"barring the reversal of the Global Realignment" - what are the odds that this will happen, and the conditions ? I would say very likely, and if the Democrats really implement different policies. I say that because I live in a country where the Global Realignment was reversed before it even happened - Brazil. Here the "socially liberal" middle class (who supported gay rights, and abortion, etc) reverted to infuriated social conservatism as soon as they understood that left of the centre policies bring undesirables to their neighbourhoods, workplaces, colleges, transportation means. And they started believing in God, family values, flat Earth, whatever, when they realised this is necessary to keep their domestic workers from pursuing better labour options. And so we got Bolsonaro, and physicians who support cloroquine, lawyers who hate the constitution, engineers who think the Earth is flat, and so on.
Great, great post. I’d love to see this same analysis applied to Georgia. One thing that’s occurred to me recently is what a great ticket Biden, Ossoff and Warnock made in 2020. Can we repeat our success in ‘22 with just one (Warnock) of those three on the ballot?
"barring the reversal of the Global Realignment" - what are the odds that this will happen, and the conditions ? I would say very likely, and if the Democrats really implement different policies. I say that because I live in a country where the Global Realignment was reversed before it even happened - Brazil. Here the "socially liberal" middle class (who supported gay rights, and abortion, etc) reverted to infuriated social conservatism as soon as they understood that left of the centre policies bring undesirables to their neighbourhoods, workplaces, colleges, transportation means. And they started believing in God, family values, flat Earth, whatever, when they realised this is necessary to keep their domestic workers from pursuing better labour options. And so we got Bolsonaro, and physicians who support cloroquine, lawyers who hate the constitution, engineers who think the Earth is flat, and so on.
Great, great post. I’d love to see this same analysis applied to Georgia. One thing that’s occurred to me recently is what a great ticket Biden, Ossoff and Warnock made in 2020. Can we repeat our success in ‘22 with just one (Warnock) of those three on the ballot?