Liberals In Crisis LiveBlog: Freeland Resigns

On The Ongoing Crisis

(It will be functionally impossible to write columns about the events of today and this week in a normal manner, so in the spirit of old school blogs, we’re breaking out a live blog. This piece will be updated, with time stamps, whenever there is either news to commentate on or to annotate. The Fall Economic Statement, if it happens, will be live blogged here. This may be a disastrous idea but I want to have some fun in the midst of chaos. Keep this open and follow my social media to know when I update - plenty of intel will be dropped if and when I have any. Updates will flow bottom to top, when added. Also if you want to support my work consider a paid subscription. This work will always remain free but it’s a way to support my work if you can afford it.)

6:46 PM: This looks like it for the night - the message from tonight seems to be that this is still an open issue. Two ministers spoke to reporters tonight and the Whip did as well and none of them made the point that the PM is solid in the job as Leader of the Liberal Party. James Maloney, Chair of the Ontario caucus, said the PM said he’d meet with people at the Laurier Club tonight and then at the Christmas Party tomorrow. Trudeau isn’t resigning tonight, but it also looks like caucus hasn’t actually backed the PM.

This timeline makes sense with what I’ve heard privately from caucus members in the past, and Paul Wells has always pointed out that the winter break has been a time when leaders have left office - Lucien Bouchard is the most prominent one to announce his resignation in the winter holiday - but the Prime Minister still needs to go. There’s nothing to do here except get rid of the PM. He needs to fuck off.

The fact that the PM couldn’t get past this issue is a blow to him, and he is probably terminally wounded. The only question is when he acknowledges it.

Save us all.

6:22 PM: Rosemary Barton has two bits of intelligence from inside the room - that the Prime Minister is going to “take the holiday” to “consider his options”, and that Trudeau has implied/suggested that Freeland’s account of her resignation isn’t fully accurate. If Caucus lets him off the hook they’re all cowards. Also, calling Freeland a liar is a choice.

Also, Rosemary implied that Carney isn’t taking a job, which we all know already.

6:16 PM: We’re just waiting for news out of Caucus at this point - as soon as we know it’ll break, but right now, everyone who knows anything is in one room.

5:43 PM: Trudeau is currently speaking to the caucus - we can’t hear what he is saying but there is B-roll of him speaking to the caucus playing on the CBC right now. The question is whether the majority of caucus will stand their ground. We’re waiting for more news, but Yvonne Jones and David McGuinty both scrummed on route to caucus and refused to stand by the PM in the way you’d think they would. It’s a fluid situation.

5:18 PM: David Cochrane has gotten an update for us - LeBlanc is temporarily Public Safety Minister but will give that up in a new shuffle (if Trudeau gets to make one). The CBC is also reporting Chrystia Freeland got a standing ovation when she walked into Caucus tonight.

Not exactly an auspicious sign for Trudeau!

5:10 PM: Am I wrong or does Canada not have a Minister of Public Safety right now? Dominic LeBlanc didn’t re-swear to the job when he swore his oath and he has suggested that he will “support” the people who worked at Public Safety in his new role. And, of course, nobody new has been sworn into the job.

As I was about to update this a reporter asked LeBlanc about this - it seems like he might still have Public Safety? He’s suggesting he is and isn’t at different times in this presser.

This is a clusterfuck.

4:55 PM: Dominic LeBlanc is now the Finance Minister, the Liberal Caucus meeting is starting in 5, rumours are flying about just how many people are opposed to him but it seems pretty clear that there is a backbench majority for a change. Whether the cabinet will step up here is very clearly the most important question.

Putting my cards on the table, I don’t see how the PM survives this caucus meeting. Every lesson of political history - here, in the UK, in Australia, and in the US too - says that once you hit the rubicon you can’t walk back. This feels like the end. I could be wrong, but this feels like the end.

4:42 PM: David Cochrane is reporting on CBC that the number of rebels has “doubled” since the October meeting - which means 60+, which is now a majority of the non-Cabinet caucus assuming that none of the rebels putting their name on it are in Cabinet. If there are a few Ministers this is looking close to half of the Caucus. If this is the dam breaking, it could move fast.

4:30 PM: Let’s take the hour before the Caucus meeting to do a hard reset on why we’re here. The Winter and Spring of 2023 saw the government fight through severe issues of Foreign Interference, allegations both credible and not, and somehow stay strikingly resilient in the polls. The June 2023 byelections showed an average swing to the Liberals in the three classic contests (ignoring the CPC-PPC battle in Portage), and things seemed like they had survived the worst. And then the polls collapsed.

It’s never really made sense why it did, but July 2023 saw the march towards this start. Housing sprinted up the priority list of issues, the Liberal vote share went down, the Conservative lead expanded, and we all panicked. I defended Trudeau for a while, the polls never got better, we waited for the Liberals to show they had a fight back in them. We wanted Poilievre’s various foibles to destroy him, and it didn’t.

The calendar flipped over to 2024, the polls didn’t get any better. The Budget was a big spending policy giveaway to everybody and didn’t do fuck all to make them more popular. The Liberals lost the St. Paul’s byelection in June and then fucked off for the summer. They then lost the LaSalle byelection and wasted a month. The caucus met and refused to stand up for the party and country in October, and then we wasted another two months and now we’re here.

This is the PM’s legacy. This is his failure. The Liberals are currently more likely to come in fourth at the next election than 2nd, let alone first. He needs to go. His legacy will be the destruction of the Liberal Party. And he needs to know that this is his fault and the fault of the people who are enabling his narcissism.

3:42 PM: The Fall Statement is being tabled, but there won’t be a speech, at 4PM while LeBlanc is sworn in. We’re waiting to see if the PM pulls off a mini shuffle at the same time as swearing in LeBlanc, given that LeBlanc would be the second Minister double jobbing key portfolios (Anita Anand currently has Treasury Board and Transport). Presumably LeBlanc can hold two portfolios till Wednesday, but that relies on the PM getting to then still in the job.

The other big question is the existing Cabinet. If another Minister resigns, or even threatens to do so at the 5PM Caucus meeting, it’s entirely possible that could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. I have no sourcing on what I’m about to write but it seems clear to me that the caucus meeting is to some degree make or break. If the PM gets through the end of this sitting week in the job he will survive. This caucus meeting is possibly the last moment to force the PM’s hand. I’m not saying this to say the PM is untouchable if he’s not out by 6PM but if caucus fails to rise to the moment they all deserve to lose their seats.

3:14 PM: QP is over, we still have no idea who will be delivering the Fall Economic Statement in less than an hour, we have no idea where the PM is currently, and there is not any useful intelligence on what is happening. David Cochrane has reported that there will be a Caucus meeting at 5PM, so, caucus better do their jobs there.

Radio-Canada is reporting Dominic LeBlanc is the new Finance Minister, about to be sworn in at 4PM. That said, to any caucus members reading this; keeping the Prime Minister is not in the national interest. You swore an oath not to Justin Trudeau or Katie Telford or anybody else, you swore an oath to Crown and Country. You know this is not right for this country. Save us. You have the power. Do it, or you’ll wear every crisis after this.

2:42 PM: Apparently the PM’s offer to Freeland was a Minister for Canada-US Relations without control of a Ministry - the kind of job I proposed to give to Charles Sousa in a column last month - but to Chrystia Freeland. Somehow people believed she’d hear that offer and still give the Fiscal Statement. If that isn’t a metaphor for the current state of the isolated PMO, I don’t know what is.

Also Mark Carney has had two sources leak that he won’t take the Finance gig. I am utterly and completely shocked, shocked by this breaking news.

2:26 PM: The PM hasn’t shown up for Question Period, and the beginning of Question Period means nothing will happen for the next 40 minutes. If there’s an announcement it would be after QP.

In other news Jagmeet Singh has said he wants Trudeau to resign, but refused to say he’d vote non-confidence and said all options are on the table. So, basically, we’re in a holding pattern.

2:06 PM: There is allegedly an announcement coming - people said 2PM but it’s most likely to be before Question Period if it comes. Some people claim it’s a resignation, some that he will prorogue, and nobody knows what it’ll be. Cabinet left without anybody saying whether they would be supporting the PM, or that he’d be staying. It’s all a mess right now, but it could happen any minute.

1:34 PM: Trudeau is now considering his resignation, per CTV. The plan, such as their small update conveys anything, would be a speech to Parliament and a potential prorogation. Now, the prorogation seems like it would be messy - supply hasn’t gotten royal assent, which means he can’t go to the Governor General until it has, but the Senate should pass it this week. This is the most credible reporting we have yet that Trudeau could actually go.

From here, a 10 week leadership race would be possible, with the new leader picked by March Break. Candidates needing to be announced by the 13th of January, Membership cutoff at around Valentines Day, a month to campaign after. It would be faster than many recent contests but the Ontario PCs managed to do a sub 2 month timeline in 2018 from Brown resignation to Doug Ford. It’s absolutely possible.

On the necessity of doing so … I certainly agree, but that’s not new. All I’ll say is people previously described to me and in the press as Cabinet loyalists have moved to more anti-Trudeau positions today.

1:20 PM: So, this has been fun?

What we know for sure is that Chrystia Freeland has resigned in an astonishing rebuke of the PM, characterizing him as wanting “political gimmicks” that she couldn’t support, confirming that she was told Friday he didn’t want her as Finance Minister anymore, and signalling that she will stay in and run again for her Toronto area seat at the election. This is a huge problem for the Prime Minister, who now needs a Finance Minister.

It is rumoured that two more Ministers are going to resign today, though the names are shaky. I’ve heard various names, though I won’t bother communicating them - it’s speculation and I don’t like passing along speculation unless I know it’s true. (Yes, I did know what I was talking about on Freeland and all of you who accused me of believing nonsense owe me an apology, but whatever.) The other main source of intrigue at this point is the Fall Economic Statement, which should allegedly be presented in just under 3 hours. By the Standing Orders, Francois Philippe Champagne is the acting Finance Minister, but the rumour is he won’t read the statement.

A Hamilton MP who privately supported Trudeau’s ouster in October has now publicly added his name to those who have called for his resignation. Whether anybody else will is unclear.

What is even more unclear is whether the PM is listening to any of this. The party is clearly divided, there are many people who are distraught by this news, and the PM’s authority is at an all time low. There is a Byelection the PM is going to lose tonight as well, and a dinner of big donors. The pressure on him is immense, and the question now is whether anybody has the courage to depose him. Trudeau is not acting in the country’s interest, and his continued leadership isn’t in the Liberals’ interest. This country needs better. The only question is whether the LPC can force Trudeau to give us what we deserve.

Mechanically, I don’t know whether the House can force a non-confidence vote before the sitting ends, but the Conservatives, per sources, are open to all options. They’re at least claiming to be ready for an election right now, though I feel confident saying they’d much rather a late January or early February election call and a March Election Day than this. Neither party is particularly ready for an election now, and running 100+ nominations in the midst of Christmas sounds like hell.

Anthony Housefather has also written to the Liberal Caucus Chair asking for a caucus meeting in the next 24 hours, which will be interesting to see whether the Chair agrees. If Housefather’s letter has other supporters in Caucus, it’s possible that this is a mechanism to dethrone Trudeau.

More coming!