions for Canada and Canadians.
I think it is impossible to claim with certainty that the reversal of the Liberal fortunes is exclusively due to a new leader coming in. Nor is it possible to claim with certainty that this is exclusively due to Trump coming into office. I believe it is both, but my gut feel is that the Trump effect is stronger.
But I will take it either way. Keeping Poilievre out of government is a worthwhile goal, regardless how we get there. Now, the question is, how do we “bring it home”?
I suspect that the supposedly hot mic with Trudeau saying that Trump is after Canada’s resources may have been deliberate. After all, would that not be the perfect ballot question for an election triggered by a confident and newly minted PM Carney in April?
Poilievre choosing to focus on fentanyl crime and punishment shows he is failing to read the national room.
It also might mean he's seeing his base bleed in internal polls.
He has always lacked substance and now has few serious ideas to draw upon.
What a perfect alignment of the planets for Carney and the Liberals.
As in 22 Minutes' brilliant sketch: PP can't take off any more glasses!
I think the key takeaway for the Liberal party is that Canadian voters are signaling an openness to giving them another chance. Faced with a party that was unresponsive, voters were willing to walk away completely. Now, with a visible signal of change, voters are willing to give them some benefit of doubt
My concern is that instead of using this as the opportunity for policy reset that it is, certain insiders are going to see the higher polling numbers as a cushion to turn Carney’s government into Trudeau 2.0. If they do, what they’ll get is Trudeau polling (and eventually election) results 2.0
Edit: the second biggest story is the complete collapse of the NDP polling. If there’s a broad consensus that they’re simply not viable the Liberals are going to end up winning a bunch of seats that otherwise wouldn’t be in play in a normal ABC voting environment