The Cabinet Carney Might Build

On Options For Friday

One of Ottawa’s favourite pastimes is fantasy Cabinet making, and Friday sees Mark Carney’s decisions become clear. I’d pretend this is anything resembling a work of great genius, but I spent the night thinking through this so I might as well go through it.

This isn’t quite a prediction and this isn’t quite what I’d do. It’s a hybrid, a combination of people I think need to stay in their jobs because we’re in an emergency and a list of people who would be good in their spots. To be clear - I would not make the cabinet this small, but all indications are a very small cabinet. So, I’ve got 18 names in this. Not every position will be widely illuminated, because sometimes the answer is that Person X gets Job Y because that’s what is left.

Let’s have some fun, eh?

Dominic LeBlanc - Minister Of Finance And Intergovernmental Affairs

You can’t move LeBlanc in a crisis. Even if I thought less of LeBlanc’s job - and I think he’s been quite good! - you can’t move your point person at this stage. He’s locked in, and there’s really just nothing to be done about it even if you wanted to (and I don’t).

David McGuinty - Minister of Public Safety And Emergency Preparedness

You also can’t move your Minister of Public Safety you just hired in December in a crisis where the Americans keep saying it’s about the border. It’s not, obviously, but I don’t want a new Minister having to get up to speed here, and McGuinty is a serious player in Ottawa.

Melanie Joly - Minister Of Foreign Affairs And International Trade

I will listen to a case for moving Joly, who I am not a particular fan of, but I do think swapping out a Foreign Minister who has been handling this crisis and coordinating with allies abroad requires a high threshold to fail. It’s also not without mentioning that Joly is a Quebecer and a woman, and demoting either of those things is not a particularly great look. If I were doing it I’d fire her, but I don’t think Carney will, especially since Joly was a very early endorser of his.

Francois-Philippe Champagne - Minister of Defence And International Development

The first change so far, I’m booting Bill Blair the fuck out of Cabinet and bringing in a Cabinet heavy hitter. FPC has worked with Industry over the years and will be able to transfer a lot of those contacts towards ramping up production of munitions, weapons, and various physical procurement projects, including working with nominally non-defence companies to strengthen defence industries. He has good relations worldwide from his time as Foreign Affairs Minister as well, which is good for negotiating supply deals and other bilateral or multilateral agreements.

He also gets International Development mostly because I already double bunked Joly with Trade.

Nate Erskine-Smith - Minister of Housing, Infrastructure, and Communities

I don’t really think I need to illuminate this point again but if he’s not in Cabinet I’m going to riot. He is a key voice on the left of the party, a great communicator, and also a younger Liberal who gets Housing issues better than almost anyone in the party, if not actually anybody. It has to be Nate. It has to be Nate.

Anita Anand - Minister of Justice, Attorney General, and Internal Trade

Another site favourite, Anand needs to keep her Internal Trade portfolio because she’s quite good at it, but we also need an Attorney General who’s a lawyer and in a slimmed down Cabinet lawyers I was willing to contemplate moving were slim. Anand is one of the government’s best performers and she deserves a promotion - and a title that conveys the gravitas she deserves.

Steve MacKinnon - Minister of Industry, Innovation, And Science, and Quebec Lieutenant

Were just hitting the trifecta of site favourites in a row here, but MacKinnon is a smart operative who can capably shift into FPC’s shoes and get on top of all of the various efforts to strengthen industry and competitiveness in Canada. His business background and reputation for competence - this is the man who ran the 2013 Liberal Leadership race that went off without a hitch - make him a good fit for this department, as well as keeping a Quebecer in the job as we try and manage impacts of industrial policy that may be quite devastating to Quebec.

I’d also make Steve Quebec Lieutenant - he’s turned a once competitive seat into a fiefdom in Gatineau, he’s a great organizer and strategist, and he was very early on Carney’s side in the leadership race.

Karina Gould - Minister of Public Services, Procurement, Families, Children, And Social Development

I have had a stick up my ass about the way this government has split up Employment and Social Development Canada for years now, and in an ideal world I’d undo all the damage but now’s not the time. Gould’s best topic is Child Care and her building out of the deals across the country and she is a great saleswoman for that pitch. She is passionate about her status as a mother and it’s a great department to sell that message.

In addition, she gets the artist formerly known as Public Works, whereby having a younger Minister maybe we can convince the government to run on computers that aren’t 15 years old and tech systems that are bleeding us dry. If she got more than 3.2% I’d give her an actual big job but I’m under no obligation to do so because she flopped.

Jonathon Wilkinson - Minister of Energy and Natural Resources and Environment and Climate Change

I’m double bunking Energy and Environment in Wilkinson’s capable hands because it frees up the ability to fire Steven Guilbeault into the sun while ensuring that there is someone who cares about climate change in an important role as conversations about energy policy and emissions reductions happen.

Patty Hadju - Minister of Crown-Indigenous Affairs, Indigenous Services, and Northern Affairs

I get the decision to split Indigenous Affairs into two Ministers and actually think it’s a good idea, but I can’t justify some of the other consolidations that have and will continue to happen and have this split still. Hadju is the only Northern Ontarian in this proposed Cabinet, and has built credibility with Indigenous communities that will be valuable to retain in the position.

Ruby Sahota - Minister Of Employment, Workforce Development, and Labour and Minister of Democratic Institutions

Sahota has followed in Steve MacKinnon’s footsteps enough times that she might as well do so again. She’s whip smart, competent, and also ensures Peel has a Cabinet Minister.

Terry Duguid - Minister Of Health and Minister of Sport

Mark Holland endorsed Chrystia Freeland so he’s probably on the way out of Cabinet. We need a Manitobian in the Cabinet, he is currently in the Cabinet, and Health is a job where his low profile approach to politics will work well.

Anna Gainey - Minister of Heritage

One of two promotions I’m predicting, this makes a lot of sense on its merits but also makes sense if you know anything about Liberal kremlinology. Gainey, the former Party President who won a byelection last year, is incredibly smart, passionate, and as the daughter of Canadiens legend Bob Gainey understands Montreal and Quebec quite well. I’m sure she would be very good in the Heritage portfolio.

She is also married to Tom Pitfield, data scientist extraordinaire and key player in Carney’s orbit. Multiple things can be true; if Gainey gets a job she absolutely deserves it on merit and she is a credible Minister. She’s also married to one of the most senior people in Carneyworld.

Draw your own conclusions.

Patrick Weiler - Minister of Fisheries, Oceans, Coast Guard, and National Revenue

This could also be the Granville House Flipper, but I am choosing to believe that one of the few Liberals to actually stand up against Justin Trudeau’s stupid insistence to run again and put his ass on his line for the good of the party gets the second BC Cabinet job.

Ginette Petitpas Taylor - President Of The Treasury Board

She’s competent and has a job that is in the Venn Diagram of Important and Not Politically Sexy so nobody wants it. She can stay.

Jean-Yves Duclos - Minister of Immigration and Official Languages

Duclos should have been Immigration Minister this entire time - Marc Miller, who we will return to at the end of this piece, was never the right messenger to sell the message of immigration reduction. It was clear to me in 2023 that we needed to move on the issue and having Miller, a bleeding heart liberal at his core, trying to sell a message he hated was never going to work.

Duclos is boring and staid in English but that’s fine at this portfolio. He will lend the government credibility on a bad issue for them and he’s great in French. Let’s rock and roll.

Joanne Thompson - Minister of Agriculture and Seniors

Congrats to the only Newfoundland Liberal recontesting their seat at the next election, you’re in Cabinet.

Darren Fisher - Minister of Transport and Veterans Affairs

Congrats to the most competent Nova Scotia Liberal whose wife doesn’t despise the idea of their husband being a Cabinet Minister. (Miss you Sean.)

..

There are, obviously, plenty of names currently in jobs that aren’t under this plan. Some - Guilbeault, Holland, Blair - are gleeful omissions, opportunities to send disasters out to sea and let them sink like the jackasses and incompetents they are. Others - Jenna Sudds, Marc Miller, Rachel Bendayan - are sad realities of the small cabinet construct.

If I was running the country I’d probably do 22 members of Cabinet, include Sudds, Miller, Bendayan, and Chrystia Freeland, and call it a day, but I’m not. This 18 person cabinet is close to gender neutral (10 men 8 women), geographically balanced (7 provinces represented with broad representation in Quebec and Ontario), and less shit than the current one. It’s a win.

This will either look prophetic or idiotic in a day, but such is life. This is the Cabinet Carney Might Build.