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Could Doug Ford not also be an "exception to the rule" like Turnbull? Ford implemented vaccine passports (despite his own ideological reservations), declared a state of emergency for the convoy, and is often discussing promises to strengthen the public healthcare system, all while promising substantial deficit spending... I would think these things could appeal to socially liberal suburbanites. It's also worth remembering that Ford slightly outperformed the polls in 2018. I very much hope your analysis is correct but I have doubts.

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