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I too am a lifelong liberal and Liberal. And in despair. I was a Laurier Club member and stopped giving last year. No one called or asked why. I was a Victory Fund member (Vancouver Centre) and stopped giving and no one called or asked why. An effective leader creates and develops more leaders. This one has utterly failed. We need at least a competent and communicating Cabinet, an immediate increase in defence spending and stop idiocies like a GST break on my dining out and liquor bills.

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I too "was" a lifelong Liberal/liberal. I quit supporting them by 2021. And now this, probably the last straw for many, and I hope that's the case TBH. The handout to those making up to $150,000 and $300,000 (or more) for a two-income family, while leaving out the most vulnerable (i.e. low-income retirees, the disabled, the unemployed) is not going over well for many people, not just Conservatives. Moreover, the GST relief for things that only those who can afford them buy is another blunder. Then there is the unequal treatment between provinces with the HST or alternatively, the GST and PST that is creating division in two ways. Some are getting a 5% break and others are getting up to 15%, while those provinces with the HST are losing revenue unless of course, the Liberals are willing to cough up the difference. And to think they were calling out Ford for his vote-buying freebies. The hypocrisy is revolting. In some ways, this is worse because those who need the break the most aren't getting it. I find it disgusting.

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I totally agree how ridiculous these vote-buying freebies are, especially given there are initiatives in place that would allowed to target the people who need the most (e.g making a one time enhancement of the GST refundable tax credit with the same money that we are wasting on this initiative would have been 1.000% more helpful). However, as a lifelong liberal as well, I am not sure who is left to support, given both the liberals and the NPD support this stupidity and I have absolutely no confidence in PP’s capabilities to even care to help the most in needs.

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3hEdited

In a span of 3 weeks we have polls that have the Liberals somewhere between 9% and 30% behind. The sample sizes of both polls are respectable. What does this tell us? Voters are not very steady in their choice at the moment.

Having said that, I think it will not matter at all after the end of January for two reasons. On January 20th we will have president Trump. Right now even his worst cabinet picks are getting the benefit of the doubt (why would any Trump nominee get the benefit of the doubt). It is going to be complete chaos and short of another pandemic it is the best opportunity for Trudeau to rally the troops and be the sane politician in the room.

If Poilievre is wise he would declare that once we reach the border it is one Canada, but he will be in control of his emotions as a Brady Tkachuk losing five games in a row. The urge to say “Trudeau is bad” about anything will be too compelling. Trudeau and the Liberals will benefit from this, but only once Trump is in office has enacted his first damaging policies.

The second reason is that there will be a foreign interference report that will lay out how Poilievre received help from India and possibly other countries. It will be damaging.

Let’s see what the polls say in March.

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"The Liberal Party is heading off a cliff of self delusion and arrogance, victims of a God complex and a man’s deep insecurity to the point where the entire country will be the victims." Incredibly wonderful!

"If you despair at that like I do..." I absolutely do not despair; I rejoice at that prospect!

It is not that I am a PP fan; indeed, I wonder (but am mildly hopeful) how he will perform. The issue, instead, is that I have always been contemptuous of the Face Painter's principal virtues being good hair and good teeth. I feel that many of his "signature achievements" were total intrusions into provincial responsibility and I further feel that he has absolutely no clue, not one fucking clue, I say, about the finances of the nation. "Budgets balance themselves." "You'll forgive me if I don't think about monetary policy."

The Face Painter has divided the country and admitted vast numbers of people who are opposed to what Canada stands for.

So, again, I am not a PP fan but I am certainly an incredibly vigorous foe of the Face Painter.

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It’s funny, when the bad polls had the Liberals down 20, people pointed to the polls where they were only down 15 as a reason not to panic. Then the bad polls had them down 25, and suddenly the ones where they were down 20 were reason to be calm and stay the course. Now the bad polls have them down 30, but those same voices say we shouldn’t take it seriously because the other polls they’re only down 25.

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This is bad no doubt but you should look at seat projection at more credible source than Bryan Breguet (e.g Canada338, Eric Grenier, etc.).

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author

I’d say this to Bryan’s face: he might be an asshole but he’s good at seat projections

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Why? Are any of the more sophisticated projections not the sort of complete disaster that should constitute an all hands on deck emergency? Is there any real argument that getting 45 seats might require action, but as long as they’re getting 65 everything’s fine?

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Oh I totally agree that things are extremely bad for the liberals and they are going right to a wall and the impact will be brutal. My comment was not done to minimize in any way. However, to have follow Bryan for sometimes back in the day, it’s pretty clear he had a strong biais at least in his commenting. I don’t know if he is biais influence his modeling but there are other projection sites in Canada led by people who don’t have a such obvious toward one party or the other.

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