P.S. Evan, if you're reading the comments on your article here, go look over at r/canadapolitics polling thread right now. A certain Mr. C.F. McGee from Maclean's magazine appears to be making a subtle reference to you, lol.
Well, Angus Reid is just out and they're showing a tie in QC, surprise surprise their gambit worked. If anyone knows how to frame a leading question, it's a *pollster,* which is exactly why she should have not been allowed to host that debate. This was intentional sabotage meant to kill the LPC's chances of majority government, and it looks like they got it.
On another note, Quito Maggi is out with another... cryptic tweet saying something along the lines of what was once thought improbable is now probable. I'm one of those nervous Liberals who is dreading that what he's seeing is an increased chance of CPC minority, especially since he described a CPC government with that very word on his Twitter stream and this morning he appeared to waffle on his shot call of a Liberal win of some sort (minority most likely).
He also said that a Liberal win is "all but certain," and yet "all but" doesn't mean "certain." Considering the concerning drop in Ontario in the Mainstreet tracker over the past couple of days, that worries me even more than QC in Leger, as a last-minute Conservative gain in Ontario could mean the Liberals get shut out of government at all. What surprises me is that even the obvious anti-Liberal saboteurs at ARI aren't even seeing such tight margins in Ontario and I don't believe any other pollster is right now? I know what you've said about not taking polls at immediate face value, so I'm hoping that whatever he is seeing is little more than statistical noise.
Congrats on the bus missing!
P.S. Evan, if you're reading the comments on your article here, go look over at r/canadapolitics polling thread right now. A certain Mr. C.F. McGee from Maclean's magazine appears to be making a subtle reference to you, lol.
https://old.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/pqffe0/politics_polls_and_punditry_saturday_september_18/hdemgkg/
Well, Angus Reid is just out and they're showing a tie in QC, surprise surprise their gambit worked. If anyone knows how to frame a leading question, it's a *pollster,* which is exactly why she should have not been allowed to host that debate. This was intentional sabotage meant to kill the LPC's chances of majority government, and it looks like they got it.
On another note, Quito Maggi is out with another... cryptic tweet saying something along the lines of what was once thought improbable is now probable. I'm one of those nervous Liberals who is dreading that what he's seeing is an increased chance of CPC minority, especially since he described a CPC government with that very word on his Twitter stream and this morning he appeared to waffle on his shot call of a Liberal win of some sort (minority most likely).
He also said that a Liberal win is "all but certain," and yet "all but" doesn't mean "certain." Considering the concerning drop in Ontario in the Mainstreet tracker over the past couple of days, that worries me even more than QC in Leger, as a last-minute Conservative gain in Ontario could mean the Liberals get shut out of government at all. What surprises me is that even the obvious anti-Liberal saboteurs at ARI aren't even seeing such tight margins in Ontario and I don't believe any other pollster is right now? I know what you've said about not taking polls at immediate face value, so I'm hoping that whatever he is seeing is little more than statistical noise.