Hi, Evan! I have a hard time understanding how it's possible to predict which races will be competitive in a world where polls can fail to predict election outcomes so dramatically. What data are used when deciding which races are competitive? Does everyone usually agree on which races will be competitive?
The answer is "baseline partisanship rules all and Dems should heavily discount candidates in red areas even if they raise good money or have a decent internal poll"
I think I get what you mean. I'd like to understand the math in a bit more detail, though. Do you have any pointers for me? Thanks for the fast response btw!
Hi, Evan! I have a hard time understanding how it's possible to predict which races will be competitive in a world where polls can fail to predict election outcomes so dramatically. What data are used when deciding which races are competitive? Does everyone usually agree on which races will be competitive?
The answer is "baseline partisanship rules all and Dems should heavily discount candidates in red areas even if they raise good money or have a decent internal poll"
I think I get what you mean. I'd like to understand the math in a bit more detail, though. Do you have any pointers for me? Thanks for the fast response btw!