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I believe the slight Liberal uptick in Ontario is the Trump effect slowly kicking in. Canadian voters do not like him and somehow Poilièvre’s angry tone reminds them of him. Obviously the change in leadership, whoever wins that race, also influences early intentions. Just a few thoughts.

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I watched a video interview today with David Frum who highlighted the good & bad of Trudeau's reign. The one thing he said, and I tend to agree with him, is that he should have gone down with the ship given that he did not step down 12 - 18 months ago. In his view it will allow the new leader to reset the party and its policies. There is now no time to do so and the leader who will be chosen will inherit, and be tainted by, all of the baggage. Which will, in turn, spawn yet another leadership contest.

I don't want to see Poilievre in power. After reading the CPC (well, really the QPC) policy statement, there are no policies but there is a lot of motherhood statements. Putting a guy in power whose only job other than being a politician was a paperboy is just plain ridiculous. But, as I've said to my American friends, ultimately ya get the government ya deserve. A majority government, aka an elected dictatorship, under Poilievre will be as painful as what my American friends are going to endure.

Buckle up Canada....

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8hEdited

Correlation is not causation.

Something else happened in the last 7 days. Only in the past few days Canadians really start to realize what a Trump second term is going to be like. Do we want to be the 51st state? First ministers got together with some compelling visuals. Danielle Smith applying for the Benedict Arnold prize together with a drunken boater in white pyjamas. Potential Liberal leadership contenders stating that they are not running to focus on Frump. Doug Ford and his baseball cap. All of a sudden nobody cares about carbon tax anymore.

The governing party always increases support in the initial phase of a (trade) war. I believe that is what we are seeing here. Having said that, without a doubt this provides the Liberals with some desperately needed hope.

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