I believe that the Liberals are quite pleased with the kind of opposition their are facing. Jagmeet Singh as the useful idiot and Poilievre as mister uber-unlikeable with the people he needs to vote for him. However, this level of confidence can also be dangerous as there is not a lot of room for error (imagine a passport type debacle during an election period).
So far Poilievre seems to have the most success with attacking the government for issues that are predominantly provincial (housing, healthcare, education). The federal government cannot counter that with “no our jurisdiction”, as this is uncaring look.
Personally I think this gives the Liberals a massive opening to put a bold agenda on the table that intrudes massively on provincial responsibilities. I could see a massive housing plan that builds starting homes and apartments with rent to buy options. I could see healthcare mandates demanding provinces hire doctors so that at least 95% of Canadians have a family doctor. Poilievre has given Trudeau the political cover to step on provincial responsibilities and provide the voters a reason why they deserve another term (as opposed to Poilievre providing reason not to vote for him).
Except that I’ve never gotten the sense that the Liberals *want* to get deeply into provincial issues. They, like most everyone else, obviously wish the provincial governments would pull their heads out and do their jobs, but that’s not the same thing as being eager to do it for them.
The Liberals obviously still need a more nuanced and better communicated response than “not our jurisdiction”.
Two years ago I would have agreed with you, but I think the situation has changed. I agree it is not without risk, but I believe it is worth it for three reasons.
First, it neuters the stuff that Poilievre is trying to sell. Housing and healthcare are real concerns, and while the plan does not need to be perfect, the Liberals need to be seen as engaged on these topics.
Second, the Liberals need one or two big items that people can vote for. They have implemented most of the things they want to implement in the past 8 years, what is the reason to be in power for another couple of years? It cannot be more of the same.
Finally, most of the provinces are led by conservative premiers. The implicit or explicit message can be: if let the conservatives get to power, everything goes down the drain. In 2015 we stepped in to fix the mess of Harper, now we have to fix the mess of conservative premiers. Or in other words, if Poilievre wants it to be a federal election about provincial issues, we are happy to make it an election about Doug Ford and Francois Legault.
Trudeau has been hesitant at best to play in the Premiers’ sandboxes. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but the strategy would be a far more openly adversarial, even if polite, approach to the provinces.
They had a bit of that with the subsidized daycare, but the Feds treaded noticeably lightly. I’d go so far as to say they went out of their way to avoid scoring points off of provincial conservatives.
If he goes there it will represent a fairly fundamental shift to their approach to governing.
My gut feel is that the Liberals need something big to make the case why they want another term. And I don’t know what that could be if housing and healthcare are off the table.
Some may say climate change, but I think that would be a mistake. Canadians want to do something about climate change, but I don’t think it is an election winner as Canada is not going to solve this alone. Defense? Never has been an election winner either. Balancing the budget a la Harper? Not moving the needle either.
Of course something might happen that throws all of this by the wayside, but I think the raison d’être for next Trudeau government has to be healthcare and housing if it wants to govern another 4 years.
I think you have that exactly right. Other issues can get them elected, and Canadians will give them a free hand on climate change. But climate change is not a path to reelection
“Poilievre’s unable to make any strategic planning last”
It’s the populist’s curse. When your leadership is just running to the front of where the parade was already heading, you don’t get to pick the direction. Once you’re there you can make any pronouncements you want, but the reality is that when the parade turns behind you, you’re the one who needs to scramble to stay at the front.
He’s got his finger on the pulse of the outrage convoy, but it’s a one way communication. He lacks both the moral authority and the communications infrastructure and relationships that would be necessary to actually effect changes of trajectory.
Do not under estimate the dislike for JT. He was ,what was needed to bring the liberals back from the grave but now is their biggest liability. He needs to hand the reigns to Chrystia Freeland, but won't, because of ego... so.... unfortunately we probably move right.
Do you actually ‘believe’ that the CPC Machine, Pierre Poilievre & Partisan Media & Yellow ‘Journalism’ is not the biggest ‘liability or threat’ to Canadian Governance by Trudeau & our current Government ? Consider how relentless their joint Savage Attacks on Mr David Johnston were ! Daily Insult, demeaning, malicious & malignant distortions, innuendo, lies.. ‘The Scenario’ they would trumpet is ‘Trudeau panics & runs, abandoning ‘poor’ Ms conflicted Freeland to a fruitless & historic & Crushing Election Loss to a Far Superior Man like Pierre Poilievre.. who’s time is NOW !’
I like this post even better - after reading the comments ! But wanna point out what ‘we’ seem to have missed or left out of the analysis.. so here’s the hilights of this dangerous phenomena ! Firstly - OUR PERCEPTIONS ? Where (whom) are the collective ‘we’ getting or evolving Our Perceptions From ?
Yes.. this always brings me back (as always) to MEDIA - Do I ? We ? Trust ‘our’ Media ? Next question - Do ‘we’ even recognize Propaganda (in all its shapes, forms, tactics, tools, techniques) when we are the ‘targets’ ? Do ‘we’ recognize Ongoing Influence Campaigns ? Do we recognize ‘blunt trauma’ or ‘wear down’ from endlessly applied ‘Daily Lies & Deception’ ?
Sometimes ‘accurate analysis’ is simply not always - going to ‘ring the fire alarm’ for us - we may need stunning Analogies or brilliant Metaphor. This is why I harp on the obvious Analogy of Parasites ! I’ve been stung by bees, literally hundreds of times -- eeow ! But that’s hardly the ‘EEOWW of finding a Blood Sucker on my neck after swimming in Lake Simcoe ! Have you ever met or had to shoot a Rabid Wild Dog ? How to you feel about Lamprey Eels where your children or lover is swimming ?
Well .. ‘Breaking Newz Flash’ eh ! So how should ‘we’ perceive, appraise or describe a ‘Rupa’ or a ‘John Ivison’ ? An Ezra Levant or an Andrew Coyne ? At what point do masses of people ‘become used to’ .. ‘A Poilievre Government will give you back control of your life ‘ or ‘Best Summer Ever’ or ‘For The People’ ?
I often repeat .. the words ‘propaganda & parasitic’ - even in the same sentence.. but need to include ‘perceptions’ and/or ‘beliefs’ - But what if OUR PERCEPTIONS are being fabricated or influenced on a daily incremental basis.. ? Weakening, wearing us down, blending fallacy & rumour, sowing innuendo, suspicion, mistrust daily, via Mainstream & Social Media ? That’s a tried/true & proven Political Strategy
Just remember how a Major Federal Political Party & Integrated Partisan Mass Media - got away with a sensational & savage Strategy to turn the Chinese Electoral Interference Investigation by David Johnston into an Insult & Political Hate Driven Hysteria & Rabid Destructive Daily Circus Showtime by dragging it into The Big Inclusive Tent - with Malice & Aforethought.. all while looking for ‘the Next Gotcha’ ! Their now recycling the “he called us all misogynists !” plus “Trudeau is coming for your guns !” + now it’s becoming ‘they’re coming for your children !’
I like the analysis.. best I’ve read ! No body even close.. Personally ‘i’ve always seen Poilievre as repulsive, as are so many around him.. thus I find it seemingly incongruous that he’s still in the game. Regardless, what we are witnessing is an astonishing display of Trumpism from Poilievre’s pet Rallies. And does no one else note how similar the almost 150 Rallies are to a quasi religious bible gathering. The audiences cannot Vote For Pierre, but those people will certainly Vote The Party till the cows come home. But so what ? Right now they’re almost All White, Polite, mainly couples late 30’s & part of A Religious Evangelical Spectrum. What I keep wondering is how he sneaks back into Carleton does a more succinct set piece performance, the same never ending dross of fantastical promises, It has to be a hit & run & Jenni Byrne will demand & ‘stage’ loyal Voter from other ridings as well. A clandestine as possible They just want to pretend he held a rousing Rally adoring crowd with signs & kids & neighbours - but totally staged to boast with photo Ops & video the following AM
I agree and I believe Evan is currently the best writer and analyst of Canadian politics!
One item I have to disagree with you about. I don’t think that the people who are attracted by Poilievre’s message are limited to right wing Christians. I think that there are real concerns about housing, cost of living and healthcare in Canada. Poilievre is attractive for a lot of people because he talks about these issues. They are willing to accept his bogus solutions because he is the only one that is currently engaged on these issues.
“I think that there are real concerns about housing, cost of living and healthcare in Canada.”
I think this represents the real risk, and where the Liberals and NDP need to step up with serious proposals.
When only one party is talking about the things people care about it doesn’t matter how bad their suggestions are, or how problematic the rest of their policies are.
The CPC is not objectively credible on housing, cost of living, or healthcare. But they are by default more credible than alternatives that don’t offer their own alternatives.
.. & to correct my error, the Rally Invitees aside from several children range from mid-late 30’s into the majority who are ‘middle age’ as well as ‘seniors’. I screengrab Official Photos of any Rally & video and as an expert level photo journalist can apply a grid for counting, studying people, their demographics, & behaviour & especially so note from the beginning that masking was essentially non existent as was any ‘physical spacing whatsoever ! They gathered, sat or stood placidly, packed in for hours in enclosed spaces.. Rally attendees range from several hundreds to several thousand in numbers. To pretend these were not COVID Transmission Events defies Known Science. As always, I question the Perceptions Carleton Voters hold of their Elected Public Servant & where they form Opinions & Beliefs. Surely they’re more attuned than Poilievre’s Rally Attendees ? Their Elected MPP resigned after her Election finally. Failed to disclose The Law Society of Ontario has Suspended her Licence to Practice Law due to Fraudulent Acts
I believe that the Liberals are quite pleased with the kind of opposition their are facing. Jagmeet Singh as the useful idiot and Poilievre as mister uber-unlikeable with the people he needs to vote for him. However, this level of confidence can also be dangerous as there is not a lot of room for error (imagine a passport type debacle during an election period).
So far Poilievre seems to have the most success with attacking the government for issues that are predominantly provincial (housing, healthcare, education). The federal government cannot counter that with “no our jurisdiction”, as this is uncaring look.
Personally I think this gives the Liberals a massive opening to put a bold agenda on the table that intrudes massively on provincial responsibilities. I could see a massive housing plan that builds starting homes and apartments with rent to buy options. I could see healthcare mandates demanding provinces hire doctors so that at least 95% of Canadians have a family doctor. Poilievre has given Trudeau the political cover to step on provincial responsibilities and provide the voters a reason why they deserve another term (as opposed to Poilievre providing reason not to vote for him).
Except that I’ve never gotten the sense that the Liberals *want* to get deeply into provincial issues. They, like most everyone else, obviously wish the provincial governments would pull their heads out and do their jobs, but that’s not the same thing as being eager to do it for them.
The Liberals obviously still need a more nuanced and better communicated response than “not our jurisdiction”.
Two years ago I would have agreed with you, but I think the situation has changed. I agree it is not without risk, but I believe it is worth it for three reasons.
First, it neuters the stuff that Poilievre is trying to sell. Housing and healthcare are real concerns, and while the plan does not need to be perfect, the Liberals need to be seen as engaged on these topics.
Second, the Liberals need one or two big items that people can vote for. They have implemented most of the things they want to implement in the past 8 years, what is the reason to be in power for another couple of years? It cannot be more of the same.
Finally, most of the provinces are led by conservative premiers. The implicit or explicit message can be: if let the conservatives get to power, everything goes down the drain. In 2015 we stepped in to fix the mess of Harper, now we have to fix the mess of conservative premiers. Or in other words, if Poilievre wants it to be a federal election about provincial issues, we are happy to make it an election about Doug Ford and Francois Legault.
Trudeau has been hesitant at best to play in the Premiers’ sandboxes. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but the strategy would be a far more openly adversarial, even if polite, approach to the provinces.
They had a bit of that with the subsidized daycare, but the Feds treaded noticeably lightly. I’d go so far as to say they went out of their way to avoid scoring points off of provincial conservatives.
If he goes there it will represent a fairly fundamental shift to their approach to governing.
My gut feel is that the Liberals need something big to make the case why they want another term. And I don’t know what that could be if housing and healthcare are off the table.
Some may say climate change, but I think that would be a mistake. Canadians want to do something about climate change, but I don’t think it is an election winner as Canada is not going to solve this alone. Defense? Never has been an election winner either. Balancing the budget a la Harper? Not moving the needle either.
Of course something might happen that throws all of this by the wayside, but I think the raison d’être for next Trudeau government has to be healthcare and housing if it wants to govern another 4 years.
I think you have that exactly right. Other issues can get them elected, and Canadians will give them a free hand on climate change. But climate change is not a path to reelection
“Poilievre’s unable to make any strategic planning last”
It’s the populist’s curse. When your leadership is just running to the front of where the parade was already heading, you don’t get to pick the direction. Once you’re there you can make any pronouncements you want, but the reality is that when the parade turns behind you, you’re the one who needs to scramble to stay at the front.
He’s got his finger on the pulse of the outrage convoy, but it’s a one way communication. He lacks both the moral authority and the communications infrastructure and relationships that would be necessary to actually effect changes of trajectory.
Agreed.
Thanks for positivity re the Liberals. Personally the LOO scares the H..l out of me.
Do not under estimate the dislike for JT. He was ,what was needed to bring the liberals back from the grave but now is their biggest liability. He needs to hand the reigns to Chrystia Freeland, but won't, because of ego... so.... unfortunately we probably move right.
Do you actually ‘believe’ that the CPC Machine, Pierre Poilievre & Partisan Media & Yellow ‘Journalism’ is not the biggest ‘liability or threat’ to Canadian Governance by Trudeau & our current Government ? Consider how relentless their joint Savage Attacks on Mr David Johnston were ! Daily Insult, demeaning, malicious & malignant distortions, innuendo, lies.. ‘The Scenario’ they would trumpet is ‘Trudeau panics & runs, abandoning ‘poor’ Ms conflicted Freeland to a fruitless & historic & Crushing Election Loss to a Far Superior Man like Pierre Poilievre.. who’s time is NOW !’
I like this post even better - after reading the comments ! But wanna point out what ‘we’ seem to have missed or left out of the analysis.. so here’s the hilights of this dangerous phenomena ! Firstly - OUR PERCEPTIONS ? Where (whom) are the collective ‘we’ getting or evolving Our Perceptions From ?
Yes.. this always brings me back (as always) to MEDIA - Do I ? We ? Trust ‘our’ Media ? Next question - Do ‘we’ even recognize Propaganda (in all its shapes, forms, tactics, tools, techniques) when we are the ‘targets’ ? Do ‘we’ recognize Ongoing Influence Campaigns ? Do we recognize ‘blunt trauma’ or ‘wear down’ from endlessly applied ‘Daily Lies & Deception’ ?
Sometimes ‘accurate analysis’ is simply not always - going to ‘ring the fire alarm’ for us - we may need stunning Analogies or brilliant Metaphor. This is why I harp on the obvious Analogy of Parasites ! I’ve been stung by bees, literally hundreds of times -- eeow ! But that’s hardly the ‘EEOWW of finding a Blood Sucker on my neck after swimming in Lake Simcoe ! Have you ever met or had to shoot a Rabid Wild Dog ? How to you feel about Lamprey Eels where your children or lover is swimming ?
Well .. ‘Breaking Newz Flash’ eh ! So how should ‘we’ perceive, appraise or describe a ‘Rupa’ or a ‘John Ivison’ ? An Ezra Levant or an Andrew Coyne ? At what point do masses of people ‘become used to’ .. ‘A Poilievre Government will give you back control of your life ‘ or ‘Best Summer Ever’ or ‘For The People’ ?
I often repeat .. the words ‘propaganda & parasitic’ - even in the same sentence.. but need to include ‘perceptions’ and/or ‘beliefs’ - But what if OUR PERCEPTIONS are being fabricated or influenced on a daily incremental basis.. ? Weakening, wearing us down, blending fallacy & rumour, sowing innuendo, suspicion, mistrust daily, via Mainstream & Social Media ? That’s a tried/true & proven Political Strategy
Just remember how a Major Federal Political Party & Integrated Partisan Mass Media - got away with a sensational & savage Strategy to turn the Chinese Electoral Interference Investigation by David Johnston into an Insult & Political Hate Driven Hysteria & Rabid Destructive Daily Circus Showtime by dragging it into The Big Inclusive Tent - with Malice & Aforethought.. all while looking for ‘the Next Gotcha’ ! Their now recycling the “he called us all misogynists !” plus “Trudeau is coming for your guns !” + now it’s becoming ‘they’re coming for your children !’
I like the analysis.. best I’ve read ! No body even close.. Personally ‘i’ve always seen Poilievre as repulsive, as are so many around him.. thus I find it seemingly incongruous that he’s still in the game. Regardless, what we are witnessing is an astonishing display of Trumpism from Poilievre’s pet Rallies. And does no one else note how similar the almost 150 Rallies are to a quasi religious bible gathering. The audiences cannot Vote For Pierre, but those people will certainly Vote The Party till the cows come home. But so what ? Right now they’re almost All White, Polite, mainly couples late 30’s & part of A Religious Evangelical Spectrum. What I keep wondering is how he sneaks back into Carleton does a more succinct set piece performance, the same never ending dross of fantastical promises, It has to be a hit & run & Jenni Byrne will demand & ‘stage’ loyal Voter from other ridings as well. A clandestine as possible They just want to pretend he held a rousing Rally adoring crowd with signs & kids & neighbours - but totally staged to boast with photo Ops & video the following AM
I agree and I believe Evan is currently the best writer and analyst of Canadian politics!
One item I have to disagree with you about. I don’t think that the people who are attracted by Poilievre’s message are limited to right wing Christians. I think that there are real concerns about housing, cost of living and healthcare in Canada. Poilievre is attractive for a lot of people because he talks about these issues. They are willing to accept his bogus solutions because he is the only one that is currently engaged on these issues.
“I think that there are real concerns about housing, cost of living and healthcare in Canada.”
I think this represents the real risk, and where the Liberals and NDP need to step up with serious proposals.
When only one party is talking about the things people care about it doesn’t matter how bad their suggestions are, or how problematic the rest of their policies are.
The CPC is not objectively credible on housing, cost of living, or healthcare. But they are by default more credible than alternatives that don’t offer their own alternatives.
Bingo! Exactly.
.. & to correct my error, the Rally Invitees aside from several children range from mid-late 30’s into the majority who are ‘middle age’ as well as ‘seniors’. I screengrab Official Photos of any Rally & video and as an expert level photo journalist can apply a grid for counting, studying people, their demographics, & behaviour & especially so note from the beginning that masking was essentially non existent as was any ‘physical spacing whatsoever ! They gathered, sat or stood placidly, packed in for hours in enclosed spaces.. Rally attendees range from several hundreds to several thousand in numbers. To pretend these were not COVID Transmission Events defies Known Science. As always, I question the Perceptions Carleton Voters hold of their Elected Public Servant & where they form Opinions & Beliefs. Surely they’re more attuned than Poilievre’s Rally Attendees ? Their Elected MPP resigned after her Election finally. Failed to disclose The Law Society of Ontario has Suspended her Licence to Practice Law due to Fraudulent Acts
Might be because PP is such a pos that women hate him?