You opened with Durham so I'm going to address Durham. Jamil Jivani was parachuted into a 20-year conservative stronghold he was guaranteed to win, so there is zero about that byelection that is a surprise or a prediction about a general election. Jamil, with Poilievre's help, destroyed any legacy of decency Durham had and is the final snub of Erin O'Toole, whom Poilievre moved to his back bench as soon as Poilievre ascended to the leadership. (He also froze out Rempel and Fast.) Jamil did not attend the all-candidates debate and he has a history of being fired for his blatant bigotry. Like Leslyn Lewis, Jamil trolls black people, even though he is one. Poilievre could have parachuted anyone in there and he picked a scumbag because that scumbag helped him win the leadership and reflects the far right populism Poilievre embraces now.
I agree the Liberals are in trouble but I'm uncertain to what degree the majority of Canadians will be swindled by the Trumpy populist Poilievre is. I fear most aren't reading his stupid tweets and will sleepwalk their way to giving the asshole power. Rest assured, Poilievre has no talent in his useless caucus...he has shoved any talent he has off the front bench and elevated social conservative dipshits. Those idiots will make up his cabinet. Like most people, I too am weary of the incumbent party and yes they have problems but none of their problems add up to PP being a solution or better. HE'S WORSE. MUCH MUCH WORSE. And his party has a history of corruption, suppression, election fraud and abusing money. Much much more fiscal abuse than the Liberals and adscam. What's more, the polls showing conservatives ahead were seen in 2019 and 2021. If you revisit the news from those elections, both Scheer and O'Toole were predicted winners. So who knows. PP could very well win but could he secure a majority? He needs absolute power to survive as a governing party because he doesn't get along with anybody. If he gets a minority he won't survive being the Poilievre he is today, he will need the support of the opposition parties. But if he wins a majority, say goodbye to social programs, any attention to climate change, and understand your life will become much more expensive as he guts the social safety net.
For me the most interesting part is the turn out. 28% this time, 35% in 2011. It would seem to indicated that the constant campaigning by the CPC in the past 18 months has not increased the enthusiasm much. It has not caused more CPC voters to actually vote, nor has it motivated the Liberal voters to care much either.
While the Jenni Byrne will be happy to take the win, and Poilievre indeed does not appear to be a liability (yet), it probably has her worried that not more people wanted to send a message to Trudeau.
Having said that, anybody saying that the Liberals will do better than the polls is delusional.
Durham has voted for the conservative party for the last 20 years. Jamil was guaranteed the win. Poilievre could have parachuted a potato in there and the potato would win. The sad part is he parachuted a dud and erased any legacy of decency Erin O'Toole created in Durham. If Erin O'Toole had campaigned for Jamil, the turnout might have been better but O'Toole refused to help him...what does that tell you?
It does not tell me very much, other than that Erin O’Toole does not like Pierre and Jamil.
The Liberals put an effort in and it did not move the needle at all. Maybe it moved the needle in the opposite direction. That should give some pause for thought.
Agree with your broad points. However, this byelection win was in a rather safe Cons riding. Not very telling.
More intriguing is the newly elected MP: as a "star" candidate, how will Jamil Jivani affect the CPC? What will his role be in their caucus? I'd love to see media shine more light on Poilievre's front bench.
We all need to hear more about what's on offer, and how they want to change Canada.
How will Poilievre's policies affect me?
The onus is squarely on the Liberals and NDP to fill in the answers to that fundamental question.
Erin O'Toole was a star and Erin O'Toole refused to help Jamil campaign. That should be a red flag for Tory voters who aren't aligned with the radical right.
I’m kind of stuck on how the Liberals can do *anything* to make things better.
I liked your idea about Anand until the ArriveCAN scandal hit, as I have trouble squaring the notion of awesomely competent Procurement Minister with DND employee selling his services to the government via a number of companies. (Yeah, I know it was crazy times, but Liberals get no benefit of the doubt anymore for anything.) If Anand is tainted, and Fraser can’t be spared from housing, and the PMO can’t get out of their own way anymore, who’s left to be competent?
Is it possible that the next 18 months (or however long it is before Singh qualifies for his parliamentary pension) will be just a stream of Liberal judicial and patronage appointments, followed by the inevitable Poilevre wave? And more to the point, that happens because the PMO knows it’s coming?
I have one more thing to add about Durham. In 2021, 61% of Durham's electorate turned up. In the byelection, 28% voted. I believe the low turnout was unprecedented for Durham. In any case, while Postmedia et al clung to "a wide margin of victory" and left out the turnout statistic. Durham Region News didn't spin. Their March 5 headline read, "Minority of voters cast majority of ballots for Tories". Today, they've revised the headline to, "How many voters cast a vote in the Durham Riding byelection? Turnout of 32,000 was 35,000 less than 2021 vote".
Jamil's majority win is based on 12.5% of the Durham electorate, a worse outcome than Doug Ford, whose majority is based on 19% of Ontario's electorate. My hunch is that the 20-year conservative stronghold wanted a conservative but couldn't stomach voting for Jamil so they stayed home. It could also be that by-elections are snooze fests in safe ridings and nobody cared or everybody expected another conservative to win. But conservatives tend to turn up, they tend to not be apathetic. Jamil trolled Erin O'Toole - whose riding he inherited, and on Jamil's first day as an MP he trolled his old employer Doug Ford. It seems Jamil is the leopard nobody sees coming even when his spots are evident.
You opened with Durham so I'm going to address Durham. Jamil Jivani was parachuted into a 20-year conservative stronghold he was guaranteed to win, so there is zero about that byelection that is a surprise or a prediction about a general election. Jamil, with Poilievre's help, destroyed any legacy of decency Durham had and is the final snub of Erin O'Toole, whom Poilievre moved to his back bench as soon as Poilievre ascended to the leadership. (He also froze out Rempel and Fast.) Jamil did not attend the all-candidates debate and he has a history of being fired for his blatant bigotry. Like Leslyn Lewis, Jamil trolls black people, even though he is one. Poilievre could have parachuted anyone in there and he picked a scumbag because that scumbag helped him win the leadership and reflects the far right populism Poilievre embraces now.
I agree the Liberals are in trouble but I'm uncertain to what degree the majority of Canadians will be swindled by the Trumpy populist Poilievre is. I fear most aren't reading his stupid tweets and will sleepwalk their way to giving the asshole power. Rest assured, Poilievre has no talent in his useless caucus...he has shoved any talent he has off the front bench and elevated social conservative dipshits. Those idiots will make up his cabinet. Like most people, I too am weary of the incumbent party and yes they have problems but none of their problems add up to PP being a solution or better. HE'S WORSE. MUCH MUCH WORSE. And his party has a history of corruption, suppression, election fraud and abusing money. Much much more fiscal abuse than the Liberals and adscam. What's more, the polls showing conservatives ahead were seen in 2019 and 2021. If you revisit the news from those elections, both Scheer and O'Toole were predicted winners. So who knows. PP could very well win but could he secure a majority? He needs absolute power to survive as a governing party because he doesn't get along with anybody. If he gets a minority he won't survive being the Poilievre he is today, he will need the support of the opposition parties. But if he wins a majority, say goodbye to social programs, any attention to climate change, and understand your life will become much more expensive as he guts the social safety net.
Yet voters can’t get that in their thick heads, what we lose under Pierre Poilievre. I will vote liberals any-day over these scandalous conservatives.
For me the most interesting part is the turn out. 28% this time, 35% in 2011. It would seem to indicated that the constant campaigning by the CPC in the past 18 months has not increased the enthusiasm much. It has not caused more CPC voters to actually vote, nor has it motivated the Liberal voters to care much either.
While the Jenni Byrne will be happy to take the win, and Poilievre indeed does not appear to be a liability (yet), it probably has her worried that not more people wanted to send a message to Trudeau.
Having said that, anybody saying that the Liberals will do better than the polls is delusional.
Durham has voted for the conservative party for the last 20 years. Jamil was guaranteed the win. Poilievre could have parachuted a potato in there and the potato would win. The sad part is he parachuted a dud and erased any legacy of decency Erin O'Toole created in Durham. If Erin O'Toole had campaigned for Jamil, the turnout might have been better but O'Toole refused to help him...what does that tell you?
It does not tell me very much, other than that Erin O’Toole does not like Pierre and Jamil.
The Liberals put an effort in and it did not move the needle at all. Maybe it moved the needle in the opposite direction. That should give some pause for thought.
Agree with your broad points. However, this byelection win was in a rather safe Cons riding. Not very telling.
More intriguing is the newly elected MP: as a "star" candidate, how will Jamil Jivani affect the CPC? What will his role be in their caucus? I'd love to see media shine more light on Poilievre's front bench.
We all need to hear more about what's on offer, and how they want to change Canada.
How will Poilievre's policies affect me?
The onus is squarely on the Liberals and NDP to fill in the answers to that fundamental question.
Erin O'Toole was a star and Erin O'Toole refused to help Jamil campaign. That should be a red flag for Tory voters who aren't aligned with the radical right.
I’m kind of stuck on how the Liberals can do *anything* to make things better.
I liked your idea about Anand until the ArriveCAN scandal hit, as I have trouble squaring the notion of awesomely competent Procurement Minister with DND employee selling his services to the government via a number of companies. (Yeah, I know it was crazy times, but Liberals get no benefit of the doubt anymore for anything.) If Anand is tainted, and Fraser can’t be spared from housing, and the PMO can’t get out of their own way anymore, who’s left to be competent?
Is it possible that the next 18 months (or however long it is before Singh qualifies for his parliamentary pension) will be just a stream of Liberal judicial and patronage appointments, followed by the inevitable Poilevre wave? And more to the point, that happens because the PMO knows it’s coming?
I have one more thing to add about Durham. In 2021, 61% of Durham's electorate turned up. In the byelection, 28% voted. I believe the low turnout was unprecedented for Durham. In any case, while Postmedia et al clung to "a wide margin of victory" and left out the turnout statistic. Durham Region News didn't spin. Their March 5 headline read, "Minority of voters cast majority of ballots for Tories". Today, they've revised the headline to, "How many voters cast a vote in the Durham Riding byelection? Turnout of 32,000 was 35,000 less than 2021 vote".
Jamil's majority win is based on 12.5% of the Durham electorate, a worse outcome than Doug Ford, whose majority is based on 19% of Ontario's electorate. My hunch is that the 20-year conservative stronghold wanted a conservative but couldn't stomach voting for Jamil so they stayed home. It could also be that by-elections are snooze fests in safe ridings and nobody cared or everybody expected another conservative to win. But conservatives tend to turn up, they tend to not be apathetic. Jamil trolled Erin O'Toole - whose riding he inherited, and on Jamil's first day as an MP he trolled his old employer Doug Ford. It seems Jamil is the leopard nobody sees coming even when his spots are evident.
Oh they can deny. Probably one of the only things they’re good at. “The story in the Globe & Mail is false”…their expiry date is up. ✌🏻