Poilievre’s Best Pivot, And How Carney Should Fight Back

On Mental Exercises

Macleans, for all the sins of its current iteration, was a formative experience for me. Paul Wells, Andrew Coyne, Jason Markusoff, and others are in many ways the foundation of my interest in writing and politics, and as a physical magazine subscriber I remember the rush of the day it’d arrive. And I remember, as a 12 year old, exactly where I was when I read one specific Wells piece.

From a June 27th, 2009 piece on the Summer Election That Wasn’t, Wells wrote the following: “Every now and then, Harper’s advisers—a loose-knit group that includes campaign chairman Doug Finley, chief of staff Guy Giorno, communications director Kory Ten­eycke and a few others—try to figure out what they would advise the Liberal leader if that were their job.” This isn’t particularly revolutionary, but to my 12 year old self, it was tactical brilliance personified. It’s also a worthwhile exercise here, so let’s do it in public, as a service to Carney’s campaign:

If I were running Pierre Poilievre’s campaign, how would I attack? And if I’m Carney, how would I respond?

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My problem with Poilievre’s campaign from a tactical standpoint is that it’s a campaign that’s missing the moment. If this election is about Trump, the 51st State, and who is best to stand up for Canada against enemies abroad, then he’s gonna lose and lose badly. But Poilievre starts at least one of his digital ads with a clip of him saying “Canada will never be the 51st State”, which is admirable as a citizen but tactically inept.

The problem for Poilievre is he has been making the political weather for years now, and he’s not anymore. Even his tax cut announced Monday will be seen as an effort to one-up Carney, who led with an albeit smaller tax cut. He can’t win if this election is about what Carney needs to make it about, so he needs to radically reframe the election, and fast.

The right way to do that, if he can, would be to announce a slew of policies on crime, drugs, ethics in government, and other areas where the Liberals are weaker. The advantage for the Conservatives is that they would be able to tap into the advantages they had in 2023 and 2024 with voters who think Carney is probably better to deal with Trump but can be persuaded that Trump isn’t the only important factor in this election.

If Poilievre can start to control the political weather, as it were, with populist and popular announcements that the Liberals will be forced to oppose as a matter of ideological necessity as well as consistency, then he can start to reframe this election. If this election is a referendum on bail reform and the state of the justice system and how bad the housing market is, then the Liberals are fucked.

The other key to this would be for the Conservatives to shift some of their paid media to attacks against the Liberal record and not the absolute dogshit they’ve been running against Carney. Their overreliance on the Carbon Tax has been a disaster for them, but more than that they’re focusing on trying to drag down Carney, which isn’t working. Carney’s got a net +21% on the question of whether people’s impressions of him have gotten better or worse in the last few weeks, per Angus Reid. All those ad dollars down the drain.

The way to counteract this, from Carney, is simple - they have to continue to make the political weather. They have to continue to be the ones that dictate the political news. They cannot be passengers in this campaign, but the leaders of it.

One of the tests I apply to good campaigns is what’s the main story at 5PM on Power and Politics. It’s a good barometer of which campaign managed to get their message across better that day, and one of the ways I knew the Liberals were running a good campaign in 2019 was their relentless oppo dumps were leading P&P, meaning whatever revelations about SNC or whatever were getting shunted to the B Block, when less people are watching. (At least, pre-Blackface.)

There have been some suggestions that the Liberals need to run a classic front runner’s campaign, and it couldn’t be further from the truth. Any day where the Liberals do little, allowing Poilievre to dominate discussion and attention, is a lost day, because it allows Poilievre to remind people of the many reasons they objected to this government 3 months ago. Carney needs to be at the centre of this election, if only because if he isn’t, then bad policy memories of Justin Trudeau’s time are.

The point of going to an early election is not to give people the time to remember why they hated Justin Trudeau, and the idea that Carney should try and play not to lose is antithetical to that. A prevent defence of a campaign would also leave the government vulnerable in case a punch did land, as they’d be unable to get the campaign back into gear if they fell backwards.

Carney’s advantage is his inexperience politically - he is isolated from a lot of the decisions of the Trudeau era and therefore can present a change option. The problem is, Carney will make mistakes, but that’s the trade off. You take the anti-system points and the change bonafides in exchange for the fact they don’t know how to run a good campaign instinctively.

The counter to that is if you limit the number of big events in a campaign, you cut down on the number of moments that matter, therefore intensifying the importance of every moment. If Carney botches a moment in a campaign littered with big moments, it’s a press bus joke and a Twitter flurry. If he botches a campaign that is protecting him and not making any other news, then Carney’s failure is a 3 day news cycle.

The Liberals need to keep the pressure on - they didn’t win this by pussying out. Poilievre’s best chance to win the next election is by dictating the narrative and reminding people that Trump is not the only thing that matters. If I’m Carney, I don’t let Poilievre dictate terms. Carney needs to push the envelope and control the narrative, if he wants to win.

(With the election here, consider a paid subscription. All of my work will remain available for free, but whether it’s to shore up the Scrimshaw Strategic Booze Reserve or merely to show thanks will be appreciated as I transition to a two-a-day column schedule most days.)