Should Trudeau Resign?

On A Question Of Leadership

Let’s have a quick pop quiz, shall we? How many people reading this instinctively know what street I am referring to if I were to say Dorchester? The other test would be how many of you are confident you know the distinction between someone identifying as a Quebecer and identifying as Quebecois?

I know this seems like a fairly random test, but to Quebec, these points of language matter. Ask someone in Anna Gainey’s riding whether you should just take Rene Levesque Boulevard to the Bell Centre and you’ll be looked at as if you had just admitted to a crime. Mix up the difference between Quebecer and Quebecois in Steven Guilbeault’s seat, and you’ll be pelted with smoked meat sandwiches.

The truth about Quebec is that what it wants more than autonomy or cash from the Federal government is to be understood. There’s a reason the Liberals did better in the province in 2008 than they did in 2006 despite going backwards everywhere else – under Dion, the province felt more understood than under Martin. It’s the same reason Trudeau did well there in 2015 despite being willing to say that he opposed banning face coverings at citizenship services and in the public service. Quebec wants to be pandered to, sure – but they can sense a phony a mile away.

The fight about whether to get rid of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader has been brewing, and the incredibly crap results in Durham earlier this week are sure to reignite them. I don’t have a strong opinion for Trudeau staying on in a vacuum – I’m plainly too much of a pragmatist to care that he wants to fight again. What does interest me is whether there’s actually a better candidate for the job, and one who can fit a very specific criteria – any theoretical Liberal leader has to get Quebec, and I don’t know who this magical person is.

Friend of this site Max Fawcett has made the case for Mark Carney, and I disagree. That said, it is Max, who I have declared the best writer in Canada before, so it’s worth thinking through. But Carney has never shown he understands Quebec at the level needed to pull this off. And frankly? Everyone else you might run doesn’t really have a case to getting Quebec either, even the Quebecers.

Marc Miller is trying to avoid reducing immigration levels as much as possible despite the clear will of the country to do so, Sean Fraser is too green to run and also faces the slight complication of being in a marginal seat he needs to defend with a young family, Chrystia Freeland is a walking gaffe everytime she gets interviewed, and while I think my choice would be Anita Anand she’s also in a tough seat. I mean, you could go with Champagne, but I highly doubt the Liberal caucus or membership view the solution to holding Saint John or Burlington FPC.

If I were advising Carney, I’d tell him to go give a speech in Montreal to a bilingual crowd, in both languages, and talk up your deep, abiding love for Quebecois culture and Quebec as a whole, and then I’d go to the Gazette and wax poetic about the glory of Quebec being in both the strength of the majority but also the greatness of the Anglo minority. Carney needs a test run at this, because whatever you think of his intellect he’s never shown he can handle the subtlety that’s needed to run a campaign that Quebec will respond to.

The only place the Liberal vote is even remotely holding up is Quebec, where even as the CPC have bested them in both Leger and this week’s Nanos, the Liberals have been surviving. The Liberals are somehow managing to survive decently in the province, even as they crumble everywhere else. Any credible plan to replace Trudeau has to include both how to make back ground in (mostly) Ontario but also how they propose not alienating a core part of the Liberal vote.

Do I think Trudeau should step down? I don’t know, because to ask that question in a vacuum is really tough. The last time I talked about Joe Biden’s chances of re-election, on Politics Politics Politics, my answer essentially came back to the same place. If not Joe, then who? My feelings on Trudeau are similar.

The notion of “someone else” is always more popular than the actual options on the table. In the same vein, candidates are more popular as theoretical candidates than they are as actual ones. Everything is possible when you’re comparing to an existent leader, but at the end of the day most of the people who were supposed great successors ended up missing the moment or running shit campaigns when they did run. Think about how Jean Charest was talked about when he announced he was running, versus his pathetic performance in the actual 2022 Conservative leadership race. Or, to continue a theme, remember Peter MacKay – always tipped as the future, but never actually good enough.

Anyone who claims to know for sure what the Liberals should do about their leadership is lying. Carney might be an answer, or he might be exacerbate the Liberals’ elitism problem and also crater them in Quebec. It might also save 45 seats in Ontario and BC to the point where it’s worth it even barring whatever in Quebec. Sticking with Trudeau might save Quebec and he might turn it back in Ontario and the Atlantic. It might also end in ruin. I feel fairly confident Freeland isn’t the answer, but that doesn’t actually tell us what is.

At the end of the day, my concern remains Quebec. It feels easier to get the Liberal vote back in Ontario and Atlantic Canada back under Trudeau – some rate cuts, a good budget or two, some rent assistance – then it does to convince Quebec that someone else will understand the province in a way that is enough for them. That’s a contestable position and I’m sure one that plenty of people would disagree with. But as with the fight American Democrats have about Biden, there’s no point in advocating for doing something without advocating for a specific thing. Would Liberals With New Leader poll better than Liberals, led by Justin Trudeau? I’m sure they would. Does that mean anything? Fuck no.

I am clearly fed up with the current state of affairs and anyone who’s reading this site with regularity knows that my patience is up. But I have yet to be convinced that getting rid of Trudeau is the answer. If someone wants to convince me, it starts with showing they truly understand Quebec. Otherwise, you’re creating yet another problem.