Have followed you since the 2020 election cycle. I think you are basically correct in your underlying framework of a realignment moving educated people to the left and non-college grads to the right. I think where you have been caught off guard is how much the pull to the right is affecting not just non-college Whites. Non-college Latinos are also moving right. My own theory is that anti-Black racist feelings are very strong not just in non-college Whites (typical Confederate flag waving QAnon Let's Go Brandon group), but also with non-college Latinos. This is making the presumption that high-Latino states like NV AZ and TX will move further to the left over the next decade. Rising education is helping Dems, as is urbanization especially in TX and AZ, but this anti-Black backlash is an underestimated factor. Whether this ages out, as younger non-college Whites and Hispanics are less racist, blunts the GOP vote, will likely determine whether TX goes Blue in 2028.
I think Biden is well positioned for 2024, he will have created 16 million plus jobs, inflation under 3%, and budget deficit down. Should reelect easily and take House and Senate back.
I'm intrigued about whether ending Roe will help Dems in 2022.
Biden's approval rating should rise in next few months as inflation and pandemic subside and strong growth continues.
Dems in Senate in 2022 have a very favorable map. GOP could not get good candidates for NH GA AZ or NV, making it likely Dems can hold those seats and Senate control. They have good pickup chances in NC PA and WI. OH and MO could nominate some serious whackos, but crazy enough to let the Dems pull a McCasskill? And what if Trump seriously shows an interest in being speaker. House races may then turn on the question of whether the GOP candidate will openly support a Speaker Trump, putting them in a difficult bind.
Evan.
Have followed you since the 2020 election cycle. I think you are basically correct in your underlying framework of a realignment moving educated people to the left and non-college grads to the right. I think where you have been caught off guard is how much the pull to the right is affecting not just non-college Whites. Non-college Latinos are also moving right. My own theory is that anti-Black racist feelings are very strong not just in non-college Whites (typical Confederate flag waving QAnon Let's Go Brandon group), but also with non-college Latinos. This is making the presumption that high-Latino states like NV AZ and TX will move further to the left over the next decade. Rising education is helping Dems, as is urbanization especially in TX and AZ, but this anti-Black backlash is an underestimated factor. Whether this ages out, as younger non-college Whites and Hispanics are less racist, blunts the GOP vote, will likely determine whether TX goes Blue in 2028.
I think Biden is well positioned for 2024, he will have created 16 million plus jobs, inflation under 3%, and budget deficit down. Should reelect easily and take House and Senate back.
I'm intrigued about whether ending Roe will help Dems in 2022.
Biden's approval rating should rise in next few months as inflation and pandemic subside and strong growth continues.
Dems in Senate in 2022 have a very favorable map. GOP could not get good candidates for NH GA AZ or NV, making it likely Dems can hold those seats and Senate control. They have good pickup chances in NC PA and WI. OH and MO could nominate some serious whackos, but crazy enough to let the Dems pull a McCasskill? And what if Trump seriously shows an interest in being speaker. House races may then turn on the question of whether the GOP candidate will openly support a Speaker Trump, putting them in a difficult bind.