I suspect strategic voting is a big reason why the ONDP kept as many seats as it did... and full disclosure, I run NotOneSeat.ca
Vote splitting was a big concern provincially, many people don't like Ford (the Captain Canada cosplay notwithstanding) but didn't see a viable path towards getting rid of him. Lots of people didn't vote at all, of course, but a lot also voted strategically. The ONDP's support is siloed; where they are popular, they are very popular, so their incumbents had a strong base. Strategic votes tipped them over the edge.
Federally, it's a whole different situation. The anyone-but-Poilievre voters see Carney as a viable option for keeping him out. Strategic voting seems way less necessary since the vote isn't nearly as split with the Liberals in majority territory, although that may change somewhat if they slip. Still, NDP incumbents aren't going to get the same kind of boost from strategic voters over Liberals unless they can *really* demonstrate that they are truly the most viable option to defeat the CPC in their riding.
I may be off here, but I have to wonder how accurate polling is now as opposed to a number of years ago. With the increase in call display and the replacement of landlines with cell phones. Are pollsters getting the true randomness and cross section of respondents or are they getting a larger number of respondents who are politically partial. Myself for example, seldom pick up if my call display identifies a caller as a survey. However, during an election campaign, I don’t screen my calls as thoroughly.
I’m curious to see how the loss of a previous incumbent plays out in a seat like Regina Wascana. It wasn’t at all unusual in some elections to find that nearly half of the Liberal vote in all of Saskatchewan was in that one seat. I’m far from convinced that the Liberals can even hold their vote in Regina Wascana if their candidate’s name isn’t Goodale.
I’m convinced that, in time, Regina Wascana will revert to being a CPC-NDP marginal like other urban seats in Saskatchewan. But it may take a cycle or three, and the present dynamic may shore up Liberal fortunes there in this election.
Good lesson on polls. I especially like the explanation on incumbents. Personally, I have never given an incumbent any weight, but if you look at the nature of some voting age groups, they’d rather vote for who’s there rather than learn if there is someone new.
Is that why incumbency is so important? Because most (or many) just vote for who’s there?
Never rely on Polls unless all Canadians are ask to Participate.
I don’t bother to look at Polls when choosing to who to vote for.
I prefer to look at Credentials,Experience.
People who vote by looking at just Polls are lazy,don’t want to make an Educated Choice (POTENTIAL CPC VOTERS). If voting by what you see in a Poll. Just stay home and watch AMERICAN REALITY TV.
I suspect strategic voting is a big reason why the ONDP kept as many seats as it did... and full disclosure, I run NotOneSeat.ca
Vote splitting was a big concern provincially, many people don't like Ford (the Captain Canada cosplay notwithstanding) but didn't see a viable path towards getting rid of him. Lots of people didn't vote at all, of course, but a lot also voted strategically. The ONDP's support is siloed; where they are popular, they are very popular, so their incumbents had a strong base. Strategic votes tipped them over the edge.
Federally, it's a whole different situation. The anyone-but-Poilievre voters see Carney as a viable option for keeping him out. Strategic voting seems way less necessary since the vote isn't nearly as split with the Liberals in majority territory, although that may change somewhat if they slip. Still, NDP incumbents aren't going to get the same kind of boost from strategic voters over Liberals unless they can *really* demonstrate that they are truly the most viable option to defeat the CPC in their riding.
I agree. I *know* that happened here in London West, where we love our NDP incumbent, now re-elected.
How do you see longtime NDP seats Vancouver Kingsway and Vancouver East shaping up?
I may be off here, but I have to wonder how accurate polling is now as opposed to a number of years ago. With the increase in call display and the replacement of landlines with cell phones. Are pollsters getting the true randomness and cross section of respondents or are they getting a larger number of respondents who are politically partial. Myself for example, seldom pick up if my call display identifies a caller as a survey. However, during an election campaign, I don’t screen my calls as thoroughly.
I’m curious to see how the loss of a previous incumbent plays out in a seat like Regina Wascana. It wasn’t at all unusual in some elections to find that nearly half of the Liberal vote in all of Saskatchewan was in that one seat. I’m far from convinced that the Liberals can even hold their vote in Regina Wascana if their candidate’s name isn’t Goodale.
I’m convinced that, in time, Regina Wascana will revert to being a CPC-NDP marginal like other urban seats in Saskatchewan. But it may take a cycle or three, and the present dynamic may shore up Liberal fortunes there in this election.
Good lesson on polls. I especially like the explanation on incumbents. Personally, I have never given an incumbent any weight, but if you look at the nature of some voting age groups, they’d rather vote for who’s there rather than learn if there is someone new.
Is that why incumbency is so important? Because most (or many) just vote for who’s there?
Any feeling about what to expect in traditional NDP Victoria riding?
Never rely on Polls unless all Canadians are ask to Participate.
I don’t bother to look at Polls when choosing to who to vote for.
I prefer to look at Credentials,Experience.
People who vote by looking at just Polls are lazy,don’t want to make an Educated Choice (POTENTIAL CPC VOTERS). If voting by what you see in a Poll. Just stay home and watch AMERICAN REALITY TV.