Running On Empty: The NDP Leadership Race, Vol. 1

Contenders And Pretenders

The NDP Leadership race is going to be one of this site’s most reliable sources of content in the coming months, so it’s probably time to start this site’s coverage of it. So, let’s introduce Running On Empty: The NDP Leadership Race, what will hopefully be the most comprehensive coverage of this race anywhere.

Obviously, the party’s problems start with the leadership but don’t end there. That said, let’s have some fun, cast a wide net, and rank the field of contenders, pretenders, and never gonna even bothers, including every caucus member and more.

Definitely Not Running

Don Davies (MP, Vancouver-Kingsway)

I would assume that a condition of him taking the Interim Leadership was that he can’t then run, so safe to rule out the Kingsway Poll Denier.

Wab Kinew (Premier Of Manitoba)

Wab has ruled out running for the leadership, and while it’s understandable that New Democrats would look at him as a saviour, it makes no sense for Kinew to take this one now. If he wanted to take the party over in a couple terms, wanting a new challenge, then maybe. I don’t know if he even would - his past personal failures would become a significantly bigger problem as a national figure than as the Premier of a midsized province. Either way, with the … shambolic, let’s just say, state of the Manitoba PCs, he’s Premier for as long as he wants to be. He’s not giving that up to beg the Ottawa press gallery to cover some press statement that should be a Commons speech if he had a seat.

Lori Idlout (MP, Nunavut)

This is possibly strong to say definitely not but being the MP for such a broad and vast territory isn’t a part time job and I can’t see Idlout wanting to be away from Nunavut the amount it would take to be leader, let alone anyone in the party thinking it’d be a good idea.

If They Were Going To Run They’d Have Done It By Now

Jenny Kwan (MP, Vancouver East)

Kwan has been an elected official basically continuously since 1993. She took down Carole James and didn’t run then, she didn’t run when she was one of two NDP MLAs after 2001, and she didn’t run for it then. I’m not expecting anything now.

Should Run, Probably Won’t

Gord Johns (MP, Courtney-Alberni)

One of the great survivors of the last election, Johns has never struck me as much of a national figure. He’s a clearly popular local figure who would benefit the party greatly as a leader. He understands the NDP’s crisis in working class areas, he’d be a distinctive New Democratic voice, and at a time when the NDP only have 3 seats of 343 where they’re within 10% of a Liberal incumbent, the wisdom of a revival that focuses on winning LPC voters is lacking.

That said, Johns would have some of the least national name recognition of any leader of an allegedly national and allegedly major political party in a long time. This could be typecasting and if he decides to run I’ll be thrilled, but I just don’t see a world where his profile of MP does. He is the NDP’s Cuzner, and that’s a great compliment coming from a Liberal. But I don’t see him running.

Alexandre Boulerice (MP, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie)

I’ve always been a fan of Boulerice, but I think his career in Federal politics is winding down. There have been rumours he might run for Mayor of Montreal now that Valerie Plante’s not running again, but it looks like the window for the two step has been missed. There’s a Quebec election next year, and with the male co-Spokesman job at Quebec Solidaire open right now, it’s not hard to see how that could be a more sensible move for Boulerice, especially since a provincial seat held by QS is open for him to take if he wants it.

Shouldn’t Run, Might Anyways

Leah Gazan (MP, Winnipeg Centre)

Gazan is a fine candidate in her own right, which is to say that the case against her relies less on her being terrible and more on her being the second best option in her own lane. Plainly, I don’t see what will make her pitch any more distinctive than Heather MacPherson’s, and MacPherson is higher profile and, at least in my experience, a better communicator. If MacPherson decides not to run, Gazan jumps into the top tier, but I don’t think she can beat Heather.

Matt Green (Former MP, Hamilton Centre)

Peter Julien (Former MP, New Westminster-Burnaby)

Niki Ashton (Former MP, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski)

I have no idea if any of these three in specific will run, but there’s a whole class of prominent New Democrats who have either run for leader before (Julien, Ashton) or were very obviously going to run this time (Green) who lost their seats. Somebody who lost in April is going to look at this field and decide to run, in all likelihood, and it’s going to be a mistake.

Green’s pissed too many people off in Hamilton with his strident support of Sarah Jama and he came third in his own seat, Peter Julien tried to run once and got no traction, and Ashton’s got more scandals and moments of terrible judgement than we can count. More broadly, the 2025 losers caucus will represent Singh-era continuity and it’ll be very hard to gain traction.

Outsiders With A Shot (If They Run)

Valerie Plante (Mayor of Montreal)

Plante would have been aided if the NDP had a dumb and bad points system like the rest of the country’s parties, but she is a high profile politician with executive experience who is leaving office without a major corruption scandal and seemingly decent approvals. I don’t think she’s a top tier contender because of the people above her, but she’s got a real shot if the party wants someone with no ties to the Singh era without having to go to the moderate lane. And if I’m right and Boulerice isn’t long for Federal politics, there’s a seat there for the taking.

Charlie Angus (Former MP, Timmins-James Bay)

Angus retired from the Commons this year, and there’s a very real disaster of trying to find him a seat again with the redrawn Northern Ontario lines and the complete NDP collapse, but he clearly doesn’t think he’s done in public life. His appearances on US TV and his general increased public persona is a sign he still has fight left. And because he retired, he doesn’t have the Singh Stink of being a loser on him even though he very obviously was going to get fucked worse than an OF star trying to break a record.

I don’t really think Angus can win - the lack of an even half plausible seat is a huge problem - but at some point I need a candidate of the NDP’s regional wing and I can’t come up with a better name. (If Taylor Bachrach had won, he’d be the better name, but there’s no sense he has national ambitions.)

Top Tier Contenders

3. Rachel Notley (Former Premier of Alberta)

Notley showed up at the Speech From The Throne after a big appearance during the campaign, her first particularly notable appearances since stepping down as Alberta NDP leader. She’s obviously a very good politician, and would easily be the best general election option for the NDP. I’ve got my irritants with Notley - namely her 2023 campaign which could have been a lot better than it was if she had fucking listened to me (and Max and others) and realized her campaign wasn’t connecting - but that’s a fight about how to get from 44% to 47% in Alberta. She can get the NDP back to 20% and win back Hamilton, Windsor, London, Powell River, and Skeena.

Her time as Alberta Premier will play well in the places where the NDP lost seats - she’s a moderate who can credibly say she supports the energy industry but takes climate seriously, she fought with lefty interests in BC about pipelines, and she has plenty of the correct enemies in the NDP and the broad left to show she’s truly a different kind of New Democrat. There’s a plausible seat for her in Edmonton Griesbach, and she is the best candidate in a general election. It’s logical.

Too logical.

The NDP membership aren’t smart enough to pick Notley. They really fucking should, but they won’t. Her condemnation of the Leap Manifesto and her insufficiently robust agenda in government will hang around her, and they’ll pick someone more leftwing and way worse for the general. I hope I’m wrong. There’s no way I am.

2. Avi Lewis (Former NDP Candidate, various seats)

One of the authors of the Leap Manifesto, Lewis is NDP royalty - son of former ONDP leader Stephen and grandson of former NDP leader David - but unfortunately one of the stupidest people in Canada. His pie-in-the-sky leftism is the exact thing we don’t need any more of, but it’s the kind of nonsense we know NDP members like. He’s already launched a critique of Singh’s leadership for being insufficiently committed to ideals, and it’s clear he wants to run. Given the Liberals’ dropping of the carbon tax, there’s room for a staunch environmentalist in Canadian politics, and that’s the lane he wants to fill.

The problems with Lewis are clear - there’s no idea of how he’d pay for any of his big ambitions, no understanding of practical realities his transformative politics would face, and no realization that he’s indulging Trump-level delusions. It is impossible to have your cake and eat it too, but not in Avi’s world.

The one reason I think he’s going to lose is he’s been a bad electoral candidate in both his runs. He took the NDP vote backwards by a robust 17% in Vancouver Centre this year, falling to third - a mediocre result in a vacuum that becomes a disaster when you remember he was touted as a star candidate. In West Van in 2021, he ate the majority of the Green vote but still finished third, before cutting and running downtown despite a slightly NDP-friendly redraw of West Van.

The other question I don’t have an answer to is how much the NDP membership cares about climate change, given they’ve swallowed rollbacks to the policy in BC and federally willingly. But he’s clearly a top tier contender and a real challenger.

1 Heather MacPherson (MP, Edmonton-Strathcona)

It’s flippant and disrespectful to make the statement I’m about to make without caveats, so let’s go there. What is happening in Gaza is morally reprehensible, completely and utterly unacceptable, and while I’m not a lawyer and so don’t want to opine on whether it is genocide, if it doesn’t by some technicality qualify it fucking should. With that said, MacPherson’s favoured to win this race in large part because Gaza has taken a lot of the progressive energy that used to go towards fighting climate change is now focused on Palestinian rights.

MacPherson has been a staunch advocate for Palestine in the Commons, leading the fight for and getting the government to vote with them on a motion condemning Israel’s actions and calling for a Palestinian state. MacPherson has the closest thing to gravitas anybody in the NDP caucus possesses, and she’s their best communicator. She straddles the line between being to Singh’s left and not being Lewis level insane, and she’s heavily associated with the animating issue for much of the party right now.

I don’t think she’s a solution to their problems. I think she’s next up, and she will be their next leader.

(As we ramp up coverage of the Carney era, national unity threats in Alberta and Quebec, and attempt to use whatever influence I have to influence this new government, consider a paid subscription. All work will remain free but a paid subscription is a way to support my work and enable me to continue to do what I love.)