Reading this at this point, considering where we were back in December, is not unlike enjoying the Habs in the first round of the playoffs (considering where they were in December). My question is this: if the Liberals win a majority, how long does Poilievre have before he's out on his ass?
You may be correct, but I can’t quite imagine him resigning when his raison d’être is to foment anger and resentment against the sitting government by sharing his oppositional defiant disorder. He loves the spotlight.
Well, of course this assumes he keeps his seat. Which is not a given.
Poilievre and Byrne have not made friends in the caucus in the past 2 years. While the polls were good the Conservative MPs accepted the humiliating assignments of being barking hyenas in the house. If the loss is confirmed, the caucus will get rid of him faster than an O’Toole. The knives are being sharpened as we speak.
Maybe just maybe the party collectively gives its head a shake ...!Nah never happen and they will grow madder and madder .I suspect PP will try hard to stay on.
I hope you’re right. I tend toward ‘the glass is half empty’ end of the hope spectrum, and Kamala’s loss STILL has me shaken so I’ll fret til the final count is in.
What I like is that Elections Canada is more reliable than the more chaotic state election systems. I am confident that the final numbers will reflect the voters wishes. I am less confident about that in the US.
I feel exactly the same.Our polls are generally very good,I have been following Evan Scrimshaw's substack,his understanding of the polling process is so helpful and makes me breath much easier
Your conclusions sound the same as I’m hearing and reading from Eric Grenier. Making sense of polling is an important contribution to democracy in this age of prolific polling. Thanks for doing it.
Right now all the polls are quite stable and consistent. Yes Mainstreet is more favourable for the Conservatives, other ones are more favourable for the Liberals. They are all pointing to the same outcome.
The only thing about missing something is turn-out. Do all the models still provide accurate projection when the turn-out is, let’s be crazy, around 80% instead of a low 60-65%? Would everything just scale? How would this work in the various regions? I honestly do not know which party would be benefit, if any, but this would be the last remaining question mark.
Having said that, keep campaigning as if you are 5% behind. There is no downside to putting in the effort.
this is my question as well. *if* - and i'm not sure if there is anything to specifically indicate this if - voter turnout is way, way higher than anticipated, how does that change things? because fournier/338 had a breakdown yesterday suggesting voters under 65 are essentially tied in the GTA between the lpc and cpc, and that the above 65 crowd pushes that heavily in favour of the lpc (37% spread).
well, the <65 demographic is much larger in terms of population, but the 65+ demographic has the highest historical voter turnout and there's probably not much upside in terms of what they could add to turnout. what happens if that's not true, or at the very least if the gap closes?
if the elder millennial/gen x 35-49 voters in the gta, turnout at 80%+ vs the expected, idk, <60%... and they stay true to their polled 5% cpc lead in the gta... what happens? guessing the 37% spread that drives the overall GTA LPC+7 shrinks, but does it simply pointlessly narrow the gap, or does it evaporate the lead, and even flip some currently safe ridings?
apologies if it's a stupid question that has been largely addressed by any of the major polls, but my layman gut feels like it's a fair premise for the polls to be true *and* for unanticipated high turnouts in specific voter segments to lead to different results from the expectations.
No, the question is not stupid at all. It is exactly my question as well. As this appears to be an atypical election, assumptions on who actually votes and who stays home could be quite wrong. I am afraid we will only know the evening of the 28th.
Your justifications are starting to read lame and contrived. Just listen to your own advice and relax. A probable Liberal majority of any size is so much improved over the likely 43 seats Liberal total
The one nugget from EKOS I thought was really interesting—about 20% of those polled had already voted, and of those the Liberals have about a 12 point lead. I have thought that enthusiasm for voting in this election might be a plus for the Liberals and this might be an indicator. But, gotta GOTV for E-day
I suspect that is a bit like mail in voting in the US which favoured the progressive side by a long shot. I expect next Monday will not be so tilted toward the Libs.
I am not sure about that.. is the Dem mail vote effect a Dem/GOP thing or a product of the fact that the states that allow mail voting are more progressive on average?
Regardless, people involved in the election vote early so they can be available to work E-day (like me) but ALL parties want to “bank” an early vote. Either the Liberal ground game is way more effective in getting their folks out to the polls early OR the enthusiasm for voting is higher among Liberals. Either way I think it is a good sign.
We should celebrate the high voter interest in this election and hope that when the smoke clears a government will be elected with the highest turnout in decades.
Just want to take a moment to reflect on the fact that less than 4 months ago it was "Liberal cope" to think we could save 100 seats. Now Liberals are panicking over polls that produce a strong Liberal minority.
America has set itself on fire and threatened us since 4 months ago. The stakes are much higher at this point, thus why we're all freaking out. LPC *has* to form government, it's the only way we make it through the myriad of crises headed our way.
No, we are not all freaking out. There are some of us hoping for rational thinking going forward and realign our priorities towards a stronger military, enhanced trade and a balanced budget in Ottawa.
These are achievable goals but Canadians will have to place more reliance upon themselves and less on believing that Big Government can give us everything for free.
how do we square this with the recent polling miss in Saskatchewan? The right is using that election as a signal that the polling firms aren’t able to capture everything and that mainstreet, research and liaison all missed. So what if there is a huge miss here agin that isn’t being accounted for ?
My rational side hears you and agrees, we’re heading for a majority liberal government.
My irrational side which since November has been my primary driver is flipping out and anxious that something is missing again like on Saskatchewan and rural enthusiasm. Different elections and motivations though, so we’ll see. Hope the polls are right
Reading this at this point, considering where we were back in December, is not unlike enjoying the Habs in the first round of the playoffs (considering where they were in December). My question is this: if the Liberals win a majority, how long does Poilievre have before he's out on his ass?
About 30 minutes.
Here's hoping.
My expectation is that he resigns in his concession speech.
Having trouble imagining him capable of DOING a concession speech.
Well, it won't be as though the loss comes as a shock, I suppose.
He will blame Trudeau. lol
You may be correct, but I can’t quite imagine him resigning when his raison d’être is to foment anger and resentment against the sitting government by sharing his oppositional defiant disorder. He loves the spotlight.
Well, of course this assumes he keeps his seat. Which is not a given.
Poilievre and Byrne have not made friends in the caucus in the past 2 years. While the polls were good the Conservative MPs accepted the humiliating assignments of being barking hyenas in the house. If the loss is confirmed, the caucus will get rid of him faster than an O’Toole. The knives are being sharpened as we speak.
I would be very happy to be rid of him for good. I find the many personalities of Mr Poilievre repulsive.
Maybe just maybe the party collectively gives its head a shake ...!Nah never happen and they will grow madder and madder .I suspect PP will try hard to stay on.
Me too. I suspect Jenni Byrne will be the most likely casualty of an election loss. PP will just keep on spreading manure online and in the house.
I’m more wondering if he pulls a Scheer and sticks around in parliament as he’s otherwise unemployable.
He could potentially lose his seat
Fingers crossed.
I hope you’re right. I tend toward ‘the glass is half empty’ end of the hope spectrum, and Kamala’s loss STILL has me shaken so I’ll fret til the final count is in.
What I like is that Elections Canada is more reliable than the more chaotic state election systems. I am confident that the final numbers will reflect the voters wishes. I am less confident about that in the US.
I feel exactly the same.Our polls are generally very good,I have been following Evan Scrimshaw's substack,his understanding of the polling process is so helpful and makes me breath much easier
Your conclusions sound the same as I’m hearing and reading from Eric Grenier. Making sense of polling is an important contribution to democracy in this age of prolific polling. Thanks for doing it.
Right now all the polls are quite stable and consistent. Yes Mainstreet is more favourable for the Conservatives, other ones are more favourable for the Liberals. They are all pointing to the same outcome.
The only thing about missing something is turn-out. Do all the models still provide accurate projection when the turn-out is, let’s be crazy, around 80% instead of a low 60-65%? Would everything just scale? How would this work in the various regions? I honestly do not know which party would be benefit, if any, but this would be the last remaining question mark.
Having said that, keep campaigning as if you are 5% behind. There is no downside to putting in the effort.
this is my question as well. *if* - and i'm not sure if there is anything to specifically indicate this if - voter turnout is way, way higher than anticipated, how does that change things? because fournier/338 had a breakdown yesterday suggesting voters under 65 are essentially tied in the GTA between the lpc and cpc, and that the above 65 crowd pushes that heavily in favour of the lpc (37% spread).
well, the <65 demographic is much larger in terms of population, but the 65+ demographic has the highest historical voter turnout and there's probably not much upside in terms of what they could add to turnout. what happens if that's not true, or at the very least if the gap closes?
if the elder millennial/gen x 35-49 voters in the gta, turnout at 80%+ vs the expected, idk, <60%... and they stay true to their polled 5% cpc lead in the gta... what happens? guessing the 37% spread that drives the overall GTA LPC+7 shrinks, but does it simply pointlessly narrow the gap, or does it evaporate the lead, and even flip some currently safe ridings?
apologies if it's a stupid question that has been largely addressed by any of the major polls, but my layman gut feels like it's a fair premise for the polls to be true *and* for unanticipated high turnouts in specific voter segments to lead to different results from the expectations.
No, the question is not stupid at all. It is exactly my question as well. As this appears to be an atypical election, assumptions on who actually votes and who stays home could be quite wrong. I am afraid we will only know the evening of the 28th.
Your justifications are starting to read lame and contrived. Just listen to your own advice and relax. A probable Liberal majority of any size is so much improved over the likely 43 seats Liberal total
that everyone predicted back in December.
The one nugget from EKOS I thought was really interesting—about 20% of those polled had already voted, and of those the Liberals have about a 12 point lead. I have thought that enthusiasm for voting in this election might be a plus for the Liberals and this might be an indicator. But, gotta GOTV for E-day
I suspect that is a bit like mail in voting in the US which favoured the progressive side by a long shot. I expect next Monday will not be so tilted toward the Libs.
I am not sure about that.. is the Dem mail vote effect a Dem/GOP thing or a product of the fact that the states that allow mail voting are more progressive on average?
Regardless, people involved in the election vote early so they can be available to work E-day (like me) but ALL parties want to “bank” an early vote. Either the Liberal ground game is way more effective in getting their folks out to the polls early OR the enthusiasm for voting is higher among Liberals. Either way I think it is a good sign.
Would be interesting to have regional
Detail on early voter turnout…
We should celebrate the high voter interest in this election and hope that when the smoke clears a government will be elected with the highest turnout in decades.
You know better, don’t get comfy on your couch and predict a win. Don’t act like a Leafs fan, one win and you have the cup all locked-up.
Great writing.
Just want to take a moment to reflect on the fact that less than 4 months ago it was "Liberal cope" to think we could save 100 seats. Now Liberals are panicking over polls that produce a strong Liberal minority.
America has set itself on fire and threatened us since 4 months ago. The stakes are much higher at this point, thus why we're all freaking out. LPC *has* to form government, it's the only way we make it through the myriad of crises headed our way.
No, we are not all freaking out. There are some of us hoping for rational thinking going forward and realign our priorities towards a stronger military, enhanced trade and a balanced budget in Ottawa.
These are achievable goals but Canadians will have to place more reliance upon themselves and less on believing that Big Government can give us everything for free.
how do we square this with the recent polling miss in Saskatchewan? The right is using that election as a signal that the polling firms aren’t able to capture everything and that mainstreet, research and liaison all missed. So what if there is a huge miss here agin that isn’t being accounted for ?
It's unlikely a miss would be that huge.
Put it this way: if CPC internals had them ahead, woukd we bexseeinf Stephen Fucking Harper or two ols guys playing golf?
No. We'd be seeing Pierre + Anaida abd rallies and and.
The race isn't WON, but it's looking good.
My rational side hears you and agrees, we’re heading for a majority liberal government.
My irrational side which since November has been my primary driver is flipping out and anxious that something is missing again like on Saskatchewan and rural enthusiasm. Different elections and motivations though, so we’ll see. Hope the polls are right