These two Mainstreet polls are fascinating. One of the stats that I thought were telling is that close to 90% of the people were aware of the by-election. I suspect that is higher than usual.
I am wondering if the reason for the LPC doing better than expected in these polls could be that having to actually cast a vote makes people evaluate the parties differently. While a general election is still far away it easier for voters to go along with Pierre’s rage based campaign. It is sort of entertaining and interesting. But when it becomes real and you have to decide if you want to be part of the rage-all-the-time approach, you make a different evaluation?
So as I said on Twitter, I think CPC is a Trudeau stan account as of late.
All they do is "TRUDEAU TRUDEAU TURDO TRUDO" non-stop. You can say anything about fatigue, but Benzie said he talked to CPC insiders and they think they will lose ALL 25 TO seats.
All of them.
And you know what? I think CPC is happy about that. Why? Because they get to be in opposition for four more years and Poilievre or Marilyn Gladu or Scott Achison or Michelle Rempel can just go
"TRUDEAU TRUDEAU!" for another 4 years. I think they enjoy this: It's low-energy work, doesn't require policy creation or iteration and plays well to their base.
For that reason only, I'm hoping for a LPC win in Oxford. It won't do anything to Jenni Byrne b/c "TRUDEAU TRUDEAU TRUDEAU!" and so on.
All is well in Canada, an LPC-NDP or LPC-BQ minority would be great.
I don't think CPC will give BQ what they want (complete immigration control, a QC only tax form, elimination of bilingualism in QC) so that would just be another election in the making.
“there is a group of voters who are pissed at the Liberals but not actually mad or disappointed enough to really vote differently when the time comes”
Sounds an awful lot like the just finished Alberta Election. Poilievre should take the warning about what happens when you try and court fed-up voters without clearly defining an alternate vision.
As for polling, more and more I’m convinced that any polling that doesn’t include reasonably fine regional breakdowns isn’t even worth publishing or reading. The realities of our polarized FPtP multi-party system make a single national, or even provincial, polling number almost completely worthless.
Edit: I’ll go further than “almost completely worthless”. You’d be better served crafting strategies based on gut feeling of a handful of local observers across the country than on national level “scientific” polling. It puts the statistics in “lies, damn lies and statistics”
These two Mainstreet polls are fascinating. One of the stats that I thought were telling is that close to 90% of the people were aware of the by-election. I suspect that is higher than usual.
I am wondering if the reason for the LPC doing better than expected in these polls could be that having to actually cast a vote makes people evaluate the parties differently. While a general election is still far away it easier for voters to go along with Pierre’s rage based campaign. It is sort of entertaining and interesting. But when it becomes real and you have to decide if you want to be part of the rage-all-the-time approach, you make a different evaluation?
Nice closing line!
So as I said on Twitter, I think CPC is a Trudeau stan account as of late.
All they do is "TRUDEAU TRUDEAU TURDO TRUDO" non-stop. You can say anything about fatigue, but Benzie said he talked to CPC insiders and they think they will lose ALL 25 TO seats.
All of them.
And you know what? I think CPC is happy about that. Why? Because they get to be in opposition for four more years and Poilievre or Marilyn Gladu or Scott Achison or Michelle Rempel can just go
"TRUDEAU TRUDEAU!" for another 4 years. I think they enjoy this: It's low-energy work, doesn't require policy creation or iteration and plays well to their base.
For that reason only, I'm hoping for a LPC win in Oxford. It won't do anything to Jenni Byrne b/c "TRUDEAU TRUDEAU TRUDEAU!" and so on.
All is well in Canada, an LPC-NDP or LPC-BQ minority would be great.
I don't think CPC will give BQ what they want (complete immigration control, a QC only tax form, elimination of bilingualism in QC) so that would just be another election in the making.
“there is a group of voters who are pissed at the Liberals but not actually mad or disappointed enough to really vote differently when the time comes”
Sounds an awful lot like the just finished Alberta Election. Poilievre should take the warning about what happens when you try and court fed-up voters without clearly defining an alternate vision.
As for polling, more and more I’m convinced that any polling that doesn’t include reasonably fine regional breakdowns isn’t even worth publishing or reading. The realities of our polarized FPtP multi-party system make a single national, or even provincial, polling number almost completely worthless.
Edit: I’ll go further than “almost completely worthless”. You’d be better served crafting strategies based on gut feeling of a handful of local observers across the country than on national level “scientific” polling. It puts the statistics in “lies, damn lies and statistics”