NES, Cabinet, And Carney’s Betrayal Of The Left

On Carney’s Catastrophic Decision

The implicit deal between Mark Carney and the Canadian left was simple. We understood that the moment called for a discipline and unity that was unprecedented in modern Canadian history, and that Carney, even though he wasn’t really the reincarnation of the PCs that some claim, would be a step right of Trudeau. The deal was that we would swallow that in exchange for not electing a Conservative government, and for not making trouble for the fact that we were necessary parts of the tent we’d get at least consideration moving forward.

The decision to keep Nate Erskine-Smith in Cabinet in March was a sign that the implicit deal was properly understood, that Carney would reach out to the left in important ways and that we could trust Carney. Now, with Nate’s dropping, we can’t trust Carney. This decision has broken an already fragile trust between the Liberals and their left flank, let alone the usual NDP voters who saved us this year, and plainly has me wondering what the point of all of this is.

Nate was the right person to be Housing Minister, first off - he was a smart thinker who had his arms around the housing issues and managed to claw back one of our worst issues to, depending on the poll, a draw to slight win on more trusted to deal with housing. He did that in three months on the job, mostly during a leadership race, without benefit of any quiet news cycles to exploit. The housing platform was a masterstroke that has set Canada up, if implemented, to seriously lower rents and increase the material well being of millions of Canadians. But why should I have any confidence it will get implemented at this point?

Nate is also the best communicator in the government, a talented orator who can clearly communicate complicated concepts whether in interviews or in digital clips. He’s great direct to camera, he’s personable, funny, and authentic, he answers reporters’ questions well, and he is one of a frighteningly few MPs who can be trusted to handle follow up questions authentically. I hated his post-October caucus coup attempt scrum because he was giving cover to the PM, but the ability to manage that scrum as articulately and as effectively as he did is very real communications talent. It’s a talent that more time in the Ministry could have shown off for the good of the government, and it’s asinine they fired a communicator this good.

The decision to fire Nate is not the same as firing most other Cabinet Ministers, because most other Cabinet Ministers don’t have a well organized and effective political machine around them with national interest in their next move and have a brand around them that is hugely symbolic. Firing Jenna Sudds, as Carney did in March, didn’t mean anything. It couldn’t have meant anything, because how many people outside of Kanata knew who she was in the first place. Nate’s different, because his run for OLP leader and his time as a backbencher built him a following and a reputation. Firing him, no matter what he ends up saying, will, and frankly already has, poisoned the well with a significant amount of people.

It's not the end of the world for Nate, and I think it’s safe to say that he won’t be nearly as apoplectic about this decision as I am. Bonnie Crombie announced recently that there will be an AGM this fall wherein her leadership review will come up, and once we do our jobs and get that failed leader out of the provincial Liberal leadership, I’m sure he’ll have a decision to make about stepping up in that race. But as someone who has and at least ostensibly am going to continue to put in a considerable amount of time, energy, and effort into strengthening the progressive movement in this country, to be shit on by this government right after the election fucking hurts.

The implications of this are immense - Carney’s now going to have to be more progressive in action to keep the tent together, a hilarious legacy of making progressives less trustful of him, and he has used a lot of goodwill for no reason. That is goodwill he won’t get back without a lot of work, and I don’t know when or how he will make key constituencies who won him the election trust him again.

I hope Carney knows what he’s doing, if only because having made such a catastrophic decision there better be a fucking good reason for it. I hope against hope that this doesn’t represent the betrayal of the left of the party and the country that it very obviously looks like, but I know I’m wrong.

At least I can now invite him on the podcast, I guess. Fucking hell.

(Tuesday Morning I’ll be live-blogging the rest of Carney’s cabinet choices, starting around 10AM. Come read me crashing out in real time about these choices, which can’t be as bad as this one, can they?)