Tariffs For The Asking

On Going All In To Fight Them

Friday, Donald Trump confirmed (as much as any Donald Trump acts as confirmation of anything, I guess) that there will be 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as of today. Now, there’s no implementation order yet, so it’s unclear whether these are operative yet, or whether they will be as of the time most of you are reading this. But they’re coming, as sure as we can be, and the question of Canada’s response is looming.

Some people seem to be advocating for some amount of surrender - a belief that Canada is too small to force Trump to back down, so therefore we must take it and hope that he decides to give us mercy at some point - and it’s eminently misguided. Those advocating for limited retaliation seem to be arguing for not taking more harm than necessary, out of the belief that the incursion of more pain through retaliation has no chance of achieving a better outcome. But it’s a flawed argument.

I dabble in the game of poker sometimes, so let’s use a metaphor here. Yes, Canada doesn’t have a great set of cards - call it 6-7 on suit - nor the most chips at the table, but the thing is, it’s not just the cards you have, but how you play them. And it’s pretty clear to me that those asking Canada to fold have never sat down at the table before, because expecting us to fold to limit the damage is the exact way you get blinded out.

What Canada needs to do in the face of tariffs is not give up and meekly tolerate this shit, but fight strongly, and smartly. If we let the tariffs eat us alive, there’s no road back. So instead of trying to win from weakness, let’s try some strength - and go all in.

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Chrystia Freeland is half right with her idea - I like the idea of tariffs that are specifically designed to exact the most pain possible, but she wasn’t nearly creative enough with her list of targets. Let’s get fun with it, because if we can’t use a global economic calamity to fuck with some right wing nutters, when can we?

I totally love the idea of a Tesla tariff to fuck Elon, but let’s go further with it. Ivanka Trump has a fashion line, let’s tariff the shit out of her products just for fun. Elon obviously wants to sell Teslas here, let’s exempt them from all EV subsidies for the duration of the tariff war. Hell, let’s even go after some of the favoured Trumpian billionaires, like investor Bill Ackman. His portfolio has ample opportunities to be targeted.

If you think that’s petty, of course it is, but if you want to get Donald Trump to take you seriously, go after the people who have Trump’s ear. If Ackman, Musk, and Ivanka want the tariffs to go away because they are getting fucked by them, that’s a lot more likely to affect change than some Senator or Congressman yelling for change. That kind of targeted approach can be replicated across a wide range of people, applying the pressure points for American players to stop this.

There’s plenty of other options on the table too - export tax on oil and potash, fucking American companies out of Quebec aluminum, destroying the integrated auto industry - that are worthy and should be considered. Alberta will scream bloody murder, and the Feds should absolutely promise to waive environmental review for Northern Gateway if Alberta can get Indigenous communities on board, but there’s very clearly a way to exact a lot of pressure.

But let’s be clear here - Canada not having a perfect hand isn’t the same thing as saying we have no leverage. We have plenty of it, and it comes from a single fact - Donald Trump doesn’t have the stomach for a real trade war. He is, at his core, a wannabe business tycoon who wants Wall Street and rich people to love him. Going back to the 90s, he’s always craved their respect. Now, he seems to have it, or at least he can lie to himself and say he does.

But, the thing is, those people don’t want this. The Dow Jones is likely to close down, what, a thousand points Monday if this goes through, maybe 1500? What happens when it’s week 3 of this thing and hundreds of billions of dollars are wiped out because Trump won’t back down? You think all these CEOs currently sucking up to Trump are going to continue doing it?

The other key point is to try and drive Trump’s approval rating down. We know, as much as he tries to claim that he doesn’t care about the polls or the fake news coverage, Trump is too obsessed with and hurt the words of the Times and the Post and the Journal to ever genuinely be okay driving his approvals into the ground for an ideological passion. Making this hurt, and especially hurting key rust belt swing states, is a legitimate tactic to ending this.

Various complaints about dependence, or more accurately over dependence, on the US ignores a basic truth, which is that whatever your thoughts on how we got here, we are unfortunately here. Complaining about how we got here or litigating the decisions of the 80s and 90s isn’t an answer. The government has to go on from where it is, and right now the only answer is to fight fire with fire.

We don’t have a lot to lose - yes, the economic losses of a full fledged war with retaliation are worse, but the benefits of winning far outweigh the incremental loss from single sided damage to double sided. That key point is important to remember - yes, we might suffer more damage, but the bulk of the damage comes at the point at which Donald Trump decided to be insane, not at the moment we decided to retaliate. In the same way, going all in at the table looks risky, until you realize that the moment you’re down on chips you’re likely to be bled out unless you’re bold.

I’m not pretending this is a strategy that will comprehensively beat Trump, but there isn’t a strategy that will do that. Anybody who is claiming that there is some brilliant solution is lying to you. The problem is that America elected a nutbar wanna fascist who thinks that the late 1800s were a boom time in America. That’s not the fault of any Canadian PM, and if Trump comes back at a theoretical Prime Minister Poilievre with some bullshit in 2 years I’ll say the same thing.

But there is a tariff strategy that gives us a chance. Targeting companies of key Trump allies, forcing a market reaction, and tanking Trump’s approvals are a coherent strategy that has a chance to work. I don’t know for sure it will. But it’s one hell of a better shot than giving up and sucking your thumb. The pathetic notion of taking this like a subservient underling is so fundamentally unserious as to be beneath this country, and those that advocate surrender or acquiescence shall be remembered as cowards and traitors. Get on board or get the fuck out of the way.