9 Comments

freeland resigning right now and in the manner she did makes sense if they think the way to salvage the party is by having her

a) actively rebuke JT and suggest a "rift"

b) take over as a "different" leader than the one hand picked by Trudeau as his deputy (a slight twist on biden to harris)

c) take the fall in the next election - she clearly admits that they are going to lose the government in her letter - but in a manner that at least prevents them from being relegated to third or even fourth party status, allowing for a full proper transition and refresh to the next leader

all of this will require full buy in from the majority of liberal leadership, explicitly including trudeau

if this is all truly just an isolated play, the liberals are even more fucked than they were last week, which is a wild, wild thought

Expand full comment

Well Evan, you were right and I was wrong. Apologies.

While the Globe and Mail article had all the hallmarks of a Fife torqued article, clearly the Trudeau and the PMO as so far disconnected from reality and basic understanding of human nature that they thought forcing Freeland into a different role was going to fly. I thought they would not be that stupid, but clearly I was wrong; they are that stupid.

It is one thing to dispatch ministers like Garneau and Lametti without much explanation, dispatching your minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister (Freeland’s letter does not address this aspect) is a completely different situation. And I am glad Freeland beat them to the punch.

Expand full comment

Is it at all possible they are not that stupid?

Serious question. I'm wondering if this mitigates the worst possible outcome for the LPC.

Expand full comment

In our political system, cabinet minister have limited power, but they do have a nuclear weapon. A letter of resignation can have a powerful effect. And this what we are seeing today.

Now, regular ministers may only be able to limited damage, a deputy prime minister can do massive damage. Freeland’s letter blows up the last bit of legitimacy that Trudeau had. And for what? Carney was not going to take the job. There is no obvious candidate in caucus. How is Trudeau or the LPC better off with cabinet fractured?

And this is what is coming next. Other ministers are going to make the calculation, do I want to stay in cabinet when loyalty means nothing? Do I want to do a leadership run? Do I have a better chance for re-election outside cabinet? Do I want to be part of this clusterfuck?

So, yes it was stupid. If Trudeau truly believed that a new finance minister was needed, the he should only have “offered” Freeland a different role after he had fired her and replaced her with a different person. Maybe Freeland would have refused the new role, but that is an outcome that could have been okay. Now he has no financial minister and his number 2 is out of cabinet.

Expand full comment

Thanks for the thoughtful response. Let me be annoying and explain what I was thinking, after the fact.

By "worst possible outcome," I mean landing behind the NDP in the upcoming election. Would a good way to avoid this be to publicly divorce the party from an albatross of a PM? Maybe a *temporarily* fractured cabinet is better than one that appears weak and forcibly united behind Trudeau?

So, while the PMO 100% looks really stupid right now, is there another insider LPC group capable of influencing the PMO to shuffle Freeland, knowing this would happen, in a bid to show Canadians the LPC does not equal Trudeau?

I'm having fun. I have no idea.

Expand full comment
12hEdited

Well, the Liberal caucus has a nuclear option as well. They (or a small portion) can vote against the government at the next confidence vote. There is nothing that would stop them.

It is high stakes, but if you are likely not going to keep your seat, why wouldn’t you give Trudeau an ultimatum? The ultimatum would be resign as PM, appoint temporary PM and run leadership race in the next 10 weeks.

Expand full comment

Just F5-ing my life away here

Expand full comment

I'd really like to know who's advising the PM, because whoever it is, has done a stellar job... of dropping turds. In what universe did the PM believe, even for a second, that offering CF a make believe job would ever lead to anything other than her setting the entire house on fire? It's remarkable. Remarkable.

Expand full comment

H, your question implies that the Face Painter and/or his advisers had actually given the action any thought.

Instead, I suspect that this latest action by the Crime Minister was simply like much else (think the GST "holiday," the $250, so many other policies, etc.): make it up as it occurs to you and announce it before any rational thoughtful analysis is done.

Expand full comment