What’s so richly deserved about this outcome is it’s all about Trump threatening Canada. And you know PP and probably half his supporters were cheering for Trump to win. Haha, careful what you wish for suckers.
And even after he has demonstrated what a monster he is, what an economically illiterate dolt, and what a danger to Canada… still, STILL they can’t really bring themselves to condemn him.
The thing that annoys me about this election is all of the what if scenarios. The one that especially annoys me is when people try to map out a scenario where the former bloc(to a lesser extent), green and NDP voters decide to vote for their parties again. There likely isn't enough time for this scenario to happen in a big enough way to save the conservatives. Also the conservatives aren't really making things easier for these voters when they brag about crowd sizes, complain about net zero, the woke miltary, and etc.
Not sure I'd call Evan "Liberal" after he said he'd switch his vote to CPC if Poilievre had played Hot Wheels in Montreal. That's a paper-thin adherence at best.
Snark aside, the Conservatives are not really in trouble. They are happy to be in Opposition, collecting the $100,000+ travel vouchers for the foreseeable future.
Poilievre is as unserious as it gets. The slogans, the obsession with crowd size, the weird racing thing, bringing in "Daddy" to help boost his cred, so many other things...he truly seems like a child lashing out at the big bad Laurentian Elites, except they (we...) don't really care about his gang, a gang that rarely wins elections, let alone majorities, because of their ill-fated ties to Alberta and portions of the prairies.
In the end, the Liberals likely settle around 160-176 seats, and either make an agreement with Ruth-Ellen Brosseau after she becomes NDP leader or with Blanchet while giving goodies to QC.
Either way, the Conservatives are interesting in the way localized tornado events can be, as long as they don't tear down your own communities.
I find it interesting that Franks’s polls have frequently looked “out there” when they are released and then 7-10 days later the poll averages are close to the same as the EKOS polls.
The one thing I have heard floated, and I would be curious to hear your thoughts on it, is the "What if this is a Hillary situation, polls show Carney winning but he ends up loosing on election day?"
On a similar thread there was Radio-Canada reporting out of the CPC rally with partisans being like "Of course he's gonna win, look at the crowd here, if he doesn't win this election is rigged" and so on (sigh... We're not out of the woods yet...)
So yeah. Is there a scenario where the polls are just... Wrong?
Regional polls don't show individual ridings results. Thus, the provincial NDP held all their seats except one, as their MPPs were very popular. There was some close ones as Ontario Liberals pushed strategic voting, and almost allowed Cons to win those seats. A pollster apologized to Marit Stiles, and recognized the mistake. The NDP is the official opposition.
What’s so richly deserved about this outcome is it’s all about Trump threatening Canada. And you know PP and probably half his supporters were cheering for Trump to win. Haha, careful what you wish for suckers.
And even after he has demonstrated what a monster he is, what an economically illiterate dolt, and what a danger to Canada… still, STILL they can’t really bring themselves to condemn him.
Pierre looks very uncomfortable talking about Trump
The thing that annoys me about this election is all of the what if scenarios. The one that especially annoys me is when people try to map out a scenario where the former bloc(to a lesser extent), green and NDP voters decide to vote for their parties again. There likely isn't enough time for this scenario to happen in a big enough way to save the conservatives. Also the conservatives aren't really making things easier for these voters when they brag about crowd sizes, complain about net zero, the woke miltary, and etc.
Good to read another Liberal analyst saying “The Conservatives are losing” 👍 🇨🇦 🗳️
Not sure I'd call Evan "Liberal" after he said he'd switch his vote to CPC if Poilievre had played Hot Wheels in Montreal. That's a paper-thin adherence at best.
Do you know what a joke is?
*munches on Laurentian sweets*
Snark aside, the Conservatives are not really in trouble. They are happy to be in Opposition, collecting the $100,000+ travel vouchers for the foreseeable future.
Poilievre is as unserious as it gets. The slogans, the obsession with crowd size, the weird racing thing, bringing in "Daddy" to help boost his cred, so many other things...he truly seems like a child lashing out at the big bad Laurentian Elites, except they (we...) don't really care about his gang, a gang that rarely wins elections, let alone majorities, because of their ill-fated ties to Alberta and portions of the prairies.
In the end, the Liberals likely settle around 160-176 seats, and either make an agreement with Ruth-Ellen Brosseau after she becomes NDP leader or with Blanchet while giving goodies to QC.
Either way, the Conservatives are interesting in the way localized tornado events can be, as long as they don't tear down your own communities.
I find it interesting that Franks’s polls have frequently looked “out there” when they are released and then 7-10 days later the poll averages are close to the same as the EKOS polls.
Calling Poilievre and his gang Tories is dated and incorrect. They may better be described as Reformercons.
I have zero sympathy for Pierre, C Proud, and all their shills
I can only pray
… and vote!
Due to First Past the Post there are so many Con votes concentrated in Sask and Alberta .
This system will deliver a Liberal Majority.
The one thing I have heard floated, and I would be curious to hear your thoughts on it, is the "What if this is a Hillary situation, polls show Carney winning but he ends up loosing on election day?"
On a similar thread there was Radio-Canada reporting out of the CPC rally with partisans being like "Of course he's gonna win, look at the crowd here, if he doesn't win this election is rigged" and so on (sigh... We're not out of the woods yet...)
So yeah. Is there a scenario where the polls are just... Wrong?
there isn’t really an example of the polls getting a federal election result wrong since like 1957…
the big polling fails recently were: BC 2013, NL 2019 and NS 2021.
the cons may do a point better than the polling says but that will be concentrated in rural alberta/sask
Interesting. Was there a common thread to the provincial polling failures?
Regional polls don't show individual ridings results. Thus, the provincial NDP held all their seats except one, as their MPPs were very popular. There was some close ones as Ontario Liberals pushed strategic voting, and almost allowed Cons to win those seats. A pollster apologized to Marit Stiles, and recognized the mistake. The NDP is the official opposition.
Thank you for this reassurance.
The big factor that's really hard to predict is if one party can actually get more people to show up and vote.