I think trump has trapped the conservatives and Pollievre the same way the woke stuff could trap the Liberals. Some of frank graves recent tweets might even hint at further trouble for the conservatives in the next little bit. A large chunk of their base supports trump(some vehemently). If frank graves hint is anywere near the actual number it's possible that nearly 50 percent of their base approvals of trump at the moment. Also some of the weird moves they have been making lately like announcing stuff that would acquise to trump's demands and telling the liberals to listen to them and that new slogan they announced makes me think that they know that they are stuck in a pickle. Pollievre has criticized the 51st state stuff and the tariffs but I don't think it has persuaded anyone. Pollievre hasn't sounded like a stateman either at times throughout this crisis which might hurt the conservative. The next move the conservative might make will likely come from that event later this week were they plan to wrap themselves around the canadian flag. Small chunks of the conservative base might not like that at all. The fundamentals in theory should favour the CPC still but I do wonder if trump has scrambled the race and exposed severe weakenesses with the CPC that are unlikely to be fixed before the election.
The problem is that how to react to Trump, and about Americans in general plays very differently in the different regions of Canada. Quite frankly, the Liberals aren't the party of the flag and of the Canadian sensibility out west like they are in English Canada back east.
There is a huge and widening delta between boomers and millennials as well in Canada, and I would love to see more numbers on that. I suspect the average age of each region has a lot to do with how much they have moved toward the Liberals.
Also, anti-Americanism in general isn't nearly as much a thing in say Alberta as it would be in Toronto. Also, I would love to see an immigrant versus 2nd generation versus longer breakdown, but we aren't going to get that.
Frank Graves is THE MAN. I followed him on Twitter and wish he would publish here. I deleted my Twitter account when Musk bought it and Frank’s account is one of the only things I miss.
Interesting to look back on this post 6 weeks later. EKOS has been the signal that has been verified by other pollsters, and I wonder if there is something to Frank’s methodology?
He is still tracking vaxx status because it correlates to other important attributes, and he weights his sample to make sure they are represented. I wonder if anyone else is doing that?
I do think his sampling and conclusions about “open” (small l liberal values) vs “ordered” (authoritarian populist views) holds water and replaces what used to be “left” and “right”. It would at least partially explain why the NDP support has collapsed in large measure.
This is all about Trump. PP isn't well liked and comes across as a dweeb. But there is a powerful sentiment in the country that it's time for a change.
Carney is "safe", but with time, he will be associated with the Liberal legacy of the last ten years and that desire for change will still be strong.
PP wins a majority if two things happen - (1) Trump doesn't scare the living hell out of us over the course of the election, and (2) Canadians trust that PP isn't a Trump acolyte deep down. PP has no control over #1 and limited control over #2.
It's only if Canadians think Trump is so dangerous and PP so untrustworthy that the Liberals could even hope to hold the Cons to a minority Parliament. That is depressing but true.
Well Trump is dangerous and Poilievre has been denigrating our country as weak and broken in much the same way espoused by the Manchurian Cantelope .I don't think a majority of Canadians really want to emulate America .
I think trump has trapped the conservatives and Pollievre the same way the woke stuff could trap the Liberals. Some of frank graves recent tweets might even hint at further trouble for the conservatives in the next little bit. A large chunk of their base supports trump(some vehemently). If frank graves hint is anywere near the actual number it's possible that nearly 50 percent of their base approvals of trump at the moment. Also some of the weird moves they have been making lately like announcing stuff that would acquise to trump's demands and telling the liberals to listen to them and that new slogan they announced makes me think that they know that they are stuck in a pickle. Pollievre has criticized the 51st state stuff and the tariffs but I don't think it has persuaded anyone. Pollievre hasn't sounded like a stateman either at times throughout this crisis which might hurt the conservative. The next move the conservative might make will likely come from that event later this week were they plan to wrap themselves around the canadian flag. Small chunks of the conservative base might not like that at all. The fundamentals in theory should favour the CPC still but I do wonder if trump has scrambled the race and exposed severe weakenesses with the CPC that are unlikely to be fixed before the election.
The problem is that how to react to Trump, and about Americans in general plays very differently in the different regions of Canada. Quite frankly, the Liberals aren't the party of the flag and of the Canadian sensibility out west like they are in English Canada back east.
There is a huge and widening delta between boomers and millennials as well in Canada, and I would love to see more numbers on that. I suspect the average age of each region has a lot to do with how much they have moved toward the Liberals.
Also, anti-Americanism in general isn't nearly as much a thing in say Alberta as it would be in Toronto. Also, I would love to see an immigrant versus 2nd generation versus longer breakdown, but we aren't going to get that.
Frank Graves is always worth paying attention to.
EKOS called me tonight asking who I plan on voting for. I told them! 😉
April 28th at 11PM
We should have an answer
I just checked
Ipsos
Ekos
Mainstreet
Abacus
Nanos
338
Everyone except Abacus has Liberals leading by 10 points and Carney by 15-20 points
Frank Graves is THE MAN. I followed him on Twitter and wish he would publish here. I deleted my Twitter account when Musk bought it and Frank’s account is one of the only things I miss.
Interesting to look back on this post 6 weeks later. EKOS has been the signal that has been verified by other pollsters, and I wonder if there is something to Frank’s methodology?
He is still tracking vaxx status because it correlates to other important attributes, and he weights his sample to make sure they are represented. I wonder if anyone else is doing that?
I do think his sampling and conclusions about “open” (small l liberal values) vs “ordered” (authoritarian populist views) holds water and replaces what used to be “left” and “right”. It would at least partially explain why the NDP support has collapsed in large measure.
This is all about Trump. PP isn't well liked and comes across as a dweeb. But there is a powerful sentiment in the country that it's time for a change.
Carney is "safe", but with time, he will be associated with the Liberal legacy of the last ten years and that desire for change will still be strong.
PP wins a majority if two things happen - (1) Trump doesn't scare the living hell out of us over the course of the election, and (2) Canadians trust that PP isn't a Trump acolyte deep down. PP has no control over #1 and limited control over #2.
It's only if Canadians think Trump is so dangerous and PP so untrustworthy that the Liberals could even hope to hold the Cons to a minority Parliament. That is depressing but true.
Well Trump is dangerous and Poilievre has been denigrating our country as weak and broken in much the same way espoused by the Manchurian Cantelope .I don't think a majority of Canadians really want to emulate America .