Strategy Sessions: How To Maximize Dem House Chances

How To Optimize The 2022 Map

Strategy Sessions: How To Maximize Dem Chances In The House

Every time I write about the House, and specifically the best strategic decisions Democrats should make to hold the House, I get asked a version of the same question – “so what seats should they play for and which ones shouldn’t they?” It’s a fair question, sometimes asked in good faith and sometimes not, but it’s worth answering. My answer this whole time is that I’ll answer it once we have district lines, and with maps in a majority of states known, I can start to answer it.

I wrote last month in a column about the concept of the “suicide rush”, of a prospective fraternity brother pledging just one fraternity with no backup plan. If you get in the house you’re rushing, you’re good. If you don’t, you’re fucked, and it’s a good metaphor for the Democratic Party. Winning the House is the goal, and losing it by 4 seats or 14 doesn’t fucking matter, because what does matter is optimizing the chances you’ll win the damn chamber. And if that’s the goal, then Democrats have to be very, very careful in where they spend money, time, and resources.

Now, none of this is to say they will win the House if they play their hand perfectly – they’re clear and obvious favourites to lose the House, whether they act optimally or not. This is not about a prediction of the future, but a conversation about what should be done. That in mind, let’s suicide rush the marginals.

Leave The Oregon Delegation Alone

The most vulnerable seat in Oregon is a Biden +8.8% seat with a returning Democratic incumbent. Yes, losing a second seat in Oregon is theoretically possible -  we saw double digit Trump seats go in the landslide of 2018, and we just saw Virginia and New Jersey swing by more than that amount, but they have to be left alone. They can’t get outside money and they can’t get any high profile visits, either from Biden or the Cabinet. It can’t happen, because if the Oregon seats are competitive, the House is gone anyways, and spending to protect seat 202 or whatever on the pendulum, and the Oregon members are but an easy target for pre-emptive triage.

Fight For The Texas 15th

This Trump +3 South Texas Hispanic seat is probably going to elect a Republican, and even if we win it we will summarily lose it in 2024, making it a bit of an odd challenge, but I’m going to be contrarian here and say it’s worth fighting for, because this is the kind of seat where what we know is not much, but what we think we know is a lot, and maybe we’re not as smart as we think we are.

Nobody – and I do mean nobody – saw the Texas Hispanic swing coming to the degree that it did. I know I got caught out by it more than most, but nobody saw it coming, absolutely fucking nobody, and the evidence as to whether they’ll turn out in a midterm without a competitive statewide race is decidedly unclear. Whether or not their loyalty is to the now-former President or to the GOP is also in the air. Democrats are obviously underdogs, but these kinds of seats have to be considered to have a wide range of outcomes, just because of what we don’t know yet about the loyalty of these Hispanic voters, and we should use this chance to confirm our priors, or find out what we don’t know.

Prioritize Iowa (And Also Nebraska 2nd)

Protecting Cindy Axne in the Trump +0.4% Iowa 3rd is obviously going to be a high priority for the Democratic Party, but Iowa is potentially ripe for competitive races in two other districts. The 2nd, now the top right district of the four (thanks, Iowa, for fucking this up) and the southeastern 1st aren’t the world’s best targets, but it’s a state where local politics still matters and where Democrats just won 3 seats three years ago. If Democrats can run good candidates in these seats, it’s possible for them to be competitive – and they’re also cheap, which helps.

Being holistic about this process needs to keep in mind the damn certain fact that California and Florida are going to be big states with a lot of marginal seats, both potential offensive gains and defensive priorities, and those states are expensive as hell to advertise in. You’re gonna need to prioritize some cheap states too, and the Trump +3 and Trump +4 districts with first time incumbents in a cheap media market should be a priority.

Also, I’m unconvinced Don Bacon is particularly popular as opposed to Kara Eastman being an unfunded candidate in 2018 and then a bad one in 2020 as she ran away from her beliefs to try and seem more moderate. If I’m wrong I’m wrong, but Nebraska 2nd is a Biden district and trending our way in a cheap media market. I’d take my chances there.

Boost Tim Ryan And Cheri Beasley (Maybe)

Let me be very, very clear from the start here – Tim Ryan is not winning in Ohio, and Cheri Beasley probably is not winning in North Carolina. And, if the legislature-drawn maps are upheld in both these states, this point should be disregarded. But if there’s court-drawn maps, the fate of the House could, in some ways, be determined by how well these two Senate candidates do.

If the Supreme Courts of either or both of Ohio and North Carolina toss the gerrymanders passed by the GOP and institute fairer maps with a number of competitive seats, then how Beasley and Ryan do will matter, and the benefit of Ryan losing to Mandel by 4 and not 10 will manifest itself downballot. Similarly, Beasley managing to boost Black turnout might well help both in the cities and in whatever form the rural Black seat might take. It’s not a guarantee these maps get tossed, or that Ryan and Beasley can even hold the margins down, but if they can, and the maps are tossed, it might matter.

Also, if the Ohio map isn’t tossed, Steve Chabot down in OH-01 should be left alone – Cincinnati is too expensive to justify for a district that isn’t yet blue enough for us to credibly contend. He’s a 2024 target if the map isn’t tossed.

Concede The Wisconsin 3rd

We don’t have lines out of Wisconsin but it’s going to be the State Supreme Court who draws the lines and they’ve been clear that they will make minimal alterations to the map, which means the Trumpian, and getting more so, Wisconsin 3rd isn’t going to be saved. It’s going at some point, even if it survives one more cycle, and it’s a seat full of voters where we already know the trend – just look a state west, where we see what happened to the Minnesota 7th and 8th. It’s not going to be that aggressive, but without Kind running, it’s an easy triage if the Wisconsin Supreme Court doesn’t move it closer to Madison and make it substantially bluer. Yes, a 6-2 GOP delegation in a Biden state is offensive to the basic concept of democracy, but we can’t fight a morals fight.

Fight For Luria (But Not Wexton)

I swear to God, if Democrats give Jenn Wexton any money, I will break shit.

This isn’t that I don’t like her or I want her to lose, but she’s likely to be in a Biden +9 district (if the special master’s plan holds), and this is the Oregon argument again – if we’re losing these kinds of seats, who fucking cares. We’ll get it back in 2024 if we lose it with ease, and this is the perfect example of where not to spend.

Luria’s Virginia 2nd, a Biden +2 district with a Democratic incumbent? Perfect place to spend. I think she’s an underdog to win, but we’re underdogs to win the House, and if we want to win it again, we need to win seats where we’re underdogs currently. This is the perfect kind of “bellwether” seat, where the winner probably wins the House. If the GOP can’t beat Dem incumbents in Biden +2 seats, they’re not having a good night at all. It’s possible that the GOP could have a bad night and squeak to 220 seats, sure, but I think, on the states with maps finalized or close to it, Luria’s seat might be the one I’d like to know the answer to most to predict the rest of the map.

Think about it – if Republicans can’t win a Biden +2 seat with an incumbent, why should we think they can win Kim Schrier’s Biden +7 seat in Washington or whatever Biden seat they give Angie Craig in Minnesota? Conversely, why should Democrats feel good about beating any of the Biden-district Californians or Yvette Harrell in New Mexico if they can’t even keep Luria’s seat?

To be frank, Democrats are sizable underdogs next year, but that fact does not justify not defend bad practice by the political arms of the party, and failing to run optimal campaigns might put the party in a position where they look back at the results and think “if only we’d done better” when all the results came in. If Democrats want to give themselves the best chance at holding the majority, this is the beginning of the roadmap of how to do it.