Pundits, columnists and other commentators always try to portray that there is somehow a meaningful change. Nobody is going to read an article with the headline “absolutely nothing has changed”. So they are looking for each little chance and cherry pick aspects of the data and build a story around this. Never mind that some of these changes are well within the error margins.
If you are behind, you are looking for hopium and copium. Right now the Conservatives are looking for this. Mainstreet offered some of this, but so far it has not been seen by the other pollsters. On other hand EKOS was the hopium and copium for the Liberals 2-3 months ago, until the other pollsters caught up as well.
If you are ahead, you are just nervous. My phrase in these situations is always: “just because I am paranoid that does not mean they are not out to get me”. I would rather be nervous than overconfident. Just don’t do any stupid or rash things.
Albertan here, still think Liberals can pull off 5 seats. 2 in Calgary and 3 in Edmonton. Hope I’m right. Oh and 2 NDP in Edmonton. Making Redmonton a thing again 🤞
Well said. Although... I think we need a few more days though to see how much tightening there is in Quebec (and Ontario) post-debate. Right now, some of these field dates look like they include pre-debate.
Still, this narrowing of the lead may end up freaking non-Conservatives out who are wavering and flirting with the NDP (and BQ), and it may cause them to run back to the Liberals.
Standing in line at a Carney event on the weekend, chatting with a lady about what news sources we read. I mentioned I followed you on Substack and she laughed and said she did too! Thanks for keeping us informed.
I appreciate your analysis however I would caution against getting overly confident. That happened twice in the US general elections and we are suffering from the consequences. Any election, at its core, is all about the ground game - getting people out to vote.
I worked with LeadNow on the 2015 campaign. We targeted 50 swing ridings to consolidate the votes on the left and we were successful in all of them. I personally worked in St Pauls to rid ourselves of Joe Oliver. I also worked in St Pauls in the nineties when we beat Isabel Bassett
Liberals have dominated St Paul’s since 1935 and since 1993 it has only flipped to Conservatives 3 times
I know I’m one of the paranoid ones, but I’m sure I’m not alone in wondering this – what are the chances there’s a concerted conservative effort to lie in their responses to poll questions?
Pundits, columnists and other commentators always try to portray that there is somehow a meaningful change. Nobody is going to read an article with the headline “absolutely nothing has changed”. So they are looking for each little chance and cherry pick aspects of the data and build a story around this. Never mind that some of these changes are well within the error margins.
If you are behind, you are looking for hopium and copium. Right now the Conservatives are looking for this. Mainstreet offered some of this, but so far it has not been seen by the other pollsters. On other hand EKOS was the hopium and copium for the Liberals 2-3 months ago, until the other pollsters caught up as well.
If you are ahead, you are just nervous. My phrase in these situations is always: “just because I am paranoid that does not mean they are not out to get me”. I would rather be nervous than overconfident. Just don’t do any stupid or rash things.
Albertan here, still think Liberals can pull off 5 seats. 2 in Calgary and 3 in Edmonton. Hope I’m right. Oh and 2 NDP in Edmonton. Making Redmonton a thing again 🤞
Well said. Although... I think we need a few more days though to see how much tightening there is in Quebec (and Ontario) post-debate. Right now, some of these field dates look like they include pre-debate.
Still, this narrowing of the lead may end up freaking non-Conservatives out who are wavering and flirting with the NDP (and BQ), and it may cause them to run back to the Liberals.
Thank you so much for this.
Standing in line at a Carney event on the weekend, chatting with a lady about what news sources we read. I mentioned I followed you on Substack and she laughed and said she did too! Thanks for keeping us informed.
It's like going into the third period with a four goal lead. Just because the other team scores doesn't mean you're suddenly in a bad spot.
It’s GOTV time! I remain hopeful we get a turnout that is reminiscent of the ‘70s.
Don't be surprised if there are 2 NDP and as many as 6 Liberal seats in Alberta. Most of the action is in Edmonton.A
Well dang Evan, my registered Third Party is putting money into Kelowna Red to the bitter end. Hope I can thumb my nose at you next Monday! lol
I appreciate your analysis however I would caution against getting overly confident. That happened twice in the US general elections and we are suffering from the consequences. Any election, at its core, is all about the ground game - getting people out to vote.
I worked with LeadNow on the 2015 campaign. We targeted 50 swing ridings to consolidate the votes on the left and we were successful in all of them. I personally worked in St Pauls to rid ourselves of Joe Oliver. I also worked in St Pauls in the nineties when we beat Isabel Bassett
Liberals have dominated St Paul’s since 1935 and since 1993 it has only flipped to Conservatives 3 times
I know I’m one of the paranoid ones, but I’m sure I’m not alone in wondering this – what are the chances there’s a concerted conservative effort to lie in their responses to poll questions?
Carney was pathetic!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hs-CMNsForQ
Oh dear
That guy looks like a demented Dwight Schrute Jr.
Pay no attention to changes in polls. The Liberal party is in majority territory through 2050. Imagine the possibilities.
https://substack.com/profile/158195623-greatnorthmedia/note/c-110810330?r=x5pfu&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action