I don't know how the LPC can recover from this. It feels like they can't do any governing right.
1. The folks who voted Liberal in 2015-2021, don't follow politics closely, and are just sick of Trudeau because he's been around for so long - they aren't coming back to the LPC because fatigue happens.
2. The folks who voted Liberal in 2015-2021, do follow politics closely, and have kids who had hard times getting first jobs or affording rent - now they know that the LPC stacked the deck against their kids - they aren't coming back to the LPC. These folks are younger, and they will remember.
That's a lot of folks in category 2 that the LPC can't afford to lose.
I know the apologists for the LPC will try to talk about federalism and the role of the provinces and municipalities in housing supply, and there's some truth to that - Mike Moffatt has been beating the housing drum for a *LONG* time about *both* sides of the housing equation (the need for supply, the gradual then fast increase in immigration of all kinds). But to keep housing affordable, the feds are the start - they act to create demand through immigration, so they need to adjust if the provinces and municipalities don't keep up their side. When the provinces and municipalities create growth, they anger vocal voters. I saw the Coletto poll last week about people generally supporting reduced house values to enable growth, and I believe that - but I also know that I only hear from my neighbors who are apoplectic about a potential triplex going up across the street. I suspect that my Councillor and provincial representative only hear from them too. So the provinces and municipalities need to sail against headwinds to act to create supply and ultimately lower housing costs - if they don't act (which is easier) and the feds don't respond, housing costs go up. And the feds will get blamed.
I forget when Trudeau made the comment that they didn't want house prices to go down, but that probably identified the policy priorities of the LPC. They have people sick of them, the people who need them are being told "screw you, we value the old and wealthier people more than you", and now we're hearing that Tim Hortons is artificially keeping wages down by avoiding hiring Canadian kids *with the government's help*? For goodness sake, I'd expect that from Doug Ford, not the LPC - but here we are.
The hardest part of this? I spent time this summer in western Newfoundland and Labrador, where they *do* have labour shortages and TFWs *are* necessary to fill some hospitality jobs - the available kids are all working there too. My faith in the LPC government to unwind this mess is not strong - how will they react when Tim's in Mississauga raises coffee prices by a buck because their cheap TFW labour isn't available? And will they come down harder on the store in Gander than the store in Oakville? And when the coffee price does go up, can't you see Poilievre's video now?
If you need TFWs for hospitality - then that hospitality business doesn't need to exist. Pay more or move the business elsewhere. That's how business is supposed to work.
> and TFWs *are* necessary to fill some hospitality jobs
OR... maybe the real labour market rate for Canadian labour in western Newfoundland and Labrador isn't just a little bit higher than what employers want to offer, but is actually RADICALLY higher?
The supply demand curve doesn't care if the real market price for hospitality labour is $72/hour instead of the $22 the employer thinks is "fair". I pulled those numbers out of thin air, but numbers aside, that's almost certainly the case because at some point, people WILL move for high wages even if only during the summer season.
> they *do* have labour shortages and TFWs *are* necessary to fill some hospitality jobs
The useful modifier applies here to, because "dog shit wages" is a matter of perspective. If the real market rate is $72/hour, then $22 is "dog shit".
Now there’s a good column. I might even become a paid subscriber… LPC doing anything to win instead of creating well thought out national policies, Tabernoosh
It's gone beyond infuriating to just defeating. Truly will welcome a Conservative majority government at this point just to get a hopefully full reset of the Liberal Party. We've blown the chances of a re-tool; it has to be a full scale re-build.
Evan, I write as a (my self descriptor) mildly conservative type [note the small "c"]. I am in my seventies so I can say, "I remember when ..."
I was a supporter of the LPC until 1968; at that time I was taken aback and then withheld both support and direct opposition for a few years. Well, T1 settled that when he declared (fiscal) war on my province (Alberta) - 1974, as I recall. I won't bore you with the details but suffice it to say that it wasn't the National Energy Program but a predecessor outrage; of course the NEP did subsequently occur, yada, yada, yada. I was kinda, possibly, maybe attracted back by Turner and then even by Chretien/Martin.
But now? Your final sentence is, "Fuck this party makes it hard to not hate them." I have no difficulty whatsoever in hating the LPC and the cretins who lead it and all their gloomy (definitely not "sunny") ways.
I can absolutely say that I will never vote LPC for the rest of my life. Between T1 and T2 and their acolytes, it is clear that the LPC is trying to financially dismantle the province of Alberta. The claim of "global warming" as an excuse just doesn't cut it; oh, I don't argue global warming but trying to deal with it by a) bankrupting Canada; b) preventing it's most prosperous province from being able to flourish; and c) thinking that taxing Canadians will make up for emissions in China, India, etc. is so foolish as to be beyond words.
So, it is certainly interesting (gratifying? yes!) to see LPC supporters gnashing their teeth and tearing out their hair. If only it wasn't just figurative.
If even Evan Scrimshaw is changing his tune and is now looking positively towards the Tories, then it's truly over for the LPC, and probably long-term. Honestly, I feel that Canada and Germany are very similar in their political trajectory: an ascendant left for much of the last 10 years or so, then lots of blunders associated with centre-left governments (immigration, energy and taxes) and this created a backlash against the left broadly. Beth Germany and Canada are almost guaranteed to elect a conservative government next election, though because FPTP Canada's will almost certainly be a majority government, while Germany's will be a coalition government. I am expecting a PP majority government to be by far the most right-wing Western government on most issues, and if he's successful, PP has the chance to establish Canada as the most conservative country of the Western World, where conservative Europeans will move to en masse if the Right-Wing populists don't gain power in most of the EU (as seems likely). Thus, any prudent politically inclined person in Canada will be incentivised to support the CPC and other conservative parties. I guess for the left, there might come a time when they will push for annexation by the US as Canada will very likely become more right-wing overall than the US in the next few decades...
I don't know how the LPC can recover from this. It feels like they can't do any governing right.
1. The folks who voted Liberal in 2015-2021, don't follow politics closely, and are just sick of Trudeau because he's been around for so long - they aren't coming back to the LPC because fatigue happens.
2. The folks who voted Liberal in 2015-2021, do follow politics closely, and have kids who had hard times getting first jobs or affording rent - now they know that the LPC stacked the deck against their kids - they aren't coming back to the LPC. These folks are younger, and they will remember.
That's a lot of folks in category 2 that the LPC can't afford to lose.
I know the apologists for the LPC will try to talk about federalism and the role of the provinces and municipalities in housing supply, and there's some truth to that - Mike Moffatt has been beating the housing drum for a *LONG* time about *both* sides of the housing equation (the need for supply, the gradual then fast increase in immigration of all kinds). But to keep housing affordable, the feds are the start - they act to create demand through immigration, so they need to adjust if the provinces and municipalities don't keep up their side. When the provinces and municipalities create growth, they anger vocal voters. I saw the Coletto poll last week about people generally supporting reduced house values to enable growth, and I believe that - but I also know that I only hear from my neighbors who are apoplectic about a potential triplex going up across the street. I suspect that my Councillor and provincial representative only hear from them too. So the provinces and municipalities need to sail against headwinds to act to create supply and ultimately lower housing costs - if they don't act (which is easier) and the feds don't respond, housing costs go up. And the feds will get blamed.
I forget when Trudeau made the comment that they didn't want house prices to go down, but that probably identified the policy priorities of the LPC. They have people sick of them, the people who need them are being told "screw you, we value the old and wealthier people more than you", and now we're hearing that Tim Hortons is artificially keeping wages down by avoiding hiring Canadian kids *with the government's help*? For goodness sake, I'd expect that from Doug Ford, not the LPC - but here we are.
The hardest part of this? I spent time this summer in western Newfoundland and Labrador, where they *do* have labour shortages and TFWs *are* necessary to fill some hospitality jobs - the available kids are all working there too. My faith in the LPC government to unwind this mess is not strong - how will they react when Tim's in Mississauga raises coffee prices by a buck because their cheap TFW labour isn't available? And will they come down harder on the store in Gander than the store in Oakville? And when the coffee price does go up, can't you see Poilievre's video now?
If you need TFWs for hospitality - then that hospitality business doesn't need to exist. Pay more or move the business elsewhere. That's how business is supposed to work.
> and TFWs *are* necessary to fill some hospitality jobs
OR... maybe the real labour market rate for Canadian labour in western Newfoundland and Labrador isn't just a little bit higher than what employers want to offer, but is actually RADICALLY higher?
The supply demand curve doesn't care if the real market price for hospitality labour is $72/hour instead of the $22 the employer thinks is "fair". I pulled those numbers out of thin air, but numbers aside, that's almost certainly the case because at some point, people WILL move for high wages even if only during the summer season.
> they *do* have labour shortages and TFWs *are* necessary to fill some hospitality jobs
The useful modifier applies here to, because "dog shit wages" is a matter of perspective. If the real market rate is $72/hour, then $22 is "dog shit".
You capture all the consequences of this mismanagement very clearly.
I would just add to the pile: Canada took in 300,000 Ukrainians in 2023 on temporary visas, no time limit.
Where do they live? Work?
Then Immigration Minister Fraser overrode his dept advice to NOT bring in this unprecedented number of refugees.
And this happened ON TOP of the unprecedented numbers of TFWs AND foreign students?
What was anyone in PMO or cabinet thinking??
The worst effect has to be the hardening of anti-immigrant attitudes.
Shocking carelessness, incompetence, irresponsibility.
I am troubled more, however, by the prospect of more and worse from a Poilievre govt.
Now there’s a good column. I might even become a paid subscriber… LPC doing anything to win instead of creating well thought out national policies, Tabernoosh
It's gone beyond infuriating to just defeating. Truly will welcome a Conservative majority government at this point just to get a hopefully full reset of the Liberal Party. We've blown the chances of a re-tool; it has to be a full scale re-build.
Evan, I write as a (my self descriptor) mildly conservative type [note the small "c"]. I am in my seventies so I can say, "I remember when ..."
I was a supporter of the LPC until 1968; at that time I was taken aback and then withheld both support and direct opposition for a few years. Well, T1 settled that when he declared (fiscal) war on my province (Alberta) - 1974, as I recall. I won't bore you with the details but suffice it to say that it wasn't the National Energy Program but a predecessor outrage; of course the NEP did subsequently occur, yada, yada, yada. I was kinda, possibly, maybe attracted back by Turner and then even by Chretien/Martin.
But now? Your final sentence is, "Fuck this party makes it hard to not hate them." I have no difficulty whatsoever in hating the LPC and the cretins who lead it and all their gloomy (definitely not "sunny") ways.
I can absolutely say that I will never vote LPC for the rest of my life. Between T1 and T2 and their acolytes, it is clear that the LPC is trying to financially dismantle the province of Alberta. The claim of "global warming" as an excuse just doesn't cut it; oh, I don't argue global warming but trying to deal with it by a) bankrupting Canada; b) preventing it's most prosperous province from being able to flourish; and c) thinking that taxing Canadians will make up for emissions in China, India, etc. is so foolish as to be beyond words.
So, it is certainly interesting (gratifying? yes!) to see LPC supporters gnashing their teeth and tearing out their hair. If only it wasn't just figurative.
Very well said.
If even Evan Scrimshaw is changing his tune and is now looking positively towards the Tories, then it's truly over for the LPC, and probably long-term. Honestly, I feel that Canada and Germany are very similar in their political trajectory: an ascendant left for much of the last 10 years or so, then lots of blunders associated with centre-left governments (immigration, energy and taxes) and this created a backlash against the left broadly. Beth Germany and Canada are almost guaranteed to elect a conservative government next election, though because FPTP Canada's will almost certainly be a majority government, while Germany's will be a coalition government. I am expecting a PP majority government to be by far the most right-wing Western government on most issues, and if he's successful, PP has the chance to establish Canada as the most conservative country of the Western World, where conservative Europeans will move to en masse if the Right-Wing populists don't gain power in most of the EU (as seems likely). Thus, any prudent politically inclined person in Canada will be incentivised to support the CPC and other conservative parties. I guess for the left, there might come a time when they will push for annexation by the US as Canada will very likely become more right-wing overall than the US in the next few decades...
Trudeau won't criticize a genocide for a couple of ridings,