"The problem for the NDP isn’t just that ex-NDP voters fear Poilievre so they’ll vote Liberal tactically - they authentically really like Carney and don’t like Singh."
My first Canadian federal election was 1993, and it was a heartbreaker for an NDPer. The party couldn't even hold on to Trinity-Spadina, Dan Heap's longtime stronghold. I think the NDP won 8 or 9 seats that year, and got less than 10% of the vote.
This year figures to be even worse for the NDP. I'll be voting Liberal for the first time ever, and I am an NDP lifer, who has worked in at least half the campaigns I have voted in. At least half of my NDP friends will be doing the same. And I see that a number of people who in the past have held office for the NDP are running as Liberal candidates this time out.
Singh is hopelessly incompetent--and also tacky. I put up with his incompetence for years but when Justin Trudeau resigned and Singh didn't praise him for his achievements during their years of shared governance, or even wish him well for the future, that was the final straw. That was about as tacky as one could get. I could no longer support a party led by that man. From that moment forward, I would be supporting the Liberals in the federal election.
I want the Liberals to win a majority so that we don't have to worry about another election for four years. And I assume that the NDP will be dumping Singh right after the election. God knows it has taken them long enough. He should have been dumped four years ago. Once the NDP gets a new leader, and assuming the country returns to something approaching normalcy by 2029, I hope to again be able to support the NDP. I remain a socialist--CBC's Vote Compass tells me that--and the Liberals do not represent my values to any great extent. In particular, I disagree strongly with them on nuclear power, pipelines, and Indigenous issues. But we are now in a wartime, us vs. them situation, and we need someone who can beat Trump and his Canadian quisling surrogate, PP. That someone is Mark Carney. The thought of Jagmeet Singh as Prime Minister is enough to keep one up late at night. In my view, if you can't imagine your party leader as PM, you probably should not be voting for that party.
I live in Ontario, but even I know that the BC NDP and the Ontario NDP are not at all the same parties. The Federal NDP is something else entirely.
NDP partisans seem to want everyone to ignore the candidates, parliamentarians and leaders (all the humans involved) and stare at the colour of the team jerseys.
While there are many policies the NDP speak about that resonate with me (when they can remember if they are running Federally vs Provincially), the corporate culture turns me off entirely.
Just think – if the Federal NDP weren’t so tunnel-vision focused on the interests of their party, we would already have solved vote splitting and eradicated “strategic voting” via Single Transferrable Vote in time for the 2019 general election.
I think you’re overlooking a potential factor. A bunch of the vote swing is ABC. Now, most seats in the country have the Liberals in first or second, so a broad ABC swing is going to look like a Liberal swing nationally. It’s just a question of how much of the swing is specifically towards the Liberals, and how much is ABC.
If the total swing is 20%, and half of that is ABC, seats where the NDP get the ABC vote will pretty much cancel out.
Which isn’t to say the NDP isn’t in huge trouble. The sorts of seats where the Liberals were running only 10% behind them last election are in real danger. But in the seats where the Liberals were a distant third I think they’re going to pick up a lot less of the swing vote than strait swing would suggest
Probably what this means is that the shift won't be permanent, and that in a different election with a different context, many of the ABC voters would be returning to their traditional NDP moorings.
What has the Liberals petrified is that organized labour are leaving the NDP for the Conservative Party. Not the Liberals, who proved in the past few years to working people that they can’t be trusted. This is why we’re seeing Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh appearing every day with people in hard hats behind them. 😉 🇨🇦 🗳️
I'm not a Liberal, NDP, GPC, or PPC supporter, but that doesn't make me a CPC supporter. I can dislike all those parties, and recognize that none of them can represent me, even if I dislike some of those corporate entities more than others.
The current CPC is talking about things that need to be talked about, and that the other parties are ignoring (failure of neoliberalism -- a right-wing core policy for decades where a new-right movement is pushing in a direction that is closer to 1960's to 1990's progressives). But that does not make the CPC an answer to the problems.
The current CPC (really Reform) is merely lying to Canadians to claim they are filling a policy gap that the other parties have left open.
I wish we had STV already (ranked ballots, the only way to actually get rid of vote splitting and strategic voting -- party lists solve an entirely different problem).
The federal Reform and PC parties could reverse that hostile takeover and allow an actual Progressive Conservative movement to exist federally again.
"The problem for the NDP isn’t just that ex-NDP voters fear Poilievre so they’ll vote Liberal tactically - they authentically really like Carney and don’t like Singh."
100% This.
They don’t “fear Poilievre” as you claim - they fear the Liberal government of the last 10 years, and what will happen if they win again.
I was going to reply, but you're just a troll who missed the point. Block.
My first Canadian federal election was 1993, and it was a heartbreaker for an NDPer. The party couldn't even hold on to Trinity-Spadina, Dan Heap's longtime stronghold. I think the NDP won 8 or 9 seats that year, and got less than 10% of the vote.
This year figures to be even worse for the NDP. I'll be voting Liberal for the first time ever, and I am an NDP lifer, who has worked in at least half the campaigns I have voted in. At least half of my NDP friends will be doing the same. And I see that a number of people who in the past have held office for the NDP are running as Liberal candidates this time out.
Singh is hopelessly incompetent--and also tacky. I put up with his incompetence for years but when Justin Trudeau resigned and Singh didn't praise him for his achievements during their years of shared governance, or even wish him well for the future, that was the final straw. That was about as tacky as one could get. I could no longer support a party led by that man. From that moment forward, I would be supporting the Liberals in the federal election.
I want the Liberals to win a majority so that we don't have to worry about another election for four years. And I assume that the NDP will be dumping Singh right after the election. God knows it has taken them long enough. He should have been dumped four years ago. Once the NDP gets a new leader, and assuming the country returns to something approaching normalcy by 2029, I hope to again be able to support the NDP. I remain a socialist--CBC's Vote Compass tells me that--and the Liberals do not represent my values to any great extent. In particular, I disagree strongly with them on nuclear power, pipelines, and Indigenous issues. But we are now in a wartime, us vs. them situation, and we need someone who can beat Trump and his Canadian quisling surrogate, PP. That someone is Mark Carney. The thought of Jagmeet Singh as Prime Minister is enough to keep one up late at night. In my view, if you can't imagine your party leader as PM, you probably should not be voting for that party.
To be clear: the strategic voting websites recommended the Liberals in Humber River, even as some orgs did the opposite
I was mentally going off the NotOneSeat recs which I believe was NDP
Yes, exactly
NOS was saying NDP, but some of the strategic voting sites (which seemingly pull 338's data) were saying Liberal
Well thank God for NOS
I live in Ontario, but even I know that the BC NDP and the Ontario NDP are not at all the same parties. The Federal NDP is something else entirely.
NDP partisans seem to want everyone to ignore the candidates, parliamentarians and leaders (all the humans involved) and stare at the colour of the team jerseys.
While there are many policies the NDP speak about that resonate with me (when they can remember if they are running Federally vs Provincially), the corporate culture turns me off entirely.
Just think – if the Federal NDP weren’t so tunnel-vision focused on the interests of their party, we would already have solved vote splitting and eradicated “strategic voting” via Single Transferrable Vote in time for the 2019 general election.
https://r.flora.ca/p/not-ndp
A really interesting analysis! As far as the recent London dynamics in the Ontario election, I can say this is spot on.
Evan, saw a split-second screenshot of your account on the CBC in regards to the fake crowd numbers
I think you’re overlooking a potential factor. A bunch of the vote swing is ABC. Now, most seats in the country have the Liberals in first or second, so a broad ABC swing is going to look like a Liberal swing nationally. It’s just a question of how much of the swing is specifically towards the Liberals, and how much is ABC.
If the total swing is 20%, and half of that is ABC, seats where the NDP get the ABC vote will pretty much cancel out.
Which isn’t to say the NDP isn’t in huge trouble. The sorts of seats where the Liberals were running only 10% behind them last election are in real danger. But in the seats where the Liberals were a distant third I think they’re going to pick up a lot less of the swing vote than strait swing would suggest
Bigger swing in Vancouver than in BC as a whole … there’s at best two seats in Vancouver proper the CPC can win … nope
Personally, I’d kill for a bunch of riding level polls
Because those are so fucking bang on, see Bonnie Crombie up 13 and winning another seat in Mississauga and EgLaw but Tyler Watt losing in Nepean
Probably what this means is that the shift won't be permanent, and that in a different election with a different context, many of the ABC voters would be returning to their traditional NDP moorings.
100%. I think Canadians are pretty used to strategic voting.
If this is a swing or wave election, yes, even the NDP incumbents in B.C. are at risk.
Don in Kingsway is my friend. He's had a great run since 2004. Kwong next door as well.
What has the Liberals petrified is that organized labour are leaving the NDP for the Conservative Party. Not the Liberals, who proved in the past few years to working people that they can’t be trusted. This is why we’re seeing Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh appearing every day with people in hard hats behind them. 😉 🇨🇦 🗳️
That is one theory of what is going on, but not what I've seen at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxzmJ2qLMg8
I'm not a Liberal, NDP, GPC, or PPC supporter, but that doesn't make me a CPC supporter. I can dislike all those parties, and recognize that none of them can represent me, even if I dislike some of those corporate entities more than others.
The current CPC is talking about things that need to be talked about, and that the other parties are ignoring (failure of neoliberalism -- a right-wing core policy for decades where a new-right movement is pushing in a direction that is closer to 1960's to 1990's progressives). But that does not make the CPC an answer to the problems.
The current CPC (really Reform) is merely lying to Canadians to claim they are filling a policy gap that the other parties have left open.
I wish we had STV already (ranked ballots, the only way to actually get rid of vote splitting and strategic voting -- party lists solve an entirely different problem).
The federal Reform and PC parties could reverse that hostile takeover and allow an actual Progressive Conservative movement to exist federally again.
https://r.flora.ca/p/why-i-dont-consider-what-most-call
Is your name really Mike Canary?