Federally, I believe what we are seeing is a response to the Trump chaos. The greater the chaos, the stronger the support for the current party in government. I expect that we will see support similar to the peak of Covid if tariffs indeed become reality. Imagine newly minted PM Carney visiting the UK, the EU and agreeing that if the US levies tariffs to any one of these countries, all countries will enact retaliatory tariffs together. A NATO article 5, but for free trade.
Provincially, the PCs probably are overplaying their hand if they call an early election. People are not stupid and recognize a cynical power grab when they see one. My prediction: Doug Ford changes his mind and no early election.
Who knows re: polls but at the end of day, it’s difficult to see how Carney succeeds in a general election. He’s the personification of an ideology that has been rejected by voters all across the Western world. Will Canada be an outlier against that trend?
Maybe. But I don’t think so.
He’s the quintessential insider; an elite’s elite. The attack ads write themselves. He doesn’t live here for goodness sakes and hasn’t for a number of years!
Plus he has to convince Canadians that he’s the guy to lead them out of this mess even as he’s racking up endorsements from the team that put us here. Again, the ads write themselves.
I do think it’s going to closer than it would have been if Trudeau were still the leader but that’s only because if he stayed, the Liberals were looking an extinction level event.
I still think the over/under for the Conservatives is 200 seats in the next election and I’m still taking the over.
Delving into polls may be compelling in the context of the horse race but also causes a loss of perspective, especially at this early stage.
Don't apologize for being a Liberal partisan. Firstly, being "partisan" is normal, it simply means choosing a political position via either a candidate or a party, particularly when an election is imminent. Ultimately everyone has to choose now; you simply can NOT remain cool, uncommitted and "beyond the fray," the former, luxurious place where journalistic "objectivity" AND integrity used to live.
That place no longer exists since our politics have been completely changed by the Reform conservatives, something that we on the left seem to be having a lot of trouble accepting, because we ARE actually "cool," as well as extremely fair-minded.
But meanwhile, those nasty assholes have completely changed our political narrative by introducing the extreme avidity of "hyperpartisanship" wherein compromise (formerly a classic Canadian, progressive approach) disappears completely, creating instead severe polarization. One of the advantages should be to simplify choice by making it binary, but first you have to abandon the weeds where compromise used to take place in the real world among real people because that place is now embodied more by the internet.
And there, anonymity has demonstrably platformed and stoked the very worst of our common human nature, so it's now necessary for everyone to pan out for the big picture, where it only makes sense to annihilate the side that deliberately chose to stoke and mine that "worst," in the first place in order to divide and conquer.
That side has no leg left to stand on at this point, none whatsoever, so if we could just call it and give over to that reality, the truth could set us free again.
Ironically, this all started under the auspices of freedom, and "wanting in," but has now been exposed as "freedumb" and basically wanting to be obeyed, i.e. authoritarianism.
Federally, I believe what we are seeing is a response to the Trump chaos. The greater the chaos, the stronger the support for the current party in government. I expect that we will see support similar to the peak of Covid if tariffs indeed become reality. Imagine newly minted PM Carney visiting the UK, the EU and agreeing that if the US levies tariffs to any one of these countries, all countries will enact retaliatory tariffs together. A NATO article 5, but for free trade.
Provincially, the PCs probably are overplaying their hand if they call an early election. People are not stupid and recognize a cynical power grab when they see one. My prediction: Doug Ford changes his mind and no early election.
I had to look up the Lantsman thing. Epic troll by NES.
Who knows re: polls but at the end of day, it’s difficult to see how Carney succeeds in a general election. He’s the personification of an ideology that has been rejected by voters all across the Western world. Will Canada be an outlier against that trend?
Maybe. But I don’t think so.
He’s the quintessential insider; an elite’s elite. The attack ads write themselves. He doesn’t live here for goodness sakes and hasn’t for a number of years!
Plus he has to convince Canadians that he’s the guy to lead them out of this mess even as he’s racking up endorsements from the team that put us here. Again, the ads write themselves.
I do think it’s going to closer than it would have been if Trudeau were still the leader but that’s only because if he stayed, the Liberals were looking an extinction level event.
I still think the over/under for the Conservatives is 200 seats in the next election and I’m still taking the over.
Delving into polls may be compelling in the context of the horse race but also causes a loss of perspective, especially at this early stage.
Don't apologize for being a Liberal partisan. Firstly, being "partisan" is normal, it simply means choosing a political position via either a candidate or a party, particularly when an election is imminent. Ultimately everyone has to choose now; you simply can NOT remain cool, uncommitted and "beyond the fray," the former, luxurious place where journalistic "objectivity" AND integrity used to live.
That place no longer exists since our politics have been completely changed by the Reform conservatives, something that we on the left seem to be having a lot of trouble accepting, because we ARE actually "cool," as well as extremely fair-minded.
But meanwhile, those nasty assholes have completely changed our political narrative by introducing the extreme avidity of "hyperpartisanship" wherein compromise (formerly a classic Canadian, progressive approach) disappears completely, creating instead severe polarization. One of the advantages should be to simplify choice by making it binary, but first you have to abandon the weeds where compromise used to take place in the real world among real people because that place is now embodied more by the internet.
And there, anonymity has demonstrably platformed and stoked the very worst of our common human nature, so it's now necessary for everyone to pan out for the big picture, where it only makes sense to annihilate the side that deliberately chose to stoke and mine that "worst," in the first place in order to divide and conquer.
That side has no leg left to stand on at this point, none whatsoever, so if we could just call it and give over to that reality, the truth could set us free again.
Ironically, this all started under the auspices of freedom, and "wanting in," but has now been exposed as "freedumb" and basically wanting to be obeyed, i.e. authoritarianism.
The right has never been more wrong.
Sorry, what are the Mainstreet federal numbers? Can someone please share them?
Ok here it is, from Bluesky:
LPC: 36%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 11%
Wow. Ekos not looking so crazy now, huh?