#ScrimshawSix: Ontario Thoughts

I Have #Taeks

The department of motifs is still on vacation (also, I’ve pre-written 2 different NHL Playoff articles for the good lads at TheLines today), so let’s just get to the point.

Should Liberals Freak Out About Mainstreet?/Was Your Column Last Week Wrong?

Short answer: no to both.

Long answer: No, and no, but Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet, wasn’t wrong to lightly chide me for it.

Last week, I wrote that Mainstreet, which then showed a 14% lead for the PCs and the Liberals hovering around 25% of the vote, which was pretty off base of Abacus and Ipsos’ releases of 32% the same day. Plainly, I didn’t then, nor now, believe that the OLP is so low, and I feel fine saying so.

The PCs at 40% I thought was less crazy, but it’s still a shock to see a 14% lead against Abacus’ 4% lead and Ipsos’ 3%, and I wrote it. Quito wasn’t a fan, mostly because he doesn’t think a single poll result can be wrong. On some level, he’s not wrong – for a phone pollster, volatile results are common, and picking on what looks like an outlier is probably unfair on my part. It’s also worth mentioning that the phone pollsters kicked the ass of the online pollsters in 2018, although I’ll add that the online pollsters didn’t lose their fucking minds in August 2021.

Now, Mainstreet looks closer to right – or, at least, they’re in the range where I can start to believe the results again. An 8% lead and the OLP at 30% is perfectly reasonable, even if I think it’s a little low. Like, me thinking it’s a little low is guesswork, not analysis, but within a range of plausible I won’t quibble. Mainstreet are a volatile pollster, and they’ve been especially volatile in recent weeks. Don’t take them as gospel if at some point soon they show a Liberal lead when nobody else does, because that will probably happen. I’ll still call balls and strikes when I think a pollster’s results are wild, but it’s worth remembering this as we get a daily tracker from them.

And, if nothing else, a company willing to poll as much as they are is a valuable public service, so, love you, Quito.

Is The NDP Dying?

All hail Comrade Horwath, killer of the Ontario NDP, 1st of her name.

Holy fucking shit the NDP are having a horrible campaign, and the problem for them is they’re on the cusp of the floor completely falling apart. There was a tier of 12 seats the NDP were pretty likely to lose, and for a while, they were stuck on 28 seats, not doing badly enough to lose their core seats. And now, the floor is completely falling out on them.

Right now, I have them on 23 seats (I know my tweet yesterday said 24, I didn’t notice the Liberals took the lead in Kitchener Centre), but the thing is, there’s another half dozen seats within 3% on my current projections, especially the rash of downtown Toronto seats. It’s a disaster for the party, but it’s a Godsend for the Liberals, who now really get to run a straight head to head campaign with the PCs.

Andrea Horwath has had 13 years to lead this party and she has failed to build on their best moment. Fortunately, her uselessness is at least making it easier for the Liberals to beat Ford, so that’s good. But as always, the NDP are failing because their definition of success is just weak sauce, and now they’re going back to third. Don’t let your ass hit you on the way out.

Where’s The Next Tier Of Liberal Gains?

I’ve got the PCs right now on 56 seats, which is 7 less than they need and still pretty close to the mark. It wouldn’t take much to see the PCs back into majority government, and it wouldn’t take much to see the Liberals pass them in seats. I’m less interested in going around and around on the same 12 majority deciding seats – it’s Mississauga, Brampton, and Scarborough – but one question that I haven’t looked at is what Liberal seats 45-60 look like.

It's a weird combination of GTA suburban marginals, like Willowdale, Vaughan-Woodbridge, and Scarborough North, the downtown Toronto Liberal-NDP battles which are utterly useless in terms of the PC totals, it’s suburban Ottawa, and it’s Kitchener.

The thing is, in the tactical voting guide, I recommended the Liberals give the NDP clean runs in Kitcheners Conestoga and South-Hespeler, but now I have the Liberals ahead of the NDP in second in both. If the NDP is going to be in the low 20s province wide, the Liberals actually become the tactical vote in Kitchener, which they weren’t a month ago or whenever I wrote that column.

On Ottawa, there are three suburban seats the Liberals want to win off the Tories – Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, and Ottawa West-Nepean. The Liberals will win OWN, that’s baked in. If they win either or both of the other two, Ford’s probably not even winning the most seats. I have both slightly PC right now, but if they flip, Ford’s fucked.

Will The Budget Move The Polls?

What percentage of people do you think know there was a provincial budget this week?

Seriously, give me a number, because whatever it is, it’s too high.

The politically aware love wondering if non-events will move the polls. They won’t, because nobody knows they’re happening. Calm down.

What’s Your Prediction For June 2nd?

I think something like the current polls is where we’re going to end up – I know the Liberals can do better than this, but I think Ford just short of a majority, and a messy fight on the floor of the Legislature that ends with Steven Del Duca leading some form of non-majority government, in some form.

Should Liberals Panic?

New rule – before Liberals are allowed to panic towards me, or in my mentions, or my DMs, you must buy me a bottle of rum. No, there’s no reason to panic, and when I start to panic I’ll tell you. The Liberals are in a fine spot right now.

Bonus announcement: I’m going to be doing daily NHL game previews for every game of the Stanley Cup playoffs over at TheLines in May, so two things: 1) read those, if you care about hockey/the Leafs and 2) if I’m a little slower to update this site, that’s probably why – my focus is gonna be a little split. Please forgive in advance.