I know this article and most of your stuff is Federal, but why isn’t there more discussion in general about how the Liberals basically no longer have a functioning provincial arm of their party? They’re 3rd or even 4th everywhere outside of the Atlantic provinces.
Should that be taken as a sign that the Liberal Party is functionally hollow? One or two bad elections from a similar collapse Federally?
I think that conversation gets interesting the second the Federal NDP get a leader who isn't plainly unqualified, because Jagmeet really is the guarantor of Liberal dominance on the centre/centre-left
That’s a really good point. I think there’s an argument to be made that, along with the PC-Reform vote split, the resurgence of prairie provincial Liberal Parties in the late 1980s played a role in the Chrétien Liberals breaking through in BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta (well, Edmonton) in 1993.
And it wasn’t that long ago that the Federal Liberals could count on votes and volunteering from Provincial NDP supporters when elections rolled around. I’m not sure that’s true any more, at least in any meaningful numbers.
Two evolving stories these days. First, the economy. I agree that, if ther next election is called for 2024 or 2025, inflation likely will not be an issue. But that is, in part, because the world economy is projected to do poorly, for 2024 at any rate, and probably 2025 as well. Canada is unlikely to be a holdout, so it is possible that unemployment and some level of fiscal restraint (austerity?) will be on the table by then.
Second, Chinese interference in Canadian politics. It seems to me that the Liberals are kicking that can down the road, with various delay tactics. That might work -- public memory is short and attention spans fickle. But this thing still has the possibility of blowing up at the end of this year or even the beginning of 2025. It all depends on whether the Liberals will be forced into a public inquiry, and if so, whether they lose control at that point.
“…or, in places where the Liberals are 3rd”
I know this article and most of your stuff is Federal, but why isn’t there more discussion in general about how the Liberals basically no longer have a functioning provincial arm of their party? They’re 3rd or even 4th everywhere outside of the Atlantic provinces.
Should that be taken as a sign that the Liberal Party is functionally hollow? One or two bad elections from a similar collapse Federally?
I think that conversation gets interesting the second the Federal NDP get a leader who isn't plainly unqualified, because Jagmeet really is the guarantor of Liberal dominance on the centre/centre-left
That’s a really good point. I think there’s an argument to be made that, along with the PC-Reform vote split, the resurgence of prairie provincial Liberal Parties in the late 1980s played a role in the Chrétien Liberals breaking through in BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta (well, Edmonton) in 1993.
And it wasn’t that long ago that the Federal Liberals could count on votes and volunteering from Provincial NDP supporters when elections rolled around. I’m not sure that’s true any more, at least in any meaningful numbers.
What about BC?
Thanks for the analysis.
Two evolving stories these days. First, the economy. I agree that, if ther next election is called for 2024 or 2025, inflation likely will not be an issue. But that is, in part, because the world economy is projected to do poorly, for 2024 at any rate, and probably 2025 as well. Canada is unlikely to be a holdout, so it is possible that unemployment and some level of fiscal restraint (austerity?) will be on the table by then.
Second, Chinese interference in Canadian politics. It seems to me that the Liberals are kicking that can down the road, with various delay tactics. That might work -- public memory is short and attention spans fickle. But this thing still has the possibility of blowing up at the end of this year or even the beginning of 2025. It all depends on whether the Liberals will be forced into a public inquiry, and if so, whether they lose control at that point.