I have some worries that an Alberta separatism referendum could end up like Brexit. The attempt by David Cameron to quell leavers by holding a referendum he expected to fail backfired spectacularly when a majority of people actually voted for the stupid option. Mind you Albertan separatism is way less popular than brexit was, and the two Quebec separatism referendums failed so this seems unlikely. Negotiating the separation of Alberta would also be much more arduous than brexit was and it’s possible that it would fall apart at the negotiating table as soon as Albertans realized what concessions the rest of the country would extract and what they’d be losing by separating.
All in all while it does seem very unlikely that Alberta actually separates I worry that Smith is playing with fire here and could burn down Alberta if she isn’t careful.
Your observation of Smith being arsonist is apt. Though she's more likely to set herself on fire than create any bigger fire to consume anything else.
Please keep in mind her separtiste-adjacent sturm und drang is to throw eyes away from the AHS Corruptcare medical procurement scandal enveloping her mendaciously incompetent administration.
As a 75 year old born-here Albertan, I have a warning for Dixie Dani - Alberta separation will not be a peaceful action decided by a vote. No one is taking away my Canadian citizenship!
Language is always NB when discussing W Canada. To be accurate, there is no western separation. Of the 4 provinces that constitute the West, the grumblers are bookended by MB and BC.
I grew up in MB and now live in BC since 2001. Two more patriotic provinces you cannot find.
Evan is bang on about DS' motives. She owes her political life to White Christian Nationalists and Big Oil/Gas.
Ironically, she might find a refuge in the words and actions of the Indigenous leaders of AB. They give her cover for not calling a referendum based on their statements, and focus the blame on them.
Andrew, from here in Alberta I have to question your assertion, "Two more patriotic provinces you cannot find."
My questioning is in respect of BC; I simply do not know Manitoba at all well. My experience with BC (remember, I am an Albertan) is that there is the lower mainland, Victoria and surroundings and "the rest." It is my understanding that your description of the lower mainland and Victoria and surroundings is bang on however it is my further understanding that your description decidedly doesn't cover the rest.
At least, that is my best understanding of matters.
Ken thank you very much for your comment. Our eldest son lives in Calgary and so we have connections if not roots in Alberta. It is true that the lower mainland of British Columbia and the southern part of Vancouver Island have consistently returned NDP or Green candidates to Parliament and to our provincial legislature. And it is true that the rest of the province elects mostly conservatives. The same is true in Manitoba. Winnipeg Is a stronghold for the NDP, and the rest of the province is true blue. The most northern riding has until recently been represented by the NDP. But it is my opinion that the sense of ‘alienation’ in these regions is not the same as what members of the UCP in Alberta express.
One explanation might be that White Christian Nationalism Is not a factor with the possible exception of the area around Abbotsford.
The other factor with Alberta is that the UCP and the Smith regime are beholden to international oil companies, who know no loyalty except to the bottom line.
Smith spoke the truth the other day when she said a referendum might stave off another separatist party. But while her comment sounded like she was protecting the country from even further risk, she was in fact saving her own oil-flavoured bacon from two right of centre parties in the province, thus allowing the NDP to govern once more.
So I stand by my comment. There is no ‘western alienation’, there is only the complaints of a Premier who might be spewing the seperatist nonsense to avoid other scandals in her government. It might work for some Albertans, but I am sure that you can see more clearly than most.
Andrew, you write in part, "... the UCP and the Smith regime are beholden to international oil companies ..." I'm sorry to tell you that the largest oil companies in Canada are all Canadian headquartered and Canadian owned. Them thar evil Yankee oil guys haven't predominated for many years; not since we have been buying them out and sending them back to Arkansas, Texas, etc. some years ago.
Yes, I know that Imperial exists and it is a noticeable player but it is far from the largest player in the oil patch. I can confidently say that the oil patch is predominantly Canadian owned and operated.
I suggest that your comments about Smith and the oil companies smack of Central Canadian stereotypes. Also, to many of us, those sorts of out of touch comments smack of the Central Canadian contempt that we have had to deal with for decades.
As for there being no western alienation, please accept my assurances that it truly does exist. The seriousness of it varies from place to place and person to person, of course, but it does exist.
Further, just thinking of myself, I am 74 years old. In my youth I thought of myself as a Pearsonian Liberal. Then PET arrived and I was flummoxed and found him a curiosity; I watched him for a few years and then watched him attack our industry (that was a decade before the NEP) because, as T1 said clearly, "We can't allow Alberta to get too much power." [Yes, he did say that publicly.] Of course, the next decade he brought in the NEP. After Mulroney took power it took five years to unwind that awful thing. [But the attacks of the 1970s still live on in the tax system, discriminating against Alberta.] I won't go in to the most recent stuff but simply rest assured that there are many of us, young and (like me) old who do feel that Alberta has been and remains under attack.
Oh, and your comment about White Christian Nationalists? I know no one who fits that descriptor; I suggest that you are again dealing in stereotypes. Are there some who fit that stereotype? I am quite certain that there must be; but not in any noticeable quantity.
When I noted that the lower mainland and Victoria, etc. had "different" patterns, what I did not make clear was that much of the interior of BC (i.e. the remainder of that province) is terrifically similar to Alberta in their "opinion" of Otterwer et al.
I offer you, Sir, one final thought that I feel you should consider carefully. There are a number of areas in which we feel strongly that Central and Eastern Canada have chosen to deliberately take advantage of us - and certainly, to sneer at us - and if Carney and his sneak of LPC weasels choose to address those issues seriously and work with us, I expect that the rift might kinda, possibly, maybe, be dealt with. Might. Kinda, possibly, maybe. If, however, Carney and the sneak of weasels [sounds like a boy band from the 1980s, no?] choose to ignore us or to use us as a wedge to build on their support in Central and Eastern Canada then, perhaps you should not be surprised by the result of a vote.
I guess we’ll agree to disagree. I am 72 years old. I have travelled in the rural areas of Alberta and I have liked a lot of the people I have met, until we start to talk politics. And then I hear a lot of complaining. And from people who speak of an Alberta where the bible determines policy, where reconciliation is not an issue, and maybe residential schools weren’t so bad.
And getting back to Northern Vancouver Island, the people up there elected one such a denier named Aaron Gunn, who doesn’t like the world as it has evolved:
Hello Ms. McLean, and congratulations on your election to our Parliament. We were so relieved that the CPC candidate did not win. We do not need Poilievre style politics of division.
The above noted CBC article is very worrisome. Our PM Carney campaigned on a new kind of economic arrangement with the USA and that's one the very reasons he is now our leader.
So how can we let this happen? Although not a student of Petro Politics, this recent report suggests that over 70% of the oil sands extraction is foreign owned.
It is completely not in Canada's interest to allow this to happen.
Please tell me what I can do. And please tell me what you can do.”
——-
Re: Alienation: I was surprised to read this article about various federal programs and support. It seems like a lengthly, but as I can’t do a full comparison cf other provinces, who can say:
Do you really think this talk of seperation is real? I think it’s a wedge. The timing is suspect, Carney gets elected, puts DJT in his place without him even knowing the smackdown, and Smith?…a referendum by necessity but not necessarily a referendum. Let her put the question to the voters. Monday.
Many politicians are entertainers. Smith is at the top of her game.
Please feel free to reply. I will be happy to give you the last word. I am done with this topic however and will be moving on. I think I subscribed to your substacks and so look forward to more discussion with you on other topics. I try to write as much as possible, and my essays are all over the map in terms of topics. You may find them interesting. My latest is about living with pain and traditional models of masculinity.
The Dominion of Canada has continued to promote the myth that "Canada", "Quebec", "Alberta", etc are the names of places (land) when they are only names of settler-colonial governments. These governments don't "own" that land the way loyalists to settler-colonial institutions incorrectly believe they do, and thus even if a provincial government passed the near-impossible barrier of the Clarity Act (which didn't create new policy, only clarified the status-quo), then that only starts the international treaty negotiation process for some new government to have any land base at all.
In reality there IS NO PATH TO SEPARATION that involves retaining land. Without understanding that basic fact, negotiations that separatists want to launch are dangerous for the separatists.
If the Government of Alberta didn't want to exist within the context of the grandfathering of the Dominion of Canada, all that is required is rescinding Alberta Act 1905 and that government ceases to exist. The land is returned to being part of the North West Territories (and covered by the relevant treaties with Canadian Crown and the British Crown to allow settler colonies to continue to exist).
To suggest that Moe hasn't put self interest ahead of Canada is to overlook his own separatist flirtations to quell the Buffalo Party and SUP threats. Otherwise an interesting analysis.
I really appreciate this, as someone who had to negotiate with provincial officials to GIVE THEM EXTRA FUNDING! Hard to believe, eh? But true. Without naming names, one of my colleagues finally had to say to one rep 'okay, if you don't want your fair share of the funds, fine!' They changed their tune pretty quickly after that! Another province took the money, set up the projects to be funded, then had their lawyers try to renegotiate the standard wording of the agreement 🤝 which was a big waste of time. F/P/T relations are no walk in the park.
When your schedule and events allow, I would be interested in getting your take on Nenshi. From a distance he seems to be one of those insufferably arrogant, "I'm the only adult in the room" centrists who are so delightful to have around. Preferable to the separatist petro-loons, I suppose, but just barely.
I disagree with the suggested tactic of meeting Moe's requests but ignoring Smith's. This plays into her accusation that Ottawa is against Alberta, plus will be used to increase the separation support in the Alberta population, which is nowhere near high enough currently to carry a separation referendum.
Evan, as an Albertan, it seems to me that you might consider two points.
First, many of the grievances that we in Alberta hold are often held by Saskatchewan. It follows, therefore, that a settlement of those grievances, even if identified as placating SK, could well be counted as a win here in Alberta.
Second, ignoring the first point, if the goal is to beggar we in Alberta, doesn't that, ummmm..., generate potential succor for the depart side of things?
I offer those aspects as things to consider further.
Rob Lantz is the PEI Premier. He's always been a forgettable political. He just happens to be my parents's MLA. He's just the interm leader for the Conservatives so someone will replace him eventually.
I have some worries that an Alberta separatism referendum could end up like Brexit. The attempt by David Cameron to quell leavers by holding a referendum he expected to fail backfired spectacularly when a majority of people actually voted for the stupid option. Mind you Albertan separatism is way less popular than brexit was, and the two Quebec separatism referendums failed so this seems unlikely. Negotiating the separation of Alberta would also be much more arduous than brexit was and it’s possible that it would fall apart at the negotiating table as soon as Albertans realized what concessions the rest of the country would extract and what they’d be losing by separating.
All in all while it does seem very unlikely that Alberta actually separates I worry that Smith is playing with fire here and could burn down Alberta if she isn’t careful.
Your observation of Smith being arsonist is apt. Though she's more likely to set herself on fire than create any bigger fire to consume anything else.
Please keep in mind her separtiste-adjacent sturm und drang is to throw eyes away from the AHS Corruptcare medical procurement scandal enveloping her mendaciously incompetent administration.
As a 75 year old born-here Albertan, I have a warning for Dixie Dani - Alberta separation will not be a peaceful action decided by a vote. No one is taking away my Canadian citizenship!
Language is always NB when discussing W Canada. To be accurate, there is no western separation. Of the 4 provinces that constitute the West, the grumblers are bookended by MB and BC.
I grew up in MB and now live in BC since 2001. Two more patriotic provinces you cannot find.
Evan is bang on about DS' motives. She owes her political life to White Christian Nationalists and Big Oil/Gas.
Ironically, she might find a refuge in the words and actions of the Indigenous leaders of AB. They give her cover for not calling a referendum based on their statements, and focus the blame on them.
Andrew, from here in Alberta I have to question your assertion, "Two more patriotic provinces you cannot find."
My questioning is in respect of BC; I simply do not know Manitoba at all well. My experience with BC (remember, I am an Albertan) is that there is the lower mainland, Victoria and surroundings and "the rest." It is my understanding that your description of the lower mainland and Victoria and surroundings is bang on however it is my further understanding that your description decidedly doesn't cover the rest.
At least, that is my best understanding of matters.
Ken thank you very much for your comment. Our eldest son lives in Calgary and so we have connections if not roots in Alberta. It is true that the lower mainland of British Columbia and the southern part of Vancouver Island have consistently returned NDP or Green candidates to Parliament and to our provincial legislature. And it is true that the rest of the province elects mostly conservatives. The same is true in Manitoba. Winnipeg Is a stronghold for the NDP, and the rest of the province is true blue. The most northern riding has until recently been represented by the NDP. But it is my opinion that the sense of ‘alienation’ in these regions is not the same as what members of the UCP in Alberta express.
One explanation might be that White Christian Nationalism Is not a factor with the possible exception of the area around Abbotsford.
The other factor with Alberta is that the UCP and the Smith regime are beholden to international oil companies, who know no loyalty except to the bottom line.
Smith spoke the truth the other day when she said a referendum might stave off another separatist party. But while her comment sounded like she was protecting the country from even further risk, she was in fact saving her own oil-flavoured bacon from two right of centre parties in the province, thus allowing the NDP to govern once more.
So I stand by my comment. There is no ‘western alienation’, there is only the complaints of a Premier who might be spewing the seperatist nonsense to avoid other scandals in her government. It might work for some Albertans, but I am sure that you can see more clearly than most.
Andrew, you write in part, "... the UCP and the Smith regime are beholden to international oil companies ..." I'm sorry to tell you that the largest oil companies in Canada are all Canadian headquartered and Canadian owned. Them thar evil Yankee oil guys haven't predominated for many years; not since we have been buying them out and sending them back to Arkansas, Texas, etc. some years ago.
Yes, I know that Imperial exists and it is a noticeable player but it is far from the largest player in the oil patch. I can confidently say that the oil patch is predominantly Canadian owned and operated.
I suggest that your comments about Smith and the oil companies smack of Central Canadian stereotypes. Also, to many of us, those sorts of out of touch comments smack of the Central Canadian contempt that we have had to deal with for decades.
As for there being no western alienation, please accept my assurances that it truly does exist. The seriousness of it varies from place to place and person to person, of course, but it does exist.
Further, just thinking of myself, I am 74 years old. In my youth I thought of myself as a Pearsonian Liberal. Then PET arrived and I was flummoxed and found him a curiosity; I watched him for a few years and then watched him attack our industry (that was a decade before the NEP) because, as T1 said clearly, "We can't allow Alberta to get too much power." [Yes, he did say that publicly.] Of course, the next decade he brought in the NEP. After Mulroney took power it took five years to unwind that awful thing. [But the attacks of the 1970s still live on in the tax system, discriminating against Alberta.] I won't go in to the most recent stuff but simply rest assured that there are many of us, young and (like me) old who do feel that Alberta has been and remains under attack.
Oh, and your comment about White Christian Nationalists? I know no one who fits that descriptor; I suggest that you are again dealing in stereotypes. Are there some who fit that stereotype? I am quite certain that there must be; but not in any noticeable quantity.
When I noted that the lower mainland and Victoria, etc. had "different" patterns, what I did not make clear was that much of the interior of BC (i.e. the remainder of that province) is terrifically similar to Alberta in their "opinion" of Otterwer et al.
I offer you, Sir, one final thought that I feel you should consider carefully. There are a number of areas in which we feel strongly that Central and Eastern Canada have chosen to deliberately take advantage of us - and certainly, to sneer at us - and if Carney and his sneak of LPC weasels choose to address those issues seriously and work with us, I expect that the rift might kinda, possibly, maybe, be dealt with. Might. Kinda, possibly, maybe. If, however, Carney and the sneak of weasels [sounds like a boy band from the 1980s, no?] choose to ignore us or to use us as a wedge to build on their support in Central and Eastern Canada then, perhaps you should not be surprised by the result of a vote.
I guess we’ll agree to disagree. I am 72 years old. I have travelled in the rural areas of Alberta and I have liked a lot of the people I have met, until we start to talk politics. And then I hear a lot of complaining. And from people who speak of an Alberta where the bible determines policy, where reconciliation is not an issue, and maybe residential schools weren’t so bad.
And getting back to Northern Vancouver Island, the people up there elected one such a denier named Aaron Gunn, who doesn’t like the world as it has evolved:
https://victoriabuzz.com/2025/04/vancouver-island-conservative-candidates-social-media-posts-continue-to-raise-concerns/
———-
Re: ownership of the oil patch: This is a copy of the letter I wrote to our new MP, who once was a NDP Cabinet minister in the Notley government:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/dissident-to-fight-board-vote-delay-in-court-after-parkland-sunoco-ink-9-1b-us-deal-1.7526406
Hello Ms. McLean, and congratulations on your election to our Parliament. We were so relieved that the CPC candidate did not win. We do not need Poilievre style politics of division.
The above noted CBC article is very worrisome. Our PM Carney campaigned on a new kind of economic arrangement with the USA and that's one the very reasons he is now our leader.
So how can we let this happen? Although not a student of Petro Politics, this recent report suggests that over 70% of the oil sands extraction is foreign owned.
https://stand.earth/resources/who-benefits-an-investigation-of-foreign-ownership-in-the-oil-sands/#:~:text=Findings%20reveal%20that%20more%20than,and%20shareholders%20outside%20Canada's%20borders.
https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/august-2023/foreign-oil-companies/
It is completely not in Canada's interest to allow this to happen.
Please tell me what I can do. And please tell me what you can do.”
——-
Re: Alienation: I was surprised to read this article about various federal programs and support. It seems like a lengthly, but as I can’t do a full comparison cf other provinces, who can say:
https://substack.com/inbox/post/162169044?r=33x0d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false&triedRedirect=true
_______
Do you really think this talk of seperation is real? I think it’s a wedge. The timing is suspect, Carney gets elected, puts DJT in his place without him even knowing the smackdown, and Smith?…a referendum by necessity but not necessarily a referendum. Let her put the question to the voters. Monday.
Many politicians are entertainers. Smith is at the top of her game.
Please feel free to reply. I will be happy to give you the last word. I am done with this topic however and will be moving on. I think I subscribed to your substacks and so look forward to more discussion with you on other topics. I try to write as much as possible, and my essays are all over the map in terms of topics. You may find them interesting. My latest is about living with pain and traditional models of masculinity.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-163248551
The Dominion of Canada has continued to promote the myth that "Canada", "Quebec", "Alberta", etc are the names of places (land) when they are only names of settler-colonial governments. These governments don't "own" that land the way loyalists to settler-colonial institutions incorrectly believe they do, and thus even if a provincial government passed the near-impossible barrier of the Clarity Act (which didn't create new policy, only clarified the status-quo), then that only starts the international treaty negotiation process for some new government to have any land base at all.
In reality there IS NO PATH TO SEPARATION that involves retaining land. Without understanding that basic fact, negotiations that separatists want to launch are dangerous for the separatists.
If the Government of Alberta didn't want to exist within the context of the grandfathering of the Dominion of Canada, all that is required is rescinding Alberta Act 1905 and that government ceases to exist. The land is returned to being part of the North West Territories (and covered by the relevant treaties with Canadian Crown and the British Crown to allow settler colonies to continue to exist).
https://substack.com/@russellmcormond/note/c-115778444
To suggest that Moe hasn't put self interest ahead of Canada is to overlook his own separatist flirtations to quell the Buffalo Party and SUP threats. Otherwise an interesting analysis.
Nice bit of realpolitik. Thank you Sir!
Extremely perceptive analysis.
I really appreciate this, as someone who had to negotiate with provincial officials to GIVE THEM EXTRA FUNDING! Hard to believe, eh? But true. Without naming names, one of my colleagues finally had to say to one rep 'okay, if you don't want your fair share of the funds, fine!' They changed their tune pretty quickly after that! Another province took the money, set up the projects to be funded, then had their lawyers try to renegotiate the standard wording of the agreement 🤝 which was a big waste of time. F/P/T relations are no walk in the park.
Evan:
When your schedule and events allow, I would be interested in getting your take on Nenshi. From a distance he seems to be one of those insufferably arrogant, "I'm the only adult in the room" centrists who are so delightful to have around. Preferable to the separatist petro-loons, I suppose, but just barely.
I disagree with the suggested tactic of meeting Moe's requests but ignoring Smith's. This plays into her accusation that Ottawa is against Alberta, plus will be used to increase the separation support in the Alberta population, which is nowhere near high enough currently to carry a separation referendum.
Evan, as an Albertan, it seems to me that you might consider two points.
First, many of the grievances that we in Alberta hold are often held by Saskatchewan. It follows, therefore, that a settlement of those grievances, even if identified as placating SK, could well be counted as a win here in Alberta.
Second, ignoring the first point, if the goal is to beggar we in Alberta, doesn't that, ummmm..., generate potential succor for the depart side of things?
I offer those aspects as things to consider further.
Rob Lantz is the PEI Premier. He's always been a forgettable political. He just happens to be my parents's MLA. He's just the interm leader for the Conservatives so someone will replace him eventually.