Lessons From 2024

Year In Review, But Different

Usually I do this as a year in review of my work and of this site, but frankly I don’t think it’s necessary or worthwhile. I was low on Trump’s chances in the general, but correctly understood that he was never nearly as unlikely as he seemed. If you’d like to get particularly animated by the fact that I had Harris narrowly winning when she narrowly lost, that’s your right. I never particularly felt like I had a great grasp on the Presidential race, which is why I wrote about it so little for this site and even when I wrote about it for a former place of employment I was substantially less cocky than in the past.

The other big electoral events I actually covered would have been St. Paul’s and LaSalle, the two byelections won by the Conservatives and Bloc respectively. It was good to get it right in both cases the Liberals would lose, though I don’t particularly think either was that impressive. Oh, it’s worth pointing out I was correct this whole time that David Eby was in more trouble than people understood, I guess. The reason I’m rushing through the year in review stuff is that most of what this site became this year was less prediction and more advocacy, advocacy for a party and for a set of values. And that’s a change, and doing a year in review of predictions when it took up such a small share of the year is laughable.

Far more interestingly would be the lessons learned from this year - one where I started thinking Trudeau could turn the ship around and one that is ending with me doing everything in my extremely limited capacity to push him out of the Prime Ministership. There are a bunch of things learned, some that I probably could and should have known before this year and some others that only this specific year of insanity could have taught or reinforced.

But before I get into it, I do want to say an immense note of gratitude to all of my readers. It’s an honour to get to write for so many of you, and shocking that all of you care what I have to say at all. Whether you’ve read one piece or read everything, I’m honoured, grateful, and beyond motivated to continue this. The idea something I write here can matter is … it’s everything I could have ever asked for. Thank you, so much.

Now, onto the lessons of the year!

The Anti-Incumbent Wave Is Real (But Might Not Last)

A lot of people have latched onto the wave of anti-incumbency sentiments in the post-COVID world to explain the success of Trump and to give cover to Kamala Harris’ efforts to stop him, and it’s definitely true. Three of four provincial elections this year saw governments go backwards and lose seats, the UK Tories got smashed, the French left won the most votes in their legislative elections, and Australian Labor is struggling in the polls. It’s a compelling argument.

It’s also not a great argument that it will continue. Yes, Trudeau or whoever else will get smashed next year, nobody’s claiming otherwise. But I think a lot of the supposed inevitabilities that we’re seeing now from some corners - either Democrats in the wilderness for a while or that the GOP will face a huge backlash as they actually govern, depending on the optimism level of the predictor - are overconfident. I think those celebrating Keir Starmer’s terrible approvals are making a key mistake, and I’d bet that Starmer wins another majority in 2028/9. I’d also bet on Albo winning roughly the same 2PP as last time down under as well.

It seems likely the global anti-incumbency wave is true, to the extent that it’s happened enough places with governments of different ages and different underlying popularities pre-2022. But I think, like my overcorrect Global Fucking Realignment, something can be descriptive of what has happened and be limited in its utility moving forward. In the way that I have made mistakes assuming the suburbs would continue their slow march left, it’s possible that defaulting to incumbent governments losing as a matter of course will be similarly flawed.

English Canada Has A Quebec Understanding Problem

The PQ are leading in basically every poll of Quebec politics, the Liberals seem like they might have a chance to revive somewhat, the CAQ are flopping around like a fish out of water, and every poll ends with a seat projection that looks like a random number generator. (This is not a slight on anybody actually doing Quebec projection, but it looks goofy as hell.) And yet, it feels like nobody in English Canada particularly understands why this is happening or cares?

One of my goals for 2025 is to try and be more of a bridge to explain Quebec to English Canada, but part of that is putting in the work that plainly 2024 me didn’t have the time or mental capacity to do right. Explaining Quebec is half science and half art, and there’s a messiness and a verve and a je ne sais quoi to Quebec that is both hard to get right but also endlessly beautiful. I am endlessly romantic about Montreal and Quebec, and that won’t stop, but I’m also fascinated by the place where political loyalty goes to die so often. And 2025 and 2026 will be fascinating.

I’ve written about this many times, but the Bloc of 2025 isn’t the Bloc of 1993, or even of 2008. Back then the Bloc was a separatist party, yes, but it was also a clearing house for left wing values. Duceppe was a lefty who could make the case against Harper better than Dion or Iggy routinely. Now the Bloc is a much different party, a more culturally conservative party, one less committed to independence but much more in the declinist tradition of the ADQ and the CAQ than their old role as informal federal wing of the PQ.

What that turns into in 2025 with a resurgent PQ matters. Will Blanchet use the PQ rise as a chance to pivot the party back towards them, and towards independence, or will he stick to a more pragmatic Defenders Of Quebec In Ottawa policy that can bridge the votes of CAQ and PQ voters? If he moves, could the Conservatives win 30% of the vote in Quebec and truly contend? Could such a pivot revive the Liberals in Quebec, especially with a new leader? Will PQ voters leave the Bloc if they don’t take a harder sovereignist line? It’s all fascinating, and completely undiscussed in the English media. I really hope that changes.

The Liberal Party Needs Substantial Reform

This is fairly obvious, but it’s really not saying a lot of good things about the party that one of the leading advocates for the party to both save itself electorally and in terms of trying to pitch ideas to the party is me. It’s bad, and it’s a clear sign of the vacuousness of the party under Trudeau. The party needs root and branch reform of its institutions under a new leader to make sure this cannot happen again, but it also needs a new generation of leaders at all levels who were clearly and articulately on the right side of this disaster and who have shown themselves to step up when the party needed them. There are caucus members and staffers who have acquitted themselves well this year, and they need a significantly greater role in the party in a post-election world than they do now. I hope they’re given those.

This could be its own point but I have a lot to cover, so let’s do this here; it’s also a very bad sign when elites bunker themselves from criticism. Both the futures of the Liberal Party and the Democratic Party would be better today if the salient voices that events proved right were listened to when they first raised concerns. The Liberal Party would be better off if they had listened to me in June and forced the PM out over the summer. The Democratic Party would have been better off if Biden had not run again in 2024, or dropped out in February when his polls were bad, or even if he had dropped within a week of the debate. Party elites in both cases dismissed clear evidence of a crisis and tried to bury their heads in the sand, only to reach the inevitable conclusion months later. Let's skip the waiting next time.

There’s Never Been Less Punishment For Changing Your Mind

This is less of a political opinion and more of a political media one but people really do not hold changing your mind and admitting you were wrong against you in the way they used to. If this were a decade ago, all of my terrible 2022 and early 2023 takes about how Poilievre would never win would be used against me on a near constant basis. Now, having repented for those takes last year, nobody really cares.

The same thing is true about the Liberal leadership. I though Trudeau should stay far longer than many and far longer than I should have, in hindsight, but nobody will care. The glorious day we are freed from the grip of that man will be a day where I am deemed victorious, and the fact that it took me until he lost St. Paul’s to get on the Dump Justin bandwagon won’t matter.

I actually genuinely think this is good, too. People are going to be wrong about shit, and if you incentivize people to admit when they’re wrong, admit why they’re wrong, and show their work by not holding dumb and bad takes over them like the sword of Damocles, you get better work. What we don’t want is a media and information ecosystem where everybody feels like once they’ve staked a position on an issue they can’t walk it back or admit they were wrong. Things change, and it’s very good that we’re starting to let people admit they fucked up a call or a take or a prediction without feeling the need to murder them for it. And yes, when Conservatives inevitably fall into my trap and misread the electorate on Ford in four years or Skippy in 8 to 12, I’ll need to heed these words.

The Old Rules Of Politics Are Dying

This one I’ve already known for years, but I do think it’s worth reiterating. Pierre Poilievre isn’t just going to win a landslide, but he’s going to do so without Quebec. He’s going to do so by being the first Conservative to ever truly break into some places, like Northern Ontario or parts of Vancouver Island and the BC coast. Traditionally NDP areas are going to get wiped out here, even as the Tories don’t break into a majority of the seats in Quebec. As a % of seats in the other 9 provinces, if Trudeau keeps the leadership I’d bet the Conservatives do better in English Canada than Dief or Mulroney in their landslides. But it’s not just Poilievre.

There is all this conventional wisdom floating around - you can’t change a Democratic nominee in July, you can’t get rid of Trudeau so close to an election, that the decision of BC United to merge would help the BC Cons, that Pierre Poilievre would never be able to win St. Paul’s, etc etc - that has turned out to be true. We live in a volatile time and political loyalties are lowest than they’ve ever been. The definition of what is and isn’t possible has never been wider, and that goes both ways - Poilievre really, genuinely can win this election with the insane landslides and 47% of the vote he’s currently polling no matter how many anecdotes you hear, but also a leadership change could matter. Uncertainty and an open mind is key.

I’ve Truly Got The Best Readers

This one is self-explanatory, really. Y’all are the best. Happy New Year’s, and may all of your 2025s be blessed with glory.